Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[OHweather]

Merry Christmas everyone! We still have around an inch here so we'll call it a white one.

Enjoy the white Christmas everyone! Even though yesterday's extreme high ratio fluff has settled considerably.

I actually reported my snow total to the NWS twice yesterday. Once during the middle of the event to tell what kind of rates were falling and then a final tally. They were fully aware of the intense snow band and the kind of rates/snows it was producing over a narrow area.

The fact that they purposely left it out of the PNS is quite shocking, actually. Are they an organization that purposefully excludes snow reports that do not jive with the forecasts they produce? On the flip side, if they had warnings out, they are practically begging for reports to confirm that.

The east/west convergence band through Cleveland is just some mysterious weather phenomena that CLE doesn't think exists. If you look at wundergrounds radar loop from yesterday the 24th (lower right corner) http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=CLE&type=N0R&MR=1 I'm situated at about the lower middle of the "V" in the Cleveland label. Couldn't get luckier than that for this event.

I figured you were a snow spotter and knew you measured yesterday based on your posts here which is why I was surprised when nothing showed up in the ballpark of 4.7" on the near west side. Now I know why. CLE isn't the best at forecasting these events but it really annoys me much more now knowing that they pick and choose PNS reports and dig deeper for reports that verify a warning if needed. If they had an advisory out your report probably would've been all over their web page

Edit: It may be an interesting exercise to see what they say if you email them asking why your reported snow wasn't in any PNS.

[Trent]

Coming in to work this morning in Mayfield Heights, it's quite apparent that about 4" fell here on Christmas Eve too.

[zero26800]

Anyone have any input on the system that comes north sunday-monday. GFS wanting to give us wet snow... other models seems to keep it tied to the shorline....

[NEOH]

Coming in to work this morning in Mayfield Heights, it's quite apparent that about 4" fell here on Christmas Eve too.

 

Some of that fell this morning... but yeah, that area did well on Christmas eve. There were a few intense bursts of snow this morning in that area. I was driving down Cedar in a whiteout early this am.

[NEOH]

Just how far north will the Sunday/Monday system get? Wish the Euro was on board... GFS seems the most bullish but temps would be an issue. LES behind the system was looking promising but the window keeps getting shorter with each model run. Wind direction is perfect but short duration would be the limiting factor. Nice to have some snow to track after the brief mild spell.

[dta1984]

What a nice day! Hopefully this mini warm up helps lake temps and any ice that is still there.

[NEOH]

Nice shot of Lake Erie today... lots of open water to work with. We just need a favorable flow for a change. Models show a decent 12 hour window in the Monday time frame. We need to cash in soon before the western basin is a skating rink.

 

 

[OHweather]

The models all show inversions lowering pretty quickly Sunday night with moisture getting stripped away as well. There will be a window for lake effect and I think some places east of Cleveland see 1-3" Sunday night into Monday morning.

 

Thursday into Friday looks extremely interesting...the models have backed off a bit on getting a polar vortex extremely far south which now gives room for what has consistently been shown as a potent clipper to possibly amplify across the Midwest and then Ohio Valley before transferring to the east coast. The 0z models are all in pretty good agreement in showing a few inches of synoptic snow across Northern Ohio and most relevant models then keep us in a very cold and relatively moist cyclonic flow into Friday as the low then deepens off the east coast. The pattern shown on the 0z Euro ensembles for this time period consists of a west coast ridge...a modest -NAO...a -EPO ridge that displaces the PV and directs a cross polar flow towards the Midwest/Great Lakes...and the aforementioned polar vortex sitting over Newfoundland acting like a 50/50 low. This seems fairly conducive for a potent, high amplitude clipper dropping into the Midwest with potential for it to amplify along the east coast. This is something to watch.

 

The lake is wide enough open right now but by later this week I'd expect the lake to be completely frozen west of the islands with expanding shore ice points east. When systems bomb off of the upper Mid-Atlantic or New England coast we tend to have a decent northerly component to the winds which would be needed to tap the open waters over the central basin later this week. We'll see how it plays out but model trends have been snowier over the last couple of days for Thursday with LES possibly lingering into Friday. If the system doesn't bomb there would be some lake effect still I'd imagine but it may not be significant. Still lots to work out.

[Trent]

Interesting potentials definitely setting up for the rest of the week!

