OHweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nice pics Trent. Certainly one of the better widespread storms across Northern Ohio since early 2011. It may be 5:10PM, almost 18 hours into this main round of snow, but CLE has finally issued a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nice pics Trent. Certainly one of the better widespread storms across Northern Ohio since early 2011. It may be 5:10PM, almost 18 hours into this main round of snow, but CLE has finally issued a warning I thought for sure the mid morning update would have done it. I thought for sure the afternoon package would have done it. But once again, it comes in near the tail end of the storm. At this point it was likely done for verification purposes. This storm pretty much played out exactly as the models had shown for the past 3 days. There were no surprises or any reason to be caught off guard by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 We drove westbound on the Shoreway at about 4:15PM and the Burke report of NNE winds of 27.6 mph with gusts to 41.4 mph seem very reasonable. Visibility from East 72 to the parking lot ramp near the Innerbelt turn was about 100 yards. On the N. marginal near that ramp were several cars in distress. From the ramp to East 9th visibility improved but the wind turbine was turned off. West Shoreway conditions were better to the Edgewater Park exit, then going up the hill towards the picnic area, the wind increase alot and visibility dropped to under 50 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 It just keeps on coming down. The wind is just brutal. Impossible to get a good measurement. I went through the backyard and found many depths of 13" and 14", the lowest I could find was 10", I'm going to call it 12" on the ground right now. Regardless of what the storm total ends up being, it's moot. This was the most significant widespread snowstorm in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Yeah, it's tough to measure. I'd guesstimate 6" since early this morning. Stronger bands have been confined west of here. They should move east as winds turn so a few more inches. I see cle reported 2.7 which is absurd. I'm sure the local news stations will call them out... It's out of the question the total was that low. All eyes on Sunday now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Much of this evening featured just light snow (small flakes) with some blowing as the best LES stayed to my west. 0.8" more this evening in Reminderville pushing me up to 6.3" for "round 2" and 10.0" for the "storm total" since Tuesday night. NAM wins this storm. Snow is actually picking back up here as the LES slowly shifts east. The snow is gradually dwindling but after driving on parts of 422, 271 and 480 in eastern Cuyahoga/NE Summit just a bit ago the visibility does still briefly get down to 1/4 of a mile in the heavier snow showers although blowing snow probably is helping that number. Looking at Sunday the 0z GFS has trended towards the Euro and is a bit stronger with the storm and while it keeps us all snow it does show us getting a bit of a dry slot, keeping totals in the 4-8" for most of us while much of western OH sees 8-14". I posted in the main "cold" thread, I think -10F to -15F for a low at CLE is very likely based on the numbers the models are spitting out at 850mb and past cold episodes (the coldest morning likely being Tuesday morning), with some small but certainly non-zero chance of -15 to -20F for a low Tuesday morning. Unless something on the colder end of guidance verifies (which is unlikely, I'd expect a few degrees of modification as we get closer to Tuesday) the all time record low of -20F should be safe...although the colder end of guidance would give us a shot at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Looks like a pretty widespread 5-9" with locally more across the lakeshore counties with "round 2" through last evening, so that forecast worked out pretty well. Given conditions I think some of those low numbers were due to low balling caused by measuring in areas where snow was blown away. Snow depth is a widespread 10-12" across the lakeshore counties. I'd assume parts of Lorain, Cuyahoga and possibly northern Medina/NW Summit added another 1 to locally 3" overnight. Looking back at my forecast, I think this one actually worked out well. I specifically said 7-13" for Cuyahoga County on Tuesday for the whole "event" (Tuesday night-Thursday night) and I do believe the entire county saw at least 7" and some spots certainly finished with near a foot. For Geauga County I went 9-16" expecting more LES than what occurred...although considering most of the county appeared to get at least 5-6" with round two (locally up to 9") and 3-4" with round one the lower end of that verified...although the winds never really came around to the NNW which kept the best LES west of Geauga and prevented too many spots from topping a foot. CLE's forecasted amounts did fairly well (they had 10-14" on their storm total graphic for the lakeshore counties heading in) but they waited too long to upgrade to a warning. The 0z Euro shows mixing on Sunday. The rest of the op models and Euro ensembles are a bit farther SE. Potential is certainly decent but if we do stay all snow, mixing won't be too far to our southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 My storm total from about 8pm on the 31st through this morning was 11.6". If it hadn't been for the 40 mph winds, accums would have been higher. The snow has that dense powdery look to it from blowing around everywhere. Had it been a gentle snowfall, surely would have had some more fluff to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Still snowing currently in Kent despite lacking "deep moisture" CLE favorite term yesterday. Will probably be ending soon though. Garfield Heights was doing well when I left yesterday about 6 inches on the ground, and added another 3 overnight. On to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Tricky to make a call for the official CLE total. The 31st featured a clipper in the morning and then the start of the main event around 8 pm. The 5 pm climate summary on the 31st showed 0.8" so I deducted that from the day's total. So that'd put CLE officially at 9.3" as of midnight. They might have tacked on a few tenths to possibly an inch since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 I think they haven't had to pull out the ruler in so long that they have been measuring with a pencil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'm going with a storm total of 11.9" IMBY. There was a pencil thin lake effect band over the area last night that put down more snow than expected. I may be off somewhat due to blowing but that's the best I could do. Still lightly snowing out there now. Hopefully we'll see a subtle shift SE with today's model runs. Going to a be a close call though as the euro doesn't want to back down. We can probably write-off any LES behind the storm as winds look to turn WSW'erly... and the lake probably will be iced over by that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 Just read CLE's and BUF's AFD... neither seem that excited about the Sunday storm. CLE mentions 2-4" or 3-5" regionwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Just read CLE's and BUF's AFD... neither seem that excited about the Sunday storm. CLE mentions 2-4" or 3-5" regionwide. Yea, I noticed that as well. I'm seeing a good 8'' for most of ohio with the exception of the southeast corner... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Just read CLE's and BUF's AFD... neither seem that excited about the Sunday storm. CLE mentions 2-4" or 3-5" regionwide.CLE is insane. We may need to watch for mixing in NE Ohio but farther west is a lock for all snow. Someone in their CWA sees 6-12" I think, just a matter of if it's Cleveland or Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 12z GFS, and to some degree the euro are still good for northern ohio... I'd feel a lot more comfortable with the gfs track. Just need the euro to budge a little further SE and we should be good for all snow. Otherwise I can see the WTOD creeping north to the 30 corridor (at least). I wonder if CLE will catch on later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 12z GFS, and to some degree the euro are still good for northern ohio... I'd feel a lot more comfortable with the gfs track. Just need the euro to budge a little further SE and we should be good for all snow. Otherwise I can see the WTOD creeping north to the 30 corridor (at least). I wonder if CLE will catch on later today? I'd be surprised if CLE issued a watch for areas east of I-71. They probably are planning on advisories which will be issued later on. CLE was already honking for 2-4 or 3-5 which is advisory level snow. I don't know why they are so conservative. I remember once hearing there was an old guy there who did not like snow and would minimize any winter storm. During the March 2008 storm, the CLE area had winter storm warnings while the entire rest of the state had blizzard warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 I'd be surprised if CLE issued a watch for areas east of I-71. They probably are planning on advisories which will be issued later on. CLE was already honking for 2-4 or 3-5 which is advisory level snow. I don't know why they are so conservative. I remember once hearing there was an old guy there who did not like snow and would minimize any winter storm. During the March 2008 storm, the CLE area had winter storm warnings while the entire rest of the state had blizzard warnings. Long time no post! You've gotta be enjoying the winter so far. Most of the people at CLE have been there forever... but there are a couple newbies as well. All appear to be quite inept at times. I would be surprised if they didn't issue a watch... perhaps the northern tier counties (NW PA on west). The signal is certainly