Trent Posted January 1, 2014 Share Posted January 1, 2014 It almost seems like CLE would upgrade to a warning at some point for tomorrow. If criteria is 6 inches in 12 hours, it looks like several areas would get 6" or more between 5am tonight and 5pm tomorrow to justify thresholds. And surely there will be areas that get 8" between 5am Thursday and 5am Friday. Record low at CLE on Tuesday is one of the relatively warmer ones for January. It'd only need to hit -7 to break a record (from 1884). Seems doable with a good snowpack. It wouldn't be an Ohio winter though, if the Euro wasn't right and we get washed out with rain on Sunday, melt some snow, and get hit with more brutal cold. I picked up an additional 1.1" today, which should do it for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 It almost seems like CLE would upgrade to a warning at some point for tomorrow. If criteria is 6 inches in 12 hours, it looks like several areas would get 6" or more between 5am tonight and 5pm tomorrow to justify thresholds. And surely there will be areas that get 8" between 5am Thursday and 5am Friday. Record low at CLE on Tuesday is one of the relatively warmer ones for January. It'd only need to hit -7 to break a record (from 1884). Seems doable with a good snowpack. It wouldn't be an Ohio winter though, if the Euro wasn't right and we get washed out with rain on Sunday, melt some snow, and get hit with more brutal cold. I picked up an additional 1.1" today, which should do it for a while. Not sure if you read the recent AFD but whoever is writing seems weary of the 2nd round snowfall... not to mention relatively incoherent. Really not sure what to expect... hopefully OHWeather's forecast verifies. My gut tells me another 3-5". Seems like the 2nd round has been delayed, but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not sure if you read the recent AFD but whoever is writing seems weary of the 2nd round snowfall... not to mention relatively incoherent. Really not sure what to expect... hopefully OHWeather's forecast verifies. My gut tells me another 3-5". Seems like the 2nd round has been delayed, but I could be wrong. Most of the models today have done a good job of holding off the snow till around midnight but still spit out around half an inch of new QPF so we'll see. The snow is starting to encroach on the Cleveland metro now. I think the key is getting 2-3" by morning because most of the hi-res models suggest possibly moderate snow for a good chunk of the day Thursday...which with ratios would hopefully spit out the 3-5" during the day tomorrow that I'm looking for. We'll know more by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Most of the models today have done a good job of holding off the snow till around midnight but still spit out around half an inch of new QPF so we'll see. The snow is starting to encroach on the Cleveland metro now. I think the key is getting 2-3" by morning because most of the hi-res models suggest possibly moderate snow for a good chunk of the day Thursday...which with ratios would hopefully spit out the 3-5" during the day tomorrow that I'm looking for. We'll know more by morning. Woke up to a tad over 2" last night. It's really blowing and drifting out there. There were a lot of spots on the driveway that had 3-4", but went with a conservative measurement. The snowboard I have turned out to be useless overnight with the gusty NE winds. Nonetheless snow depth in the yard ranges from 7-9" in the non drifty areas. I'm pretty shocked that CLE didn't upgrade to a warning. The AFD mentions snowfall rates. Since when do rates factor into a warning? I'm thinking areas near Toledo have got to be doing quite well with accumulations too. This system really points out the significant flaws of the winter weather headlines used in the midwest. They are arbitrary criteria that have no real impact on travel, road conditions, and sensible weather. The continuity at CLE is almost comical. Lake Effect Snow warnings dropped on a dime for the most marginal events, and once again another major winter storm is upon the entire region with nary a warning. Let's not forget the blizzard warning last Christmas for the storm that wasn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 We've gotta be at 10" here as a storm total, it midnight the official was 7" at the airport. I believe only having an advisory has hurt as the roads are nearly impassable out here in the country, looking on ODOT website main roads are quite bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Picked up just under 2" inches last... as of 6:30am. Snowing nicely now out in Chagrin, flake size has increased as well. My low ball call of 3-5" last night will bust. Still a long way to go and we'll probably see a few hours of heavy snow I would imagine as winds come around northerly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Finally picked up. Getting pretty heavy. Seeing some good bands set up on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Woke up to a tad over 2" last night. It's really blowing and drifting out there. There were a lot of spots on the driveway that had 3-4", but went with a conservative measurement. The snowboard I have turned out to be useless overnight with the gusty NE winds. Nonetheless snow depth in the yard ranges from 7-9" in the non drifty areas. I'm pretty shocked that CLE didn't upgrade to a warning. The AFD mentions snowfall rates. Since when do rates factor into a warning? I'm thinking areas near Toledo have got to be doing quite well with accumulations too. This system really points out the significant flaws of the winter weather headlines used in the midwest. They are arbitrary criteria that have no real impact on travel, road