Trent Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 The models show things flipping to snow in Cleveland tonight around midnight...it's looking like maybe 2-4" tonight. The Euro still struggles to get heavy snow north of about a MFD-AKR-YNG line with the next wave of low pressure tomorrow afternoon and evening. I'd think maybe another 1-3" Cleveland with that and 3-6" additional mainly south of US 30...so, a few inches could well fall across Cuyahoga County but I'd think it should be manageable given how spread out it will be. The timing of both waves of precip will be bad so both commutes could be affected tomorrow with one wave tonight after midnight and another tomorrow afternoon and evening, even if amounts aren't too heavy. Looking out the window, probably a tad under an inch fell last night. CLE had a half inch through midnight, with probably another half inch thereafter. The first slug of precip definitely wasn't as far north as originally thought. Now it's seeming like the next slug of precip in the 3pm-8pm time frame will be our next chance of accumulating snow. However, it looks like that could just as easily graze us like the event last week. I'd be happy with 3" total out of this, enough to keep the ground covered through the cold spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Looking out the window, probably a tad under an inch fell last night. CLE had a half inch through midnight, with probably another half inch thereafter. The first slug of precip definitely wasn't as far north as originally thought. Now it's seeming like the next slug of precip in the 3pm-8pm time frame will be our next chance of accumulating snow. However, it looks like that could just as easily graze us like the event last week. I'd be happy with 3" total out of this, enough to keep the ground covered through the cold spell. Same here... right around an inch last night. We'll see what happens this afternoon. Tight gradient once again... I wouldn't be surprised if we only pick up another inch. The models seem to be too far north with the precip like last last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Trends look poor for this afternoon. Probably an inch max for most northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Ya not looking good. About an inch here overnight. Yesterday's runs were definitely intriguing. Hows the lake effect looking for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Ya not looking good. About an inch here overnight. Yesterday's runs were definitely intriguing. Hows the lake effect looking for next week? Still a long way out... but the flow looks to be WSW, not coming around to the WNW until Thursday. NW PA and WNY would be the jackpot zones. Still some time to change but we'll most likely be dry and cold if the flow holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Heh, if things ever changeover here I may out snow you guys with this storm down here...which is not as easy as it sounds. It's been 34-35 with rain since around midnight here...yikes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 The model flip flopping on this event within 24-48 hours was pretty bad. Whatever happened to that NW trend? Looks like the Euro did best for these parts. In terms of QPF verification, CLE sits at a storm total of 0.18" and counting (perhaps an additional few hundredths). By the looks of things now, you'll need to go quite a ways south before you hit that 0.50" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I ended up with 1.7" total here, two rounds of snow separated by 14 hours of above freezing temps. A little over an inch on the ground now. CLE with 2.2" total, so looks like Athens just edged them out! It's been nice to have a 'normal' start to the snow season, even if it's just been nickels and dimes thus far. Through today, CLE will be right at normal for the season with regards to snowfall. But of course, those on the east side are sitting at a good 15" or so for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I ended up with 1.7" total here, two rounds of snow separated by 14 hours of above freezing temps. A little over an inch on the ground now. CLE with 2.2" total, so looks like Athens just edged them out! It's been nice to have a 'normal' start to the snow season, even if it's just been nickels and dimes thus far. Through today, CLE will be right at normal for the season with regards to snowfall. But of course, those on the east side are sitting at a good 15" or so for the season. I don't think we've had anywhere near 15" so far, maybe 4" or 5" total. The grass in my yard has not yet been totally covered this season, that's my rough rule of thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 I don't think we've had anywhere near 15" so far, maybe 4" or 5" total. The grass in my yard has not yet been totally covered this season, that's my rough rule of thumb. The late October heavy, lake-effect snow alone was 5" at my house. It's amazing how fairly small but frequent snowfalls add-up in the lake effect snow belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shsg Falls Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 What are the thoughts for lake effect next week? The GFS temperatures/arctic air look more moderated than previous runs, but it looks like a couple days with cold air advection, WNW boundary layer wind and the ridge axis doesn't pass until Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 What are the thoughts for lake effect next week? The GFS temperatures/arctic air look more moderated than previous runs, but it looks like a couple days with cold air advection, WNW boundary layer wind and the ridge axis doesn't pass until Thursday night. I'm not too terribly optimistic for most of you guys for a few reasons. The GFS/Euro both show due west or even WSW winds through Wednesday morning. This usually supports snow hugging the shoreline in Lake/Ashtabula Counties. In addition, the airmass will be extremely dry through Wednesday morning. 