 

I was just thinking of how there haven't been many of the north flow events that follow an east coast bomb around here. These lake effect/enhancement snows are the reason why the west side/secondary snow belt averages 60-80"+ per year. The secondary snow belt has been void of any major snow events the past few seasons. Even this season the higher terrain of Medina County has been grazed by synoptic snows just to their south and lake effect that's primarily been to their north and east.

 

With this month about to wrap up, the weather here in Cleveland has been a stark contrast to the rest of the Midwest. Temperatures at CLE as of yesterday are running normal (-0.2), with another above average day today and a colder 30th and 31st, temps should finish roughly a degree or less below the new 30 year norms, or normal to slightly above the long term averages. Still an outside chance for some fluff to fall through year end, but officially, snowfall will likely be below normal, which I wouldn't be surprised if it's the only station in the midwest to come in below normal for snow for the month (thanks to the lack of north flow events). 

[NEOH]

Potentially snowy week shaping up. Tight gradient with the snowfall however. Excellent long term disco from CLE

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN SOME PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PRECIPITATION COULD BE MIXED DURING A PORTION OF THIS EVENTON THURSDAY BUT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW. ON FRIDAY THE SNOW SHOULD BE MORE CONFINED TO A PORTION OF NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA SNOW BELT AREAS. LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

 

[Trent]

That discussion was brutal.

Looks like the Lake Effect last night over performed. Easily 3" when I drove in to Mayfield Heights this morning. Appears that even CLE might have squeezed out over an inch. They might actually hit normal for the month now.

Euro is pretty sweet for northeast Ohio on Thursday. Easily a widespread foot+ for all areas. If there's going to be a model that bullseyes us 3 days out, might as well be the euro.

[carumba]

That discussion was brutal.

Looks like the Lake Effect last night over performed. Easily 3" when I drove in to Mayfield Heights this morning. Appears that even CLE might have squeezed out over an inch. They might actually hit normal for the month now.

Euro is pretty sweet for northeast Ohio on Thursday. Easily a widespread foot+ for all areas. If there's going to be a model that bullseyes us 3 days out, might as well be the euro.

 

Yep, I'd say an easy 3" of fluffy stuff out here in Chagrin Falls. It's still snowing lightly.

[Trent]

Latest METAR from CLE says snow increasing 1 inch last hour, 2 inches on ground. Very nice appetizer to hopefully a big event on Thursday.

[NEOH]

That discussion was brutal.

Looks like the Lake Effect last night over performed. Easily 3" when I drove in to Mayfield Heights this morning. Appears that even CLE might have squeezed out over an inch. They might actually hit normal for the month now.

Euro is pretty sweet for northeast Ohio on Thursday. Easily a widespread foot+ for all areas. If there's going to be a model that bullseyes us 3 days out, might as well be the euro.

 

Easily 3" here as well. Pure fluff. Still snowing lightly.

 

Euro is a perfect track for us later this week... then another a few days later. Hopefully it holds... could be a fun week.

[zero26800]

Snowing at a good rate here in Garfield heights. Moderate to heavy. Hasn't stopped.

[carumba]

Snowing at a good rate here in Garfield heights. Moderate to heavy. Hasn't stopped.

 

Wow, still coming down moderate to heavy here in Beachwood at the office.

[Trent]

Heaviest snow of the day in Mayfield Heights.

Just read the AFD from CLE this morning. Just plain bad. Why was the advisory cancelled during the middle of the snow? Eastern Cuyahoga will wind up with 3-5" of snow today.

[zero26800]

Didnt understand why they did not extend it. 

Snow has died for now but looks like it will be making a comback.

 

Maybe...

Eh...

[Trent]

I just measured 2.5" additional on my car since I parked this morning. So that's about 5" in Mayfield Heights total. It's pure fluff so it will settle quickly.

The volume of busted forecasts here are staggering.

[OHweather]

It's funny, they issued the advisory last evening for freezing rain but it just happened to cover the first portion of this somewhat unexpected snow event. And, the advisory was warranted for the freezing rain, I hit about a 2 mile stretch of 480 last night after midnight that was just pure ice with several cars either off the side of the highway or into the concrete median in that stretch. It's been snowing decently off and on here all morning and I have somewhere between 3 and 4" and will measure later...CLE had the advisory out but then decided to let it expire while still snowing...lol. The event is definitely on the downswing now.

