Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[NEOH]

I have a feeling tonight's run will probably tone down the QPF.

 

Looking at the text output, it's one long strung out duration event. In fact, most of today's non warned snows will probably end up being more intense than what this storm ends up providing. 

 

While the AFD out of CLE this afternoon is once again horrible, I think the 4-8" amounts being tossed around seem reasonable at this juncture. Plenty of time to adjust upward as time goes on, but I do think 4" is a worst case scenario for most of NE Ohio.

 

Regarding today, it's actually kind of cool to still live in a place where you can get an unforecasted 6" or 10" amount. It's funny how much time is spent following phantom storms and then sometimes you just wake up and boom, there's a decent lake effect event.

Great point... I couldn't imagine living outside of a les belt. Many surprise snowfalls throughout a given winter. Lot's of nail biting over mediocre snowfalls. Bad timing on the move out here... My old BY has been in the jackpot zone this year. Plenty of time to catch up though.

[NEOH]

It's snowing nicely out there this morning. Looks like 1.5 or so. I see cle bumped up snowfall totals for tomorrow's storm to 6-10. The euro backed down last night... No surprise I guess. Today's runs will be interesting.

[zero26800]

Yea more snow here as well. 1.5 sounds about right. Roads are messy. Again not much about the lake effect from CLE.

[Trent]

With temps so low and the snow being very fine, roads were pretty icy. It seemed like every freeway had a wreck on it.

This morning's snow brings the seasonal total in Mayfield Heights up to a respectable 41.5".

I still like our position for Thursday. Lake enhancement will be most responsible for our snow, so we can afford some wobble in the track, just as long as there are no major adjustments to the far north.

[zero26800]

With temps so low and the snow being very fine, roads were pretty icy. It seemed like every freeway had a wreck on it.

This morning's snow brings the seasonal total in Mayfield Heights up to a respectable 41.5".

I still like our position for Thursday. Lake enhancement will be most responsible for our snow, so we can afford some wobble in the track, just as long as there are no major adjustments to the far north.

 

We are in a good position and I hope it comes through.

I am also liking how the storm sunday-monday is shaping up. 

[NEOH]

Going to be a close call with LES today. I'm wondering if the winds don't shift a little more NW'erly than forecast. Heaviest snow would be focused on lake and ashtabula... but I wouldn't be surprised to see the band shift into northeastern cuyahoga county.

[Trent]

Going to be a close call with LES today. I'm wondering if the winds don't shift a little more NW'erly than forecast. Heaviest snow would be focused on lake and ashtabula... but I wouldn't be surprised to see the band shift into northeastern cuyahoga county.

Clipping northeastern Cuyahoga and the western lakeshore right now. We'll see how long this lasts, but could definitely warrant advisory type snows pretty shortly.

[OHweather]

Another decent LES event although this one isn't really impacting my house. There was about 0.7" here at 4:45AM when I got home and another light accumulation since then so around an inch here last night into this morning (on top of 4.2" yesterday). I'm sure parts of Geauga will come in with 4"+ today.

 

Long duration light to at times moderate snow event gets going tonight. It looks like 1-2" tonight, 1-3" Wednesday, 2-4" Wednesday night and 1-3" Thursday for a general 6-10" of snow not including lake enhancement. This will be a long duration high ratio snow so it should add up. Most models show over .4" of QPF for us and a 15:1 ratio turns that into 6"+ of snow.

 

Winds will be NNE going N on Thursday and then N or NNW Thursday night. Lake effect conditions become decent Thursday afternoon and looking at the 12z NAM good moisture and a decently high inversion remain in place through around 1:00AM Friday before subsidence and really dry air move in. This supports lake enhancement from Geauga west towards Sandusky on Thursday initially before becoming more confined to the more typical secondary Snowbelt of Cuyahoga, Medina and western Summit Thursday afternoon out towards Geauga before becoming more confined to the eastern half of Cuyahoga/Summit into Lake, Geauga and Portage Thursday night. This may add 1-3" additional in Lorain, Erie and Huron Counties...2-4" additional in Cuyahoga, Summit, Medina, Lake, Portage and Ashtabula Counties...and possibly 3-6" additional in Geauga County.

