Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[NEOH]

I don't get it. Why is it with the last storm, there was 100% model consensus for days of a significant snowstorm of 6-12", yet no warning was issued until the storm was over?

 

Yet, with this storm there is no model consensus, very few models even show it snowing in northeast Ohio more than an inch, yet a winter storm warning is issued? I really don't understand CLE.

 

... And with that the GFS finally jumps ship and caves drastically NW. I don't think there's a model left that shows snow here for this storm.

 

18z GFS is definitely NW of the 12z run... but not sure what the temps look like. Borderline at best though I'd bet. Ice cover on Lake Erie ftw... allowing the cold air to seep further south?

 

Honestly. I think CLE just followed the WPC storm track, and forecast. And boosted snow totals based on "wrap around" and LES. We should have a 6-12 hour window of favorable lake enhancement before winds shift offshore. Who knows... just a wag.

[NEOH]

interesting that CLE is going with a warning all the way down to Knox County....obviously not buying the nam or the 12z euro.  

 

Ride it and run. CLE is a mess these days.

[OHweather]

This should be an advisory for 1-2" of wind driven snow with wind chill warnings kicking in Monday morning for Cleveland. Ugh

[Shsg Falls]

I don't get it. Why is it with the last storm, there was 100% model consensus for days of a significant snowstorm of 6-12", yet no warning was issued until the storm was over?

 

Yet, with this storm there is no model consensus, very few models even show it snowing in northeast Ohio more than an inch, yet a winter storm warning is issued? I really don't understand CLE.

 

... And with that the GFS finally jumps ship and caves drastically NW. I don't think there's a model left that shows snow here for this storm.

 

It's a shame certain NWS WFO's can't hire better forecasters.  There is so much talent out there and so many underemployed or unemployed operational meteorologists, to have meteorologists on staff that frequently seem to do much worse than numerical model consensus...well, it seems just silly (not to mention a waste of taxpayer money).

[Trent]

And the GFS just ticked a hair to the NW moving most of the Cleveland area out of anything more than 2" from this. It actually looks like a soaker tomorrow. I'm sure tonight's euro will follow suit with a tick to the NW move.

 

Meanwhile, the NWS forecast calls for 100% chance of heavy snow tomorrow, with no mention of rain. I can't wait to read the discussion tomorrow morning. I'm curious what CLE will do with the winter storm warnings? I bet they'll keep them going, citing that the 1-3" that falls on the backside will drift a lot and we'll have record breaking cold and wind chills. It's funny how so much time was spent in previous AFDs discussing why the last storm wasn't worthy of a warning.

 

I'd love to have egg on my face come Monday. But, I think it's game over. The NW trends can't be denied. Perhaps there'll be some miracle LES/enhancement early on Monday, but with Western Basin frozen over, I wouldn't bank on much.

[Trent]

Just watched the local news. The snow is being HYPED. If the NAM solution verifies, wow, people will be enraged at weathermen in these parts.

Heavy rain is going to catch people off guard tomorrow.

[OHweather]

Just watched the local news. The snow is being HYPED. If the NAM solution verifies, wow, people will be enraged at weathermen in these parts.

Heavy rain is going to catch people off guard tomorrow.

I saw some of the forecasts the local news stations were putting out and shook my head. Here's what I settled on for the website I forecast for earlier this evening, and I'm honestly concerned this may be too high for the most part after the 0z models! (although we're going to let this ride). I mentioned a several hour period of light rain Sunday afternoon and evening for most and said highs may approach the mid 40's in YNG. Quite the contrast from channel 8 which had a horrid map up this evening.

 

 

MODIS imagery does show that the ice was broken up nicely by Saturday's strong southerly winds so there should be some open water, enough for enhancement east of Cleveland for about 6 hours Sunday night into early Monday before winds go more WSW and push any LES out over the lake.

 

CLE will let the warnings roll I'd think even though they should've never been issued east of Lorain this afternoon. Yes it will be windy and very cold, but it won't be windy enough to blow around a whopping 2" of snow to the point where a WSW can be justified for this.

[Shsg Falls]

Here is the FOX 8 forecast.