there for a significant event. We'll be riding the edge as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 Long time no post! You've gotta be enjoying the winter so far. Most of the people at CLE have been there forever... but there are a couple newbies as well. All appear to be quite inept at times. I would be surprised if they didn't issue a watch... perhaps the northern tier counties (NW PA on west). The signal is certainly there for a significant event. We'll be riding the edge as usual. Thanks! Been loving this winter. Hope it keeps up after next weekend's warmup. Anyway, CLE could issue a watch, especially in light of how they had to backtrack and upgrade to a winter storm warning after so many obvious hours of heavy drifting snow, bitter temps and strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 3, 2014 Author Share Posted January 3, 2014 CLE put out a WSW for areas west of I-71 (good call LakeEffect OH). LES Watch for lakeshore counties which is odd considering the wind direction is out of the W-WSW, and the lake is primarily iced over from CLE westward. I'm sure there could be some moisture flux but after tonights temps it should be pretty solid. I'm not throwing in the towel on the storm until tonights model runs. Regardless, we'll be riding the line of heavy snow, slopfest or dry slot. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...FROM 8 TO 15 INCHES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.* TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.* WINDS...GENERALLY LIGHT SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 3, 2014 Share Posted January 3, 2014 CLE put out a WSW for areas west of I-71 (good call LakeEffect OH). LES Watch for lakeshore counties which is odd considering the wind direction is out of the W-WSW, and the lake is primarily iced over from CLE westward. I'm sure there could be some moisture flux but after tonights temps it should be pretty solid. I'm not throwing in the towel on the storm until tonights model runs. Regardless, we'll be riding the line of heavy snow, slopfest or dry slot. ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * ACCUMULATIONS...FROM 8 TO 15 INCHES FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. * TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. * WINDS...GENERALLY LIGHT SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. Just read the AFD...sounds like they will go with an advisory. They also said the wind direction looks favorable for LES, but yeah...a SW wind would send the LES up towards Buffalo I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 CLE has little idea what they're doing. My first concern is the system phases better and turns everyone east of CLE to rain for a time. My second concern is MODIS imagery clearly shows pretty solid ice from Cleveland west. The winds behind the storm may briefly be NNW for a time Sunday night but once the winds go W or WSW any lake effect would be confined to northern Ashtabula County points east up the shoreline given where there will actually be open water. So, the LES headline is useless. The winter storm watch placement is decent however unless the colder GFS pans out (which is still possible) their LES watch counties probably won't see 6"+. I want to see the 0z models before making a "call" but I'm thinking 3-6" for Lake, Geauaga, eastern Cuyahoga and northern Summit and 2-4" for southern Summit and Portage...and 4-8" for western Cuyahoga. I think parts of western Ohio top a foot. Hopefully the models settle on a solution tonight, and hopefully it's colder than what I'm going with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 CLE has little idea what they're doing. My first concern is the system phases better and turns everyone east of CLE to rain for a time. My second concern is MODIS imagery clearly shows pretty solid ice from Cleveland west. The winds behind the storm may briefly be NNW for a time Sunday night but once the winds go W or WSW any lake effect would be confined to northern Ashtabula County points east up the shoreline given where there will actually be open water. So, the LES headline is useless. The winter storm watch placement is decent however unless the colder GFS pans out (which is still possible) their LES watch counties probably won't see 6"+. I want to see the 0z models before making a "call" but I'm thinking 3-6" for Lake, Geauaga, eastern Cuyahoga and northern Summit and 2-4" for southern Summit and Portage...and 4-8" for western Cuyahoga. I think parts of western Ohio top a foot. Hopefully the models settle on a solution tonight, and hopefully it's colder than what I'm going with. Do you have any idea of Lake Eries ice coverage as of today? The local mets in this area are saying the worst winter conditions in a decade will be happening on Monday around this area. Calling for feet of new Lake Effect Snow temps in the single digits and winds 20-30 mph with gusts over 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Do