 

I think Geauga County may be the big winner and adding up my numbers gives them 9-16". For Cuyahoga a widespread 7-13" seems reasonable with the highest amounts being inland due to better lake enhancement. This event will be so long duration with a very high ratio snow so it may not be terribly high impact and given the duration from late tonight through Thursday night (nearly 48 hours) I honestly don't think a warning may technically be met. The only chance for a warning being met is if an intense Lake Huron connection can develop at some point Thursday or Thursday night.

 

Edit: The SREF plumes show a mean for CLE of 8" with a spread from 3.8"-15"

[zero26800]

Another decent LES event although this one isn't really impacting my house. There was about 0.7" here at 4:45AM when I got home and another light accumulation since then so around an inch here last night into this morning (on top of 4.2" yesterday). I'm sure parts of Geauga will come in with 4"+ today.

 

Long duration light to at times moderate snow event gets going tonight. It looks like 1-2" tonight, 1-3" Wednesday, 2-4" Wednesday night and 1-3" Thursday for a general 6-10" of snow not including lake enhancement. This will be a long duration high ratio snow so it should add up. Most models show over .4" of QPF for us and a 15:1 ratio turns that into 6"+ of snow.

 

Winds will be NNE going N on Thursday and then N or NNW Thursday night. Lake effect conditions become decent Thursday afternoon and looking at the 12z NAM good moisture and a decently high inversion remain in place through around 1:00AM Friday before subsidence and really dry air move in. This supports lake enhancement from Geauga west towards Sandusky on Thursday initially before becoming more confined to the more typical secondary Snowbelt of Cuyahoga, Medina and western Summit Thursday afternoon out towards Geauga before becoming more confined to the eastern half of Cuyahoga/Summit into Lake, Geauga and Portage Thursday night. This may add 1-3" additional in Lorain, Erie and Huron Counties...2-4" additional in Cuyahoga, Summit, Medina, Lake, Portage and Ashtabula Counties...and possibly 3-6" additional in Geauga County.

 

I think Geauga County may be the big winner and adding up my numbers gives them 9-16". For Cuyahoga a widespread 7-13" seems reasonable with the highest amounts being inland due to better lake enhancement. This event will be so long duration with a very high ratio snow so it may not be terribly high impact and given the duration from late tonight through Thursday night (nearly 48 hours) I honestly don't think a warning may technically be met. The only chance for a warning being met is if an intense Lake Huron connection can develop at some point Thursday or Thursday night.

 

Edit: The SREF plumes show a mean for CLE of 8" with a spread from 3.8"-15"

Considering the lack of calls on this for the area and the way the models have been rather disappointing when it comes to consistency. I appreciate your forecast. 

[NEOH]

Another decent LES event although this one isn't really impacting my house. There was about 0.7" here at 4:45AM when I got home and another light accumulation since then so around an inch here last night into this morning (on top of 4.2" yesterday). I'm sure parts of Geauga will come in with 4"+ today.

 

Long duration light to at times moderate snow event gets going tonight. It looks like 1-2" tonight, 1-3" Wednesday, 2-4" Wednesday night and 1-3" Thursday for a general 6-10" of snow not including lake enhancement. This will be a long duration high ratio snow so it should add up. Most models show over .4" of QPF for us and a 15:1 ratio turns that into 6"+ of snow.

 

Winds will be NNE going N on Thursday and then N or NNW Thursday night. Lake effect conditions become decent Thursday afternoon and looking at the 12z NAM good moisture and a decently high inversion remain in place through around 1:00AM Friday before subsidence and really dry air move in. This supports lake enhancement from Geauga west towards Sandusky on Thursday initially before becoming more confined to the more typical secondary Snowbelt of Cuyahoga, Medina and western Summit Thursday afternoon out towards Geauga before becoming more confined to the eastern half of Cuyahoga/Summit into Lake, Geauga and Portage Thursday night. This may add 1-3" additional in Lorain, Erie and Huron Counties...2-4" additional in Cuyahoga, Summit, Medina, Lake, Portage and Ashtabula Counties...and possibly 3-6" additional in Geauga County.