conditions, and sensible weather. The continuity at CLE is almost comical. Lake Effect Snow warnings dropped on a dime for the most marginal events, and once again another major winter storm is upon the entire region with nary a warning. Let's not forget the blizzard warning last Christmas for the storm that wasn't. I'm guessing CLE will upgrade to a warning for the lakeshore counties...Cuyahoga on east.Radar is looking impressive, and it's snowing hard under the lighter returns. Once winds turn more and lake enhacement kicks in it should pile up quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 As heavy as it is right now... No wsw.... What a joke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 00Z/2nd run of the ECMWF is colder than previous runs, looks like our coldest 850 hPa temperature will be about -28°C Monday night/Tuesday morning next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm reading the CLE AFD from Thursday morning, I assume the meteorologist meant west wind? .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A FAIRLY POTENT CLOSED LOW AT 500MB WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERNONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. THE LOW WILL PULL DOWN FRIGID ARCTIC AIR FROMTHE CANADIAN INTERIOR FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACHTHE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WEST AND TEENS IN THE EAST. MONDAY NIGHTLOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST SPOTS EXCEPT NEAR THE IMMEDIATELAKESHORE. A BRISK EAST WIND WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL MORE LIKE20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE DOWNRIGHTFRIGID AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'm reading the CLE AFD from Thursday morning, I assume the meteorologist meant west wind? .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A FAIRLY POTENT CLOSED LOW AT 500MB WILL BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. THE LOW WILL PULL DOWN FRIGID ARCTIC AIR FROM THE CANADIAN INTERIOR FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WEST AND TEENS IN THE EAST. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN MOST SPOTS EXCEPT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. A BRISK EAST WIND WILL MAKE TEMPERATURES FEEL MORE LIKE 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO FAHRENHEIT. TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE DOWNRIGHT FRIGID AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. Lol. Not surprising at all. The best part is that they had no disco about the storm. Considering what the models are showing it's probably worth discussing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 NWS Cleveland continues to show their incompetence with this decision here to only issue an advisory. Because of this many plow companies, counties, towns and ODOT did not fully staff. So bad at the stoplight in town the snow is probably 4-5" deep, you cannot get by on country roads unless you have a 4wd truck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I'll have to go outside to get a better idea on how much snow has fallen here (a few inches thus far) since around 1:00AM when it started snowing but it's not a stretch to think that portions of Lorain, Medina, Cuyahoga, Summit, Lake and Geauga Counties will hit the 24 hour warning criteria between around midnight last night and midnight tonight of 8"+. Given the very cold temperatures by this evening and wind starting to cause blowing and drifting issues I do not know why they are being so conservative about this. And evidently reading the post above it isn't much better in NW OH. Edit: 3.5" new here. Visibilities near 1 mile still common back to NW OH so with synoptic snow and then lake enhanced later we still have several hours to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't buy the 0.9" at CLE through 10 am one bit. Had 2.2" through 7am overnight, another 2" has since fallen. Seems like my snowfall report was modified by CLE. Apparently they just don't believe that much fell overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 I don't buy the 0.9" at CLE through 10 am one bit. Had 2.2" through 7am overnight, another 2" has since fallen. Seems like my snowfall report was modified by CLE. Apparently they just don't believe that much fell overnight. I think if we took CLE to see a psychologist and told them what CLE does on a daily basis they'd diagnose CLE with some sort of mental disorder. Not much of what that office does anymore is something sane humans would do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's really incredible that there isn't a warning out for this. Half mile visibilities or less, moderate snow, and brutal wind making for treacherous conditions. Just came inside from shoveling. Measured an average of 11" throughout the yard (granted there was about 2" of snow on the ground before this storm hit). But considering the settling and blowing and drifting, this storm is phenomenal. This is about as best of an advisory type snow as you can get! I'm trying to envision what it'd look like if the Sunday storm drops another 5-10"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 It's really incredible that there isn't a warning out for this. Half mile visibilities or less, moderate snow, and brutal wind making for treacherous conditions. Just came inside from shoveling. Measured an average of 11" throughout the yard (granted there was about 2" of snow on the ground before this storm hit). But considering the settling and blowing and drifting, this storm is phenomenal. This is about as best of an advisory type snow as you can get! I'm trying to envision what it'd look like if the Sunday storm drops