Trent Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 4.6" as of 7 pm. Briefly switched to rain just after 7, currently rain/snow mix. That warm air surging north to Lake Erie never fails. There are some decent returns to the west that should rotate through, it remains to be seen what form that will fall as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 7.8" of snow here 25 miles west of Port Clinton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 1.6" this morning at 10:00AM + 3.2" new in the spot I cleared is at least 4.8". It's a mix of rain/sleet with a few wet flakes right now in Reminderville. My dad said it rained here starting at around 6:00PM and I measured right around 8:00PM so in all likelihood I saw at least 5.0" before the rain compacted things...but I don't want to just guess how much there was so I'll stick with 4.8". I'm not sure I'll see a ton of LES here tomorrow, but I'll be up in Cuyahoga County until mid-evening and there may be some decent LES there and definitely in Lake, Geauga/Ashtabula...CLE expects to issue advisories with amounts approaching warning criteria in those counties from the LES and I don't disagree, although I do think they may need an advisory for Cuyahoga County with a burst of snow with the trough tomorrow evening and then WNW winds lingering tomorrow night favoring a band into Cuyahoga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 15, 2013 Author Share Posted December 15, 2013 Nice dense snowpack out there. I was really surprised that we warmed anough for a mix last night. It didn't last long though. Looking at bufkit data, it doesn't appear that the winds will come around any more than 270 -- due west. Hopefully they turn a little more NW'erly. Tough to get a favorable fetch sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 Measured another 2" on the driveway this morning. Brings the total to approx 6.5". Pretty good storm. Hopefully we can get a little les and I think there is a clipper for Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 The wind direction seems to favor the 322 corridor and I'm not expecting much at my house...I work right off of 271 and get off at 10PM so I could always take a drive if a band forms before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nice band over the lake. Thundersnow reported in W NY... they have had a tremendous amount of snow this past week. Hopefully the winds can come around and bring the band onshore further south. Lake and Ashtabula counties should do pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Nice band over the lake. Thundersnow reported in W NY... they have had a tremendous amount of snow this past week. Hopefully the winds can come around and bring the band onshore further south. Lake and Ashtabula counties should do pretty well. Yeah its been an incredible winter here so far. Over 50 inches on the year by 12/15. Winter has not even started yet... Hopefully it keeps up! I'll post a video of the event today with the thundersnow tomorrow after I do some editing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 I've also been tracking the season to date snowfall here in Mayfield Heights, which is now up to 27". Not too shabby. I'm wondering if the frozen western basin hindered any development of LES last night? How much longer til CLE gets a 6"+ storm? If you look at the storm history for Cleveland for the past 50 years, nothing even comes close to the significant snow storm drought that's ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 Who thinks this weeks storm is going to be worth following or is it almost guaranteed to end up a horribly cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 16, 2013 Author Share Posted December 16, 2013 I've also been tracking the season to date snowfall here in Mayfield Heights, which is now up to 27". Not too shabby. I'm wondering if the frozen western basin hindered any development of LES last night? How much longer til CLE gets a 6"+ storm? If you look at the storm history for Cleveland for the past 50 years, nothing even comes close to the significant snow storm drought that's ongoing. We've had a great start to winter... despite CLE lacking a 6" + storm. Not sure what happened with the LES last night. It's a shame we haven't been able to get a decent fetch when good parameters were in place. It's all timing with LES. Looking at the visible satellite... the western basin is pretty much iced over, but I'm sure the ice is thin and slushy so not sure how much of an effect the ice had. Looks like we will have a brief opportunity for LES behind the clipper on a 280 flow which is perfect for a maximum fetch. But the time frame is short and winds will shift pretty quickly. Ugly pattern shaping up for the end of the week. If anything, maybe the ice will melt and open things up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 We've had a great start to winter... despite CLE lacking a 6" + storm. Not sure what happened with the LES last night. It's a shame we haven't been able to get a decent fetch when good parameters were in place. It's all timing with LES. Looking at the visible satellite... the western basin is pretty much iced over, but I'm sure the ice is thin and slushy so not sure how much of an effect the ice had. Looks like we will have a brief opportunity for LES behind the clipper on a 280 flow which is perfect for a maximum fetch. But the time frame is short and winds will shift pretty quickly. Ugly pattern shaping up for the end of the week. If anything, maybe the ice will melt and open things up again. Looks like that clipper is going to bring us something though around 4 inches for Kent...for now...until that doesn't happen. I know I am going to be disappointed for this weekends event. Way too much up in the air... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted December 16, 2013 Share Posted December 16, 2013 What a difference a year makes. http://www.cleveland.com/datacentral/index.ssf/2013/12/december_low_temperatures_runn.html#incart_river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 Only managed about 2 inches here in Kent from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 A nice 1-2" coating overnight. Fairly good agreement in quite a wash out for the weekend. 1-2" of rain looks likely with temps above 40 at night should easily wipe out the snow (and ensure another 40"+ year of rain) Long term still looks cold, we might be relying on synoptic snow for most of our snow this winter. If the snow is going to melt this weekend, I wouldn't mind a week in the 50s to break down the ice that's already formed in the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 I think 1-2 inches of rain will do some good lake ice melting on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Picked just under 2" last night. Maybe another inch or two later today/tonight. I'm not optimistic for much LES. I'm with Trent. If the snow is going to melt we might as well blaze and melt the ice. We've had a pretty good run of cold and snow, so the warm up was inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Bufkit output doesn't show winds coming around to more than 260... WSW wind winter so far. Strange how this seems to happen after days of models showing WNW winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 19, 2013 Author Share Posted December 19, 2013 Get the boats ready... soaker on the way this weekend. White Christmas looks unlikely unless we can get some LES behind the storm. Probably won't be much ice after a few days of warmth and rain... unless it's 34 and rainy in Western OH and 60 around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 A lot of rain on frozen ground. It will be interesting but sad because there was so much potential for us to get a real winter storm if there had been stronger cold air masses coming from Canada like there have been ALL December until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Just nudged above freezing here. Should be at least 80 hours of above freezing temperatures, with dewpoints on the rise and heavy rainfall. White Christmas this year will consist of mall parking lot piles. Hopefully the western basin lake ice makes a big decline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted December 19, 2013 Share Posted December 19, 2013 Just nudged above freezing here. Should be at least 80 hours of above freezing temperatures, with dewpoints on the rise and heavy rainfall. White Christmas this year will consist of mall parking lot piles. Hopefully the western basin lake ice makes a big decline. I was out near Port Clinton today and there was no ice east of the island area. The only significant ice appeared west of Put-in-Bay and Pelee, the lake should really be opened up for the next arctic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted December 20, 2013 Share Posted December 20, 2013 I was out near Port Clinton today and there was no ice east of the island area. The only significant ice appeared west of Put-in-Bay and Pelee, the lake should really be opened up for the next arctic event. Good. I'm ready to get this rain event past us and move on with winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 20, 2013 Author Share Posted December 20, 2013 I was out near Port Clinton today and there was no ice east of the island area. The only significant ice appeared west of Put-in-Bay and Pelee, the lake should really be opened up for the next arctic event. Thanks for the update. Good to hear. Did you fly over? Hopefully we can get a favorable setup while there is open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 Does anyone know how to change the thread name? Just realized it was for spring/summer. Feel free to start a winter 2013/2014 thread for northern ohio. Time to close the blinds until Monday. Majority of the snow has melted at this point. It's going to be really messy when the ground thaws. Gfs and euro shows how short window for les next Monday night/Tuesday. winds looks to be 290 which is great for most of the area. Let's hope we can cash in while a decent flow is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 21, 2013 Share Posted December 21, 2013 Does anyone know how to change the thread name? Just realized it was for spring/summer. Feel