you have any idea of Lake Eries ice coverage as of today? The local mets in this area are saying the worst winter conditions in a decade will be happening on Monday around this area. Calling for feet of new Lake Effect Snow temps in the single digits and winds 20-30 mph with gusts over 40. Here's today's MODIS imagery. Still plenty of open water for you guys so I could see a long duration LES event for the Buffalo area (maybe a bit south of town) that results in impressive totals. But for NE OH we need a NNW wind to pick up much moisture which we won't really get which is why I'm skeptical of CLE's watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Here's today's MODIS imagery. Still plenty of open water for you guys so I could see a long duration LES event for the Buffalo area (maybe a bit south of town) that results in impressive totals. But for NE OH we need a NNW wind to pick up much moisture which we won't really get which is why I'm skeptical of CLE's watch. Lake ice 1-3.png Thanks for the picture! I am 14 miles south of the City and was hoping to get one last hurrah storm before the lake effect season becomes nickel and dime type stuff through frictional convergence. You guys down there can still cash in from Huron even though Lake Erie is frozen over right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Thanks for the picture! I am 14 miles south of the City and was hoping to get one last hurrah storm before the lake effect season becomes nickel and dime type stuff through frictional convergence. You guys down there can still cash in from Huron even though Lake Erie is frozen over right? We can get the higher terrain to ring out light amounts on a NNW or N flow once Lake Erie freezes, but it's certainly not the same. I felt like this LES was active, but other than the October event nothing really "wow worthy" for us in NE OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Got stuck in traffic on the way home today. Here's a crappy cell phone pic I took of Lake Erie from I-90 this evening. Lots of chunky ice that was pushed to shore and froze over. I've got to imagine that things will really expand tonight. And by Wednesday evening, it's game over. If we're staying below zero for over a day, the entire lake will be an ice rink. Here's to a hopefully very snowy week in northeast Ohio (next Thursday looks like it could get real interesting). After that, I hope for 10 days of torch conditions to jostle up the ice. And as for the Huron connection stuff, it seems like it has been ages since there's been a Huron connection west of Ashtabula. I vaguely remember one over western Cuyahoga in early 2009. I think it may have dropped a very narrow 7" over the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 4, 2014 Author Share Posted January 4, 2014 Just noticed CLE changed the les watch to a wsw watch... Seems appropriate. Tonight's model runs should tell the story... Knowing that the euro ensembles are SE of of the op is good to know. The euro has been steady with this storm so no reason to abandon it. CLE indicated they are relying on the gfs and sref... Which isn't all that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 Hey BuffaloWeather, do you think a super event will set up on either Erie or Ontario after this storm, January 6, 7, or 8th? Like a 20" south of Buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectOH Posted January 4, 2014 Share Posted January 4, 2014 CLE has little idea what they're doing. My first concern is the system phases better and turns everyone east of CLE to rain for a time. My second concern is MODIS imagery clearly shows pretty solid ice from Cleveland west. The winds behind the storm may briefly be NNW for a time Sunday night but once the winds go W or WSW any lake effect would be confined to northern Ashtabula County points east up the shoreline given where there will actually be open water. So, the LES headline is useless. The winter storm watch placement is decent however unless the colder GFS pans out (which is still possible) their LES watch counties probably won't see 6"+. I want to see the 0z models before making a "call" but I'm thinking 3-6" for Lake, Geauaga, eastern Cuyahoga and northern Summit and 2-4" for southern Summit and Portage...and 4-8" for western Cuyahoga. I think parts of western Ohio top a foot. Hopefully the models settle on a solution tonight, and hopefully it's colder than what I'm going with. ...Sounds like you are not too impressed with all this. The schizo NAM is now showing snow totals as an inch or less for the CLE area. From what I've seen how these storms act, 9 times out of ten they end up a little further NW, hence an IND-ORD-DTW special while we end up with a rainer. Only time I remember the storm track shifting SE was the pre-Christmas 2004 storm which did end as freezing rain in the eastern and southeast areas of CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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