Already 33 F I n Chagrin at 3 a.m., that's our NWS forecast high for the day.

Remember a few days ago when NWS CLE has talking about the high possibility of heavy lake effect snow? Oy vey!

[Trent]

I saw some of the forecasts the local news stations were putting out and shook my head. Here's what I settled on for the website I forecast for earlier this evening, and I'm honestly concerned this may be too high for the most part after the 0z models! (although we're going to let this ride). I mentioned a several hour period of light rain Sunday afternoon and evening for most and said highs may approach the mid 40's in YNG. Quite the contrast from channel 8 which had a horrid map up this evening.

 

snow 1-5 no neo.png

 

MODIS imagery does show that the ice was broken up nicely by Saturday's strong southerly winds so there should be some open water, enough for enhancement east of Cleveland for about 6 hours Sunday night into early Monday before winds go more WSW and push any LES out over the lake.

 

CLE will let the warnings roll I'd think even though they should've never been issued east of Lorain this afternoon. Yes it will be windy and very cold, but it won't be windy enough to blow around a whopping 2" of snow to the point where a WSW can be justified for this.

 

Good call. I woke up early this morning and had to read the AFD. Seems the thinking is no different. My point and click forecast remains the same, no mention of rain.

 

I'd love to say, wow, they were right tonight, but that's going to take a wild 150 mile last minute shift with the low pressure.

 

That small window of lake effect/enhancement might be the saving grace in the pre dawn hours. We surely aren't getting the snow from the synoptic stuff, but hopefully we can wring out up to 4" of lake effect.

[NEOH]

30.8/18 Imby this morning. If we are going to see any snow, that small window of lake enhancement is going to have to deliver.... Unles the low suddenly tracks 100 miles east as Trent mentioned. What a bummer.

[Shsg Falls]

Port Clinton has been rain all morning:

 

 

 

KPCW 051334Z AUTO 17005KT 10SM -RA SCT038 OVC050 01/M02 A3000 RMK AO2
KPCW 051314Z AUTO 17006KT 10SM OVC050 00/M02 A3000 RMK AO2 $
KPCW 051254Z AUTO 17007KT 10SM OVC050 00/M01 A3000 RMK AO2 T00001011 $
KPCW 051234Z AUTO 18006KT 10SM OVC050 M01/M01 A3001 RMK AO2 $
KPCW 051214Z AUTO 18006KT 10SM OVC048 M01/M02 A3002 RMK AO2 $
KPCW 051154Z AUTO 17005KT 10SM -DZ OVC048 M01/M02 A3000 RMK AO2 56012
KPCW 051134Z AUTO 17004KT 10SM -DZ OVC046 M01/M02 A3000 RMK AO2
KPCW 051108Z AUTO 17006KT 4SM -RA BR FEW019 BKN028 OVC048 M01/M02 A3001
KPCW 051049Z AUTO 16006KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR BKN019 OVC026 M01/M02 A3001 RMK
KPCW 051030Z AUTO 18006KT 3SM -RA BR SCT017 BKN021 OVC028 M01/M02 A3000
KPCW 051014Z AUTO 18006KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR FEW021 OVC028 M01/M02 A3000 RMK
 

[Trent]

Is that a new AWOS station? I've always found it odd that there was nothing between LPR and TDZ.

 

The NAM holds firm in keeping snow out of northeast Ohio. But it really beefs up the totals in NW Ohio with the razor thin gradient to nothing. NAM really doesn't show much in the way of lake enhancement, which could be another over initialization of ice cover if a lot was broken up yesterday.

[Trent]

I just happened to check my NWS forecast. Snow totals were bumped up to 6-12" by tomorrow evening! This now includes the mention of rain mixing in this evening.

 

Looks like it's all model guidance vs the NWS. Going to be an epic model failure here or an epic public forecast failure.

[OHweather]

Their AFD this morning mentioned rain to start changing to snow this afternoon due to evaporational cooling. Interesting that there was no mention of WAA along and east of the low track

 

It looks like they bring more mixing in tonight but still have way too much snowfall and don't bring the mixing far enough west. What a clusterf*** by CLE. I'm sure that among the several forecasters who have been in since the warnings were issued yesterday at least one of them said "what are we doing, we won't get this much snow, why do we have winter storm warnings out, why don't we have mixing or rain in the forecast?"...right?