free to start a winter 2013/2014 thread for northern ohio. Time to close the blinds until Monday. Majority of the snow has melted at this point. It's going to be really messy when the ground thaws. Gfs and euro shows how short window for les next Monday night/Tuesday. winds looks to be 290 which is great for most of the area. Let's hope we can cash in while a decent flow is in place. I think you can just edit the first post. The QPF agreement for tomorrow and Sunday is pretty impressive. Even the Euro has been consistent with 2.5"+ of rain. Even the GFS has over 4" at CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 21, 2013 Author Share Posted December 21, 2013 Thanks, Trent. That worked. I noticed the Chagrin River was just about over its banks earlier today. If some of those totals verify there is going to be significant flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 22, 2013 Author Share Posted December 22, 2013 A toasty 62 out there this morning. Just had a flock of geese fly over the house...what month is this? Hopefully this weather cleared the ice... But its doubtful as the western basin has been steady in the mid 30's while we've torched just east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 22, 2013 Share Posted December 22, 2013 Yeah, that was a very tight gradient with the cold front. I'm sure that ice broke up quite a bit, however I would have liked to have seen 60s reported in Toledo this morning. The negative temp departure at CLE for the month is rapidly eroding. Wouldn't be surprised to see it only running a degree below normal tomorrow. But it should slowly drop back down for the last week of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 23, 2013 Share Posted December 23, 2013 This event could be interesting. I threw a map and brief write-up together for FB and may as well post it here. I think there is some decent upside here especially if we don't see moisture pull away too quickly on Tuesday. CLE was talking about likely advisories and I agree for the most part but it would not completely surprise me to see parts of Ashtabula and possibly Geauga Counties push warning criteria snows late Monday night through Tuesday evening. Interesting forecast due to a upper level disturbance rotating through and ice cover questions west of the Lake Erie islands. Monday afternoon and evening models suggest marginally favorable LES conditions with inversions near 6-7k feet and decent moisture below that level. Lake to 850mb temp differentials will run on the order of 14-15C and winds will be fairly well aligned. This is just a brief window Monday afternoon and evening but may put down an inch or two in the primary Snowbelt with westerly winds. By late Monday evening synoptic moisture improves and synoptic lift improves which may result in general light snows across Northern Ohio with lake enhanced snow in the Snowbelt. With a W or WSW flow Monday night the best lake enhancement would be across Lake, Ashtabula and northern Geauga Counties into NW PA. 2-4” may fall here Monday night. On Tuesday the trough moves by and winds come around to the WNW to NW and mid-level temperatures fall. Lake induced instability will be moderate to perhaps extreme on Tuesday with inversions above 10k feet from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon. Directional shear will be greater than 30 degrees at times on Tuesday but with some synoptic moisture from the trough hanging around into Tuesday afternoon we may still see a decent lake “enhanced” snow pattern into Tuesday afternoon with more traditional lake effect late Tuesday into Tuesday evening. The ridge axis moves overhead Tuesday night effectively shutting off lake effect. Given the potential for 8-12 hours of good LES conditions on Tuesday after the winds go WNW and then NW there could be an additional 3-6” in favored locales. There was definitely a fair amount of ice west of the Lake Erie islands before this latest warm-up. I have a feeling shifting and at times gusty winds…a high amount of runoff into the lake…and a solid 72-84 hours above freezing have significantly shifted/broken up this ice. The Toledo lighthouse cam showed breaks in the ice on Sunday. Without clear skies to look at the ice on MODIS imagery it’s tough to know for sure how much it broke up/moved but I have a feeling the hi-res models that initialized with significant ice cover west of about Lorain are initialized with too much ice. With a WNW to NW flow the secondary Snowbelt could see decent snows but with some questions on ice cover I won’t go as high here as I could. Places like northern Geauga County into parts of Ashtabula County that will be favored for most of the event may see upwards of 8” of snow locally but due to some uncertainty (especially with any decent snow before late Monday night and how quickly things cut off Tuesday evening-night) will cap amounts at 4-8” over the course of 24-36 hours. Images attached are my map, NAM wind profile at CLE, NAM RH profile at CLE, NAM sounding valid 18z Tuesday for CGF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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