 

I think Geauga County may be the big winner and adding up my numbers gives them 9-16". For Cuyahoga a widespread 7-13" seems reasonable with the highest amounts being inland due to better lake enhancement. This event will be so long duration with a very high ratio snow so it may not be terribly high impact and given the duration from late tonight through Thursday night (nearly 48 hours) I honestly don't think a warning may technically be met. The only chance for a warning being met is if an intense Lake Huron connection can develop at some point Thursday or Thursday night.

 

Edit: The SREF plumes show a mean for CLE of 8" with a spread from 3.8"-15"

 

Great forecast. Thanks for throwing a bone to us folks in Geauga county. Will be an interesting storm to follow. My only concern is the main band of precip shifting north (per the 12z nam), and the gfs to some degree. Hopefully this won't be a walleye jackpot. Seems like lake enhacement will be the key to the higher totals.

[IWXwx]

Great forecast. Thanks for throwing a bone to us folks in Geauga county. Will be an interesting storm to follow. My only concern is the main band of precip shifting north (per the 12z nam), and the gfs to some degree.

 

Great forecast. Thanks for throwing a bone to us folks in Geauga county. Will be an interesting storm to follow. My only concern is the main band of precip shifting north (per the 12z nam), and the gfs to some degree. Hopefully this won't be a walleye jackpot. Seems like lake enhacement will be the key to the higher totals.

 

 

Good luck to you guys in Northern Ohio.

[NEOH]

 

Great forecast. Thanks for throwing a bone to us folks in Geauga county. Will be an interesting storm to follow. My only concern is the main band of precip shifting north (per the 12z nam), and the gfs to some degree.

 

Great forecast. Thanks for throwing a bone to us folks in Geauga county. Will be an interesting storm to follow. My only concern is the main band of precip shifting north (per the 12z nam), and the gfs to some degree. Hopefully this won't be a walleye jackpot. Seems like lake enhacement will be the key to the higher totals.

 

 

Good luck to you guys in Northern Ohio.

 

 

Good luck to you as well. Wish that what was more a joke than reality... it's going to be a tight gradient N to S in northern ohio. Hopefully we'll find ourselves on the good side.

[NEOH]

Wow... just noticed the snow has started already. Seems like an early start. Nice look to the radar to the west.

[Trent]

Was looking at the 18z NAM cobb output. If you want   , then look here: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_namm/nam_kcle.dat

 

Yes, that's 4.1" of snow through late tomorrow morning on just 0.20" liquid, then a break in the action until the low goes by Thursday with 7.2" falling on 0.44" liquid.

 

We'll see if CLE can finally break their 6" storm drought. However, with the snow coming in two separate events, I'll say CLE doesn't make it.

[OHweather]

Great forecast. Thanks for throwing a bone to us folks in Geauga county. Will be an interesting storm to follow. My only concern is the main band of precip shifting north (per the 12z nam), and the gfs to some degree. Hopefully this won't be a walleye jackpot. Seems like lake enhacement will be the key to the higher totals.

Thanks. The 18z NAM looks like it went just south a tad and the GFS held. The SREF mean increased to 9" for CLE with a range of 2.7-15.0". The Euro also has a few tenths of liquid across the northern two rows of counties across NE Ohio. I think we're still ok although the cut off will be close to me. It is already snowing here and the last few storms saw a last second shift south...let's see if it happens when a south shift helps us!

 

For Geauga County the key I think is getting NNW winds by Thursday evening to possibly direct a Huron enhanced band into the area.

[Chinook]

The storm has started for northern Ohio. There is just a bit of snow in Toledo and metro Cleveland.