[Trent]

Their AFD this morning mentioned rain to start changing to snow this afternoon due to evaporational cooling. Interesting that there was no mention of WAA along and east of the low track

 

It looks like they bring more mixing in tonight but still have way too much snowfall and don't bring the mixing far enough west. What a clusterf*** by CLE. I'm sure that among the several forecasters who have been in since the warnings were issued yesterday at least one of them said "what are we doing, we won't get this much snow, why do we have winter storm warnings out, why don't we have mixing or rain in the forecast?"...right?

 

It's bizarre really. It's been like this for years. The obvious misses are hyped up warnings. The obvious hits are downplayed to non events. It's almost cyclical. They busted big time last week, so they over compensate for the next storm. That storm fails miserably, so they downplay the next one, which looks like an obvious big hit. 

 

Here are the updated storm total maps:

 

versus the old:

 

You'd think there must be some heated discussions in that office with that forecast. I'm surprised the local TV mets were hyping this up ... but that could be just a ratings ploy by the news managers. If you've got 4 lead stories for a major winter storm and you come on and say, well it'll be 37 and rain for most of Sunday, they won't be happy.

 

I can't wait to read the afternoon AFD, you'd think there'll be some adjustments?

 

Best case scenario, in my opinion, is about 4" of lake effect and enhancement from some back side snows during the early morning hours. This could effect the morning rush, you will have a flash freeze of all the rain that falls today, and the winds will whip whatever falls. So in this scenario the warning *could* be justified. But surely not for CLE's southern counties.

 

Worst case scenario is a half inch of fluff that blows around.

 

I would love to read a detailed AFD from CLE discussing why they are discounting the NAM, GFS, and Euro solutions.

[OHweather]

Ok, so at least CLE is "kind of" lowering totals...but still not nearly enough. Temperatures are sitting in the mid 30's and the low pressure hasn't even made its move north yet.

 

There is some potential for lake enhancment late tonight into tomorrow morning, and I'd agree with you that given the rapid temp drop and winds to go along with any snow that IF we can get even just 2-4" of lake enhanced snow heading into the rush hour that the warning would be justified for the Snowbelt. The only shot at the warning being justified elsewhere is from like Sandusky to Marion points west. This has been just such a cluster by CLE. I know that there are some decent mets there who have common sense, and if I were one of them I'd surely be heated right now. There was modest evidence of decent snows for Cleveland through yesterday morning, but by yesterday afternoon the strong trend NW was clear...but that didn't stop CLE! This handling is arguably worse than last week's non-warning situation by CLE...at least last week they got the snow amounts right, even if they refused to issue a warning for some silly reason until the last 10% of the storm.

 

If CLE just continues to let things roll this afternoon with no cut back of snow amounts, no discussion of rain in the forecast or AFD, I'll pronounce them blind. It's literally like they haven't looked at anything in 48 hours and is extremely frustrating.

[zero26800]

It's going to be close in any case...

[NEOH]

Up to 35.5/25 IMBY. Just noticed this from CLE. Surprise, surprise...

 

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND CONSEQUENTLY PRECIP TYPE...WIND CHILLS AND SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. WARM AIR IS MIXING IN ACROSS THE EAST WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN LIKELY AS PRECIP MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. NO CHANGE TO THE "BIG PICTURE" HOWEVER WITH VERY COLD AIR...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW AS WELL AS DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.

 

Latest snowfall map has reduced the snow to 4-6 in this area. Which is generous. Looked at the cobb output and winds will only be favorable for 3-5 hours for most of us. They shift quickly to 250 or so... taking even Ashtabula out of the game.

 

What a colossal failure of forecasting by CLE. Maybe we'll all be surprised and wake up to the forecasted snowfall amounts... about the same chance as winning the lottery, if not worse.

 

[Trent]

What a joke and an embarrassment. Did CLE even look at a model yesterday? Or even last night? Or even this morning?