 

We'll get another little system to pass tonight into tomorrow morning with a WNW flow behind it so maybe another brief shot at LES...and then another shot at light overrunning snow Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

 

The 12z GFS/GGEM continue to be more progressive than the Euro with the system and only show modest snow amounts in Ohio (maybe a 2-4" of fluff type event) while the NAM is a bit to our north with the best snow. The 0z Euro had strong ensemble agreement and it would be nice to see it hold in a little bit with a very snowy solution for Thursday.

[OHweather]

I just measured 2.5" additional on my car since I parked this morning. So that's about 5" in Mayfield Heights total. It's pure fluff so it will settle quickly.

The volume of busted forecasts here are staggering.

I just don't get why they let the advisory expire at 8:00AM. My thinking was up to 3" of LES and that was low (but better than the NWS thinking of 1" or less) but when I woke up, saw it snowing nicely with a good inch or so down, and then glanced at the radar, it wasn't hard detective work to figure out that this one would overachieve a bit. No one will forecast every lake effect event perfectly with no busts but they are paid to sit there and make forecasts, it would be nice to see a bit more awareness when one of these events starts overachieving.

[zero26800]

I just don't get why they let the advisory expire at 8:00AM. My thinking was up to 3" of LES and that was low (but better than the NWS thinking of 1" or less) but when I woke up, saw it snowing nicely with a good inch or so down, and then glanced at the radar, it wasn't hard detective work to figure out that this one would overachieve a bit. No one will forecast every lake effect event perfectly with no busts but they are paid to sit there and make forecasts, it would be nice to see a bit more awareness when one of these events starts overachieving.

 

I agree.  I expected to see a change in the discussion through the morning, but nothing ever changed... It's like they couldn't have accidentally glanced outside and see that they might need to double check.

[OHweather]

Here is the CLE Euro text data through Friday afternoon:
 

               2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 12Z 30-DEC  -6.0   -17.2    1023      55       3    0.00     539     521    MON 18Z 30-DEC  -5.8   -16.1    1025      51       3    0.00     542     523    TUE 00Z 31-DEC  -6.0   -15.8    1024      54       6    0.00     540     521    TUE 06Z 31-DEC  -4.3   -14.3    1021      54     100    0.00     534     517    TUE 12Z 31-DEC  -6.0   -15.9    1021      60     100    0.03     530     514    TUE 18Z 31-DEC  -5.1   -17.7    1025      48       5    0.01     537     518    WED 00Z 01-JAN  -5.4   -12.3    1027      51      95    0.00     543     522    WED 06Z 01-JAN  -6.2   -12.1    1029      61      98    0.01     545     523    WED 12Z 01-JAN  -6.7   -11.3    1030      71      96    0.06     547     524    WED 18Z 01-JAN  -5.2   -10.5    1029      70      77    0.05     548     526    THU 00Z 02-JAN  -6.1    -9.7    1029      76      98    0.01     549     527    THU 06Z 02-JAN  -5.3    -8.5    1025      79      97    0.02     548     529    THU 12Z 02-JAN  -5.0    -8.1    1023      82      96    0.06     546     529    THU 18Z 02-JAN  -4.6    -7.4    1018      83      99    0.10     543     529    FRI 00Z 03-JAN  -5.4    -9.1    1015      83      99    0.18     539     528    FRI 06Z 03-JAN  -7.8   -12.5    1015      81      93    0.13     534     522    FRI 12Z 03-JAN -10.6   -15.6    1021      80      23    0.03     533     517    FRI 18Z 03-JAN  -9.4   -16.6    1025      62       2    0.01     541     522 

[NEOH]

 

Here is the CLE Euro text data through Friday afternoon:

 