[NEOH]

Thanks. The 18z NAM looks like it went just south a tad and the GFS held. The SREF mean increased to 9" for CLE with a range of 2.7-15.0". The Euro also has a few tenths of liquid across the northern two rows of counties across NE Ohio. I think we're still ok although the cut off will be close to me. It is already snowing here and the last few storms saw a last second shift south...let's see if it happens when a south shift helps us!

 

For Geauga County the key I think is getting NNW winds by Thursday evening to possibly direct a Huron enhanced band into the area.

6-10 seems like a safe call right now. Lake enhancement is the wild card... Any areas that can lock in underneath a band connected to Lake Huron will do better. i'm going to stop sweating the cutoff assuming it will stay south... But it will be close.

Have a safe and fun night all. With a young one at home I'll be asleep shortly.

[Trent]

The storm has started for northern Ohio. There is just a bit of snow in Toledo and metro Cleveland.

Radar is rocking right now! Hopefully it keeps up like this through morning.

[OHweather]

Happy New Year's everyone! This snow is accumulating very well despite visibility remaining generally above a mile. There was just about 2" in Solon at 12:45 when I left and about 1.5" now here in Reminderville. The NAM's 4" for this first little wave may not be too far off at this rate and CLE hoisted advisories for tonight through Wednesday afternoon. 0z models appeared to tick south a bit but I've just glanced at the NAM/GFS.

[NEOH]

Happy New Year all. Woke up to 3.5"... great start to the storm. As Trent mentioned, the NAM showed this yesterday... I'm going to ride it the rest of the way.

[Trent]

Yeah, I was shocked when I got up. 3.9" of new snow. That's actually about 40% more than the NAM had for us by 7 am.

[NEOH]

Yeah, I was shocked when I got up. 3.9" of new snow. That's actually about 40% more than the NAM had for us by 7 am.

 

Nice start to say the least... could have an overperformer for a change. Snow is starting to pick up again. Going to a fun couple of days.

[Trent]

I will probably beat out my 2011/2012 seasonal snowfall by this afternoon. 

 

And for the ultimate in   you can take a look at the NMM, that shows a lollipop of 1" near CLE. And considering the ratios have been performing as predicted, you can do the math on how much would fall. 

[zero26800]

Little flakes down here in kent but good accumulation over night like everyone else has pointed out. South shift taking place, and CLE talking up the storm for the beginning of next week. I'm ready to enjoy the show.

EVEN THOUGH WE DO SEE A BIT OF A RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES UP NEAR

THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY...AND IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY...THE BOTTOM

IS EXPECTED TO DROP OUT ON MONDAY. AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS INTO THE

REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY BECOME

REALLY NASTY. THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY COULD HAVE

THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND DANGEROUSLY COLD

WIND CHILLS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. ADDED TO THAT WILL BE GUSTY

WINDS WITH THE STORM SYSTEM PRODUCING BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

THEN...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT...WE ARE NOT

DONE YET. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW WILL TRANSITION INTO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW

EVENT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH LAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S

AND LAKE WIDE OPEN FOR SOME INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. 850 MB

TO LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL REACH EXTREME BY MONDAY

AND TUESDAY. THE ONLY PROBLEM IS THE SHEAR THAT DEVELOPS. IF THE

FLOW BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED THEN WE WILL

INDEED SEE SOME HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. PLUS...WITH WINDS EXPECTED

TO INCREASE WITH THE LOW AND THEN THE HIGH BUILDING IN...ANY SNOW ON

THE GROUND OR FALLING WILL TURN INTO A NASTY MESS.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS...STAY TUNED FOR WHAT COULD BE A BIG STORM FOR

THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Shsg Falls]

It doesn't seem like we've had a lot of heavy lake effect snow this season.  Either the wind direction has been off or the boundary layer has become dry.  Odd since we've had long stretches of below normal temperatures.

 

The ECMWF drops the 850 hPa temperature down to about -24°C next week.  If it becomes clear as the ridge builds could we have some record lows?