 

I can only imagine what the water cooler talk will be all over northeast Ohio tomorrow. I'm curious how much the local news station mets will be downplaying the storm tonight.

 

New warning text for Cuyahoga and the snow belt is a more realistic 2-4". I don't think I've ever seen a warning issued for that low of an amount. And the amazing thing is that some models still show NO SNOW whatsoever for some folks. 

 

 

Yes folks, this is a winter storm warning for 2-4" over 4 days! 

 

 

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE
415 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* ACCUMULATIONS..SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO ERIE
COUNTY.

[OHweather]

Here's all CLE had to say this afternoon. They still have 2-4" or 4-6" for areas that will see mainly rain. Evidently wraparound flurries/snow showers now add up to 2-6"

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES INTO
THE EVENING. THINKING THAT SHOW WILL TAPPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING
FAR WEST BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
TEMPS TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BOTTOMING AROUND 0 TO
-5 FAR WEST AND IN THE MID TEENS EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE MOVING OUT MONDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH ENOUGH
REMAINS FOR CHANCE POPS INITIALLY WEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH THE DAY AND LEAVE HEADLINES UNCHANGED. FURTHER EAST
WILL CONTINUE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES
WITH WSW WINDS ON THE LAKE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE ON AMOUNTS AS THERE BECOMES INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SHEAR AND A TREND IN THE MODELS TO TAKE THE BANDS UP THE LAKE IN
SW FLOW. LOCAL HIGH REZ MODEL HOWEVER KEEPS BANDS CLOSE TO BUT
ONSHORE SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH EVOLUTION. TEMPS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES CONTINUE TO LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS SO NO BIG
DIFFERENCES IN TEMP FORECASTS.

 

[NEOH]

Precip about to start. Gonna need a miracle for more than 1-3" at this point. Perhaps a miraculous jog east by the storm and we'll be saved  .

 

Fyi... Kosarik and Kieltkya (sp?) have been the forecasters, and have been around forever. Shame they've taken on the typical government employee attitude and approach. An embarrassment to the profession to say the least.

 

Enjoy the storm all

[Trent]

Lakewood over to Bay Village are still in the 6-8" in that map! 

 

Currently, I'm sitting at 37, dewpoint of 31 with light rain. Unfortunately snow pack took a plunge today with all the settling and compaction. With that said, probably no blowing and drifting of the snow on the ground as it will become glazed over. We're probably looking at 0.45" of rain today and the NAM doesn't get it below freezing until about 1:30am tonight. Which means that CLE could record the day without a sub freezing temp.

 

What's even more puzzling is that the warning remains for the southern counties. 

 

Screenshot of the forecast as of 10am this morning for verification purposes:

 

[Shsg Falls]

36 degrees here in Chagrin with light rain for the last hour...temperatures are still slowly rising.

 

I wonder if the lack of "fresh" snowcover will keep the nighttime temperatures higher than forecast once the arctic airmass hits?

 

The 4:31 P.M. AFD from CLE is about as useful as a poop flavored lolly pop.

 