another 5-10"! Yeah... easily warning criteria with the wind and snow. Snow has tapered off in Chagrin for the time being. Perhaps we'll see the "green blob" appear over the area as the winds come around more northerly. Lot's of potential with the storm on Sunday. According to the euro we'll be riding a razor's edge as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Ironically, this may verify as a blizzard, at least for the lakeshore. Burke Airport is awfully close to meeting official blizzard warning criteria: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It looked like it was quite heavy in the Cleveland metro at 1700z (12PM). I am seeing no local storm reports from the CLE office on my GRLevel3 screen. I'd like to know what the reports are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 It looked like it was quite heavy in the Cleveland metro at 1700z (12PM). I am seeing no local storm reports from the CLE office on my GRLevel3 screen. I'd like to know what the reports are. I had 5.0" fall yesterday. Since last night, I've had roughly 5" more. So about 10" total here and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nice enhancement from Lake County out towards Erie/Huron Counties. LPR and CLE are both at 1/2 mile in snow and blowing snow right now. Snow and wind are both unimpressive here at the time but as winds swing around to the north later that should change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Nice enhancement from Lake County out towards Erie/Huron Counties. LPR and CLE are both at 1/2 mile in snow and blowing snow right now. Snow and wind are both unimpressive here at the time but as winds swing around to the north later that should change. Snow is really picking up in Chagrin under the lighter returns. Should rip pretty good once the winds come around more northerly. Not sure how long it will last... CLE keeps hyping the dry air. If moisture from Lake Huron is involved it could be heavy this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Snow is really picking up in Chagrin under the lighter returns. Should rip pretty good once the winds come around more northerly. Not sure how long it will last... CLE keeps hyping the dry air. If moisture from Lake Huron is involved it could be heavy this evening.It was ripping pretty good with visibility just above a quarter mile in Bedford Heights a bit ago. Not as impressive closer to home but it's coming. Last night models didn't show significant drying until near midnight so we may have several hours of this and should add at least 2-4"...although the winds are starting to crank decently so it will be hard to measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone see the PNS from CLE this hour? Looks like CLE only picked up 1" of snow in the past 6 hours. I'm going to say that's impossible. But if you're an open airfield with winds at 40 mph, I'm sure the snowboard is swept clean. I'd love to see what their final total is. I'm sure it'll be ridiculously lowballed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Anyone see the PNS from CLE this hour? Looks like CLE only picked up 1" of snow in the past 6 hours. I'm going to say that's impossible. But if you're an open airfield with winds at 40 mph, I'm sure the snowboard is swept clean. I'd love to see what their final total is. I'm sure it'll be ridiculously lowballed. That's hilarious... visibility at Hopkins has been at .50 mile for 5 hours. I'm sure they will come in incredibly low. At some point someone will call BS. Or may they will just lower all snowfall reports so their's doesn't look out of place . Seems like the west side has been under the heaviest returns wil the NNE flow. Wonder how much additional snow fill fall tonight. Nice flake size now as enhancement kicks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 2, 2014 Author Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not to pile on CLE... but this afternoon's AFD is just bad. Kosarik has been around forever so it is surprising. Long term was just as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Not to pile on CLE... but this afternoon's AFD is just bad. Kosarik has been around forever so it is surprising. Long term was just as bad. Yeah I just scrolled through it. The near/short term written by Kosarik aren't horrid but a few lines kind of got me. The lake enhancement occurring now should continue really until the winds back to the north as there is synoptic snow all the way back into western OH. There is a decent Lake Huron band snaking into the DTX area right now and as I mentioned earlier lake effect conditions remain decent until late tonight. Winds over lower MI are starting to back to the N or even NNW so hopefully that band starts shifting east soon. I thought it was interesting that fluffy snow doesn't accumulate well anymore. The long term part of the disco was good in mentioning how serious the cold would be but completely ignored Sunday's snow. Kind of putting the cart before the hoarse if you ask me. There's no way CLE only got another inch today Probably around 2" more since I measured around 11:00AM this morning pushing me close to 6" additional since late last night...and close to 10" for the "storm total" since Tuesday night. Edit: CLE is down to 1/4 mile visibility right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 The 12Z ECMWF run now shows 850 hPa temperature of -31 C Tuesday morning for northeast Ohio. The medium range models are trending even colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 2, 2014 Share Posted January 2, 2014 Pics from a walk I took earlier through the winter storm earlier: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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