[NEOH]

Off and on light snow... probably under a 1/2 inch since this morning. Everything still on schedule for round 2? SREF looked good.

[Trent]

Off and on light snow... probably under a 1/2 inch since this morning. Everything still on schedule for round 2? SREF looked good.

 

Looks like the Euro spit out about 0.45" additional for CLE for round 2 (with 0.6" as you head farther NE in Ohio). So that's still on track for a good 5-10" more overnight and into tomorrow.

[NEOH]

Looks like the Euro spit out about 0.45" additional for CLE for round 2 (with 0.6" as you head farther NE in Ohio). So that's still on track for a good 5-10" more overnight and into tomorrow.

 

Nice... good to hear. Going to be tough traveling later tonight and tomorrow with the wind and snow.

[dta1984]

Happy new year all. Almost 4" here, been light snowing with tiny flakes but seems to have stopped. Should be a good event tonight for us. Hopefully some decent les sets up tomorrow.

Anyone peeked at the Sunday/Mon system? Latest lr disco from cle mentions good potential with a good lake event afterwards. After that I'm sure ice will form quite quickly with the cold temps.

[OHweather]

3.7" here thus far. Nice start, certainly think a general 6-10" across the northern one to two rows of counties with possibly a foot plus where lake enhancement occurs is still on track. Snow builds back in tonight and I'd say probably another 2-3" by morning. Snow may be moderate for a few hours tomorrow morning and with high ratios and lake enhancement kicking in by evening I can see a general 3-5" for all of us during the day tomorrow with an additional 1-4" tomorrow night as lake effect kicks in on a N and eventually NNW flow. So an additional 6-12" may not be totally unreasonable and the NAM may score a coup. CLE's initial forecast of 10-14" on their storm total graphic may end up correct for the lakeshore counties...and looking now CLE has upped amounts back up to 10-14" for the lakeshore counties (including snow that has already fallen).

 

Looking at Sunday into Monday there is small potential for all three streams to get involved but that's the only reason CLE should be using the wording posted above so far out. If this phases and bombs we probably see rain. More likely I think at this point due to the broad nature of the trough digging into the central US this weekend is a weaker and less phased area of low pressure that keeps us all snow Sunday and Sunday night but doesn't produce epic amounts. I think a moderate end storm (like 4-8") is on the table for Sunday-Sunday night but if this turns into something bigger it goes too far west and we stay rain. I think at the end of the day the Euro trends a bit less phased with this but we'll see. A lack of -NAO blocking also kind of argues against such a sharp negatively tilted trough unless we get somehow get a triple phase.

 

The lake effect potential is there next week but I don't think it's great. It is going to be very cold the next couple of days with lows in the single digits tomorrow night with not a lot of wind to keep the lake churned up. Ice will expand during this timeframe and with the temperatures progged next week I think we'll see the lake rapidly ice up. If we get a storm to really bomb like the Euro shows we may get a period of NW winds and lake enhancement before we rapidly ice up. Otherwise models suggest winds turning mainly W on Monday. The GFS shows a more NW flow towards Wednesday but by that point I'm not sure how much water we'll have to work with. We've been able to get away with a W or WNW flow the last 3 lake effect events and get decent amounts into parts of Cuyahoga and Geauga but there will be more ice in the western basin (and probably central basin too) after the next couple of days and I think by late next week either the entire lake will be frozen or just a bit of water in the eastern basin will be left open.

 

The potential for -10 to -20 degree temperature seems to be there around next Tuesday. The GFS, Euro and Canadian have been showing the potential for a few days and haven't really backed off yet. With the potential for snow cover, possibly deep across most of the state and points NW all the way into Canada, the likelihood of W or possibly even WSW winds which would minimize any lake influence and insanely cold 850mb temps continuously being progged I think the potential is there. The models are showing air temps below -10F next Tuesday morning and keep the winds up, so the potential may be there for insanely cold wind chills Tuesday morning.