FXUS61 KCLE 052131
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
431 PM EST SUN JAN 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO THIS EVENING. AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW USHERING IN VERY COLD AIR TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WITH HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES INTO
THE EVENING. THINKING THAT SHOW WILL TAPPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING
FAR WEST BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE TO HEAVY FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL SHIFT EAST WITH RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN.
TEMPS TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BOTTOMING AROUND 0 TO
-5 FAR WEST AND IN THE MID TEENS EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP SYNOPTIC MOISTURE MOVING OUT MONDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH ENOUGH
REMAINS FOR CHANCE POPS INITIALLY WEST. WILL CONTINUE WITH BLOWING
SNOW THROUGH THE DAY AND LEAVE HEADLINES UNCHANGED. FURTHER EAST
WILL CONTINUE WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES
WITH WSW WINDS ON THE LAKE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. REMAINED
CONSERVATIVE ON AMOUNTS AS THERE BECOMES INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
SHEAR AND A TREND IN THE MODELS TO TAKE THE BANDS UP THE LAKE IN
SW FLOW. LOCAL HIGH REZ MODEL HOWEVER KEEPS BANDS CLOSE TO BUT
ONSHORE SO WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH EVOLUTION. TEMPS AND WIND CHILL
VALUES CONTINUE TO LOOK SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS SO NO BIG
DIFFERENCES IN TEMP FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
EXTENDED. ONE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER ON
SATURDAY. IT APPEARS IT WILL BE ALL SNOW WITH THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT STORM WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN THE THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
WARMER FOR THE STORM SYSTEM ON SATURDAY WITH RAIN OR A RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW POSSIBILITY. HIGHS BY SATURDAY MAY PUSH 40 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT 1745Z AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
IS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. ALL SNOW IS REPORTED WEST OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW EAST OF IT. SO WITH THAT SAID
WE BELIEVE NW OHIO WILL SEE ALL SNOW WITH A MIX TO RAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA. ALL LOCATIONS WILL SEE CEILINGS LOWER
TO AT LEAST MVFR LEVELS DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE HEAVIER SNOW
AND SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION MANY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE IFR
CEILINGS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE WEST WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REACH 5 TO 7 INCHES
OF SNOW.

AS THE LOW PASSES OVERNIGHT THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. THIS WILL CHANGE ALL LOCATIONS BACK OVER
TO SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS AND 1 TO
3 INCHES ACROSS THE EAST. SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ALTHOUGH THIS WILL ALL HINGE
ON THE AMOUNTS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THE WIND AND COLD WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL KEEP THE
KERI AREA IN SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER KERI COULD BE INTENSE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS NE OHIO
AND NW PA FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. MORE NON VFR
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY LATE IN THE EVENING WITH
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
SUNRISE. AS WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST THEY WILL
QUICKLY BECOME A GALE. GALES TO 35 KNOTS WILL RAMP UP TO 40 OR MAYBE
EVEN 45 KNOTS FOR A TIME MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THESE STRONG
WINDS AND THE FRIGID AIR WILL CAUSE FREEZING SPRAY. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND HOISTED THE GALE AND FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS. THE GALE STARTING
AT 09Z AND THE FREEZING SPRAY WARNING STARTING AT 12Z. ONE THING
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR WILL BE THE WATER LEVELS ACROSS
THE WESTERN BASIN. CURRENT FORECASTS PLACE THE WATER LEVELS 3+ FEET
BELOW SAFE SHIPPING LEVELS. BASICALLY A LOW WATER ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL FINALLY DROP OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT WILL THEN BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF WE GET A RAPID ICE UP
OF THE LAKE WITH THE LOWER WINDS EVEN AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RECOVER.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ011>014-
089.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ020>023-
029>033-037-038-047.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ020>023-029>033-037-038-047.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ003-006>010-
017>019-027-028-036.
WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-144>149-164>169.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM EST TUESDAY FOR LEZ061-
142>149-162>169.

&&

$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN

[Trent]

36 degrees here in Chagrin with light rain for the last hour...temperatures are still slowly rising.

 

I wonder if the lack of "fresh" snowcover will keep the nighttime temperatures higher than forecast once the arctic airmass hits?

 

It's possible, but probably not likely. The winds will be westerly and there will be fresh deep snow pack about 50 miles west of Cleveland all the way west and northwest to Canada. All that cold air will be racing eastward. It's not going to be radiational cooling, so the local effects of the air mass, with lack of fresh snow cover will probably be minimal.

[OHweather]

I may be remembering wrong but on January 16, 2009 CLE hit -13F and CAK hit -14F. I don't remember there being more than a couple inches of snow on the ground but again I may be remembering wrong. Despite the snow taking a hit today it should still be 2"+ deep even if we see nothing tonight.

 

I haven't seen a Kosarik or Kieltyka (I spelled it wrong too) in the AFD for 2-3 days so I'm not sure they were there. It's been all TK (who sometimes signs off as King) or DJB, both whom have been there for a while and I've never liked either one a whole lot. Even though those were the names signed off on the AFD's there were certainly other meteorologists there, and I know there are a few good mets there. I really do wonder if there was any intra-office discussion between mets over the last few days.