               2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK MON 12Z 30-DEC  -6.0   -17.2    1023      55       3    0.00     539     521    MON 18Z 30-DEC  -5.8   -16.1    1025      51       3    0.00     542     523    TUE 00Z 31-DEC  -6.0   -15.8    1024      54       6    0.00     540     521    TUE 06Z 31-DEC  -4.3   -14.3    1021      54     100    0.00     534     517    TUE 12Z 31-DEC  -6.0   -15.9    1021      60     100    0.03     530     514    TUE 18Z 31-DEC  -5.1   -17.7    1025      48       5    0.01     537     518    WED 00Z 01-JAN  -5.4   -12.3    1027      51      95    0.00     543     522    WED 06Z 01-JAN  -6.2   -12.1    1029      61      98    0.01     545     523    WED 12Z 01-JAN  -6.7   -11.3    1030      71      96    0.06     547     524    WED 18Z 01-JAN  -5.2   -10.5    1029      70      77    0.05     548     526    THU 00Z 02-JAN  -6.1    -9.7    1029      76      98    0.01     549     527    THU 06Z 02-JAN  -5.3    -8.5    1025      79      97    0.02     548     529    THU 12Z 02-JAN  -5.0    -8.1    1023      82      96    0.06     546     529    THU 18Z 02-JAN  -4.6    -7.4    1018      83      99    0.10     543     529    FRI 00Z 03-JAN  -5.4    -9.1    1015      83      99    0.18     539     528    FRI 06Z 03-JAN  -7.8   -12.5    1015      81      93    0.13     534     522    FRI 12Z 03-JAN -10.6   -15.6    1021      80      23    0.03     533     517    FRI 18Z 03-JAN  -9.4   -16.6    1025      62       2    0.01     541     522 

 

Thanks for the info. Drier than the last nights run I assume with the shift south and east. I still think we are in a good spot for this storm.... provided there are no significant shifts.  

[OHweather]

Thanks for the info. Drier than the last nights run I assume with the shift south and east. I still think we are in a good spot for this storm.... provided there are no significant shifts.  

I think we'll be ok. It still spits out 0.69" of liquid through Friday afternoon and is a global model so won't really resolve lake effect well. Ratios could well be 20:1 or higher but staying "safer" and just plugging in a 15:1 ratio that's another 10" or so of snow over the next few days on the Euro...not including the 3-6" of snow we saw today (CLE put out a storm report for 6" in Shaker Heights and I have an unofficial report of 6" from near Thompson).

[NEOH]

I think we'll be ok. It still spits out 0.69" of liquid through Friday afternoon and is a global model so won't really resolve lake effect well. Ratios could well be 20:1 or higher but staying "safer" and just plugging in a 15:1 ratio that's another 10" or so of snow over the next few days on the Euro...not including the 3-6" of snow we saw today (CLE put out a storm report for 6" in Shaker Heights and I have an unofficial report of 6" from near Thompson).

 

Wow... didn't see the 6" report in Shaker Heights. Looks like 3.8" will be my total. The fluff is already settling. Nice to put down  snow cover prior to the main event.

 

Hopefully lake enhancement will boost precip totals for the lakeshore counties.

[OHweather]

Wow... didn't see the 6" report in Shaker Heights. Looks like 3.8" will be my total. The fluff is already settling. Nice to put down  snow cover prior to the main event.

 

Hopefully lake enhancement will boost precip totals for the lakeshore counties.

They put it out as an LSR a little after noon with the total, they haven't put out a PNS since earlier this morning.

 

Yeah, we may need to hope for LES to get decently heavy totals for the main event. The GFS actually struggles to get winds around to the N...it holds them at NNE until Friday afternoon which would actually favor places from Sandusky to Lorain for the heaviest snow. The Euro shows a stronger east coast low and gets the winds around to the NNW. So really the Euro is just better all the way around for the event, but we'll see what verifies.

[zero26800]

Up here in Garfield heights leaving work with a good 4-5" on the car.

[Trent]

Finished with 6" in Mayfield Heights. It was still spitting snow when I left work.

[Trent]

They put it out as an LSR a little after noon with the total, they haven't put out a PNS since earlier this morning.

 

Yeah, we may need to hope for LES to get decently heavy totals for the main event. The GFS actually struggles to get winds around to the N...it holds them at NNE until Friday afternoon which would actually favor places from Sandusky to Lorain for the heaviest snow. The Euro shows a stronger east coast low and gets the winds around to the NNW. So really the Euro is just better all the way around for the event, but we'll see what verifies.

 

I have a feeling tonight's run will probably tone down the QPF.

 

Looking at the text output, it's one long strung out duration event. In fact, most of today's non warned snows will probably end up being more intense than what this storm ends up providing. 

 

While the AFD out of CLE this afternoon is once again horrible, I think the 4-8" amounts being tossed around seem reasonable at this juncture. Plenty of time to adjust upward as time goes on, but I do think 4" is a worst case scenario for most of NE Ohio.

 

Regarding today, it's actually kind of cool to still live in a place where you can get an unforecasted 6" or 10" amount. It's funny how much time is spent following phantom storms and then sometimes you just wake up and boom, there's a decent lake effect event.