 

Many models try moving -30 to -34C 850mb temps overhead tomorrow night. The January 2009 event featured 850mb temps of -24 to -26C and the January 1994 event featured -30 to -35C 850mb temps. Neither of those two events were ratiational cooling events (winds stayed up with some clouds). Janaury 1994 yielded -20F at CLE and -25F at CAK...it'll be interesting to see just how cold we get. -10F is certainly a lock, -15F even at CLE is decently likely I think. We'll see if we can get colder.

 

Edit: The record low at CLE for Monday is -9...and -7 for Tuesday. I think we'll break both tomorrow evening.

[zero26800]

Rain and 35 here in kent. Temperature has dropped 2 degrees in the past hour. Possible that 32 is achievable before midnight

[OHweather]

Rain and 35 here in kent. Temperature has dropped 2 degrees in the past hour. Possible that 32 is achievable before midnight

I think you're wet bulb cooling right now. You may dip another degree or so but dew points are quickly coming up. A lot of locations upstream dropped around 2-3 degrees right as the rain moved in. As the low deepens and tracks to near CLE later I'd honestly expect you to start warming and reaching a temperature of 40 or so is decently possible I'd think.

[zero26800]

Goodbye wsw

[Trent]

new disco, glad that after two days, someone finally decided to look at something:

 

HAVE PULLED BACK ON THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR A CHUNK OF OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...RICHLAND/SUMMIT/TRUMULL AND POINTS SOUTHEAST.
AFTER LOOKING AT CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC/SURFACE OBS AND SOME NEAR
TERM HI RES GUIDANCE...BULK OF QPF WILL BE RAIN. THERE STILL WILL
BE A PERIOD OF SNOW AND TRAVEL WILL STILL BE IMPACTED...BUT
EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION MONDAY. ONE LINGERING CONCERN IS FOR
THE FAST FREEZE OF RAIN WATER ON ROADS AS THE TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
DROP WELL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT. THAT MAY POSE AN ADDITIONAL
DRIVING HAZARD. NO CHANGE WITH THE TEMPERATURE/WIND CHILL FORECAST
OR WITH THE WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND MOVED UP THE START OF THE WIND CHILL
WARNING TO PICK UP IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE WINTRY WX THREAT HAS
ENDED MONDAY.

 

 

[Trent]

I may be remembering wrong but on January 16, 2009 CLE hit -13F and CAK hit -14F. I don't remember there being more than a couple inches of snow on the ground but again I may be remembering wrong. Despite the snow taking a hit today it should still be 2"+ deep even if we see nothing tonight.

 

I haven't seen a Kosarik or Kieltyka (I spelled it wrong too) in the AFD for 2-3 days so I'm not sure they were there. It's been all TK (who sometimes signs off as King) or DJB, both whom have been there for a while and I've never liked either one a whole lot. Even though those were the names signed off on the AFD's there were certainly other meteorologists there, and I know there are a few good mets there. I really do wonder if there was any intra-office discussion between mets over the last few days.

 

Many models try moving -30 to -34C 850mb temps overhead tomorrow night. The January 2009 event featured 850mb temps of -24 to -26C and the January 1994 event featured -30 to -35C 850mb temps. Neither of those two events were ratiational cooling events (winds stayed up with some clouds). Janaury 1994 yielded -20F at CLE and -25F at CAK...it'll be interesting to see just how cold we get. -10F is certainly a lock, -15F even at CLE is decently likely I think. We'll see if we can get colder.

 

Edit: The record low at CLE for Monday is -9...and -7 for Tuesday. I think we'll break both tomorrow evening.

 

Yep. It looks like a double whammy record low. We'll probably sneak tomorrow's record in at 11:59pm, and then break Tuesday's at 12:00am.

 

There was a solid snowpack for the January 2009 cold spell. All in all, that month was very snowy. Looks like CLE had 9" of snow on the ground on Jan 16, 2009, with snow the preceding days and no major warmups prior. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KCLE/2009/1/19/MonthlyHistory.html