850mb temps get down to around -12 to -15C over the lake on both models in this timeframe which is cold enough, but neither model suggests lake induced equilibrium levels much higher than about 6k feet Monday night-Wednesday morning. With the winds paralleling the lakeshore and favoring convergence there a band may develop and drop locally a few inches Monday night-Wednesday morning in parts of Lakes/Ashtabula Counties but I don't see a ton of potential for more due to the dry air and low inversion. Both models show a shortwave rotating through Wednesday afternoon/evening with an increase in moisture and a brief turn of the winds to a more WNW or even NW direction. This could for a time shift the snow showers into the Cleveland metro and the Snowbelt. Equilibrium levels still don't look great and this will be a brief more favorable window so at this point I don't think this would be a ton of snow...maybe a dusting to a couple inches here and there. By Thursday morning the models bring the flow back to more of a due westerly one with drier air in place. Equilibrium levels remain marginal but it will be unstable enough under the inversion for some lake effect. With a west wind this may direct a band with light to moderate snow again into Lake, Ashtabula and possibly northern Geauga Counties...maybe someone could sqeak a few inches out of that. By Thursday night the ridge starts building in and this should start pushing the snow up the shoreline towards NW PA and W NY. All in all I see too many negatives for this to be a good event although I'm sure there will be at least some lake effect around this week. And yes, I measured 2.4" here on campus and a 911 call center in Athens called in 2.8" to the NWS, so I did just barely outsnow you guys yesterday . It all came in a few hours and for about an hour after the changeover the rates were 1" per hour so it was nice for what it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I don't think we've had anywhere near 15" so far, maybe 4" or 5" total. The grass in my yard has not yet been totally covered this season, that's my rough rule of thumb. Mayfield Heights has done quite well. There was about 8" locally in the October storm. 2-4" more in that early November storm. A couple inches around Thanksgiving, another 2-3 inches yesterday, then toss in a couple more .5-1" events and some places along I-271 in Cuyahoga County are easily over 15", but with lake effect, it's wildly variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 I don't think we've had anywhere near 15" so far, maybe 4" or 5" total. The grass in my yard has not yet been totally covered this season, that's my rough rule of thumb. That's odd. I'm over 16" for the season. Where are you in the Chagrin area? I'm about a mile east of 306 off of Bell Rd. 4-5" total seems extremely low unless you live south of 422... and even then the airport has seen more snow than YBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 The model flip flopping on this event within 24-48 hours was pretty bad. Whatever happened to that NW trend? Looks like the Euro did best for these parts. In terms of QPF verification, CLE sits at a storm total of 0.18" and counting (perhaps an additional few hundredths). By the looks of things now, you'll need to go quite a ways south before you hit that 0.50" line. That's something to keep in mind this year. Models have been awful in the 24-48 hour time frame. NW trend died apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Still looks like there will be some lake effect the next few days. Winds become fairly well aligned tonight into Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning out of the west, so even with a fairly dry airmass there could be a band with fluffy snow that affects Lake, Ashtabula and possibly extreme NE Cuyahoga and northern Geauga Counties both nights with perhaps a few inches each night where that band occurs. A trough moves by Wednesday with more of a NW flow with it...probably will be an area wide increase in snow showers Wednesday afternoon with lake effect leftover Wednesday night into Thursday. If the winds go more NW the airmass will probably be too dry for anything decent, if they stay more W or WNW Wednesday night into Thursday there could be another band of moderate snow that develops.Next weekend looks a bit more interesting and I'll be in Northern Ohio at this point, with a piece of energy riding along the baroclinic zone as it moves out of the SW, spreading an area of light to moderate synoptic snow to someone. Most models show that being Northern Ohio right now, however I'd be slightly worried about that shifting north if the arctic air isn't quite as aggressive in diving down as shown, given we will be in a modestly +PNA and strongly +NAO/AO pattern by the end of the week. The Euro ensembles appear to show a cross polar flow late into this week with extensive cold in Canada so it's not unreasonable to think we could at least get a transient shot of that air into our area, but we'll need to watch the timing/strength of it and see if it changes at all and affects any synoptic snow chances. The Euro/GFS suites appear to agree pretty closely in details and show the system wrapping up to our east with a cyclonic flow lingering over the Great Lakes through at least Sunday, with both ensemble means getting 850mb temps down to around -15C by Sunday which is pretty impressive for this far out. If this occurs we'd probably see decent lake effect in the Great Lakes, although how much falls in Ohio is still much too early to call. Early indications are this may be more of a NW flow event with both models at this point showing pretty good synoptic moisture hanging back behind the storm wrapping up to our east/NE. So, despite for calls of a warmer pattern by mid-month (including by myself) we continue to see some signs of interesting weather through at least next weekend here in Ohio...and the Euro ensembles between days 10-15 don't necessarily suggest a boring pattern building in either even after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 9, 2013 Author Share Posted December 9, 2013 Still looks like there will be some lake effect the next few days. Winds become fairly well aligned tonight into Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning out of the west, so even with a fairly dry airmass there could be a band with fluffy snow that affects Lake, Ashtabula and possibly extreme NE Cuyahoga and northern Geauga Counties both nights with perhaps a few inches each night where that band occurs. A trough moves by Wednesday with more of a NW flow with it...probably will be an area wide increase in snow showers Wednesday afternoon with lake effect leftover Wednesday night into Thursday. If the winds go more NW the airmass will probably be too dry for anything decent, if they stay more W or WNW Wednesday night into Thursday there could be another band of moderate snow that develops. Next weekend looks a bit more interesting and I'll be in Northern Ohio at this point, with a piece of energy riding along the baroclinic zone as it moves out of the SW, spreading an area of light to moderate synoptic snow to someone. Most models show that being Northern Ohio right now, however I'd be slightly worried about that shifting north if the arctic air isn't quite as aggressive in diving down as shown, given we will be in a modestly +PNA and strongly +NAO/AO pattern by the end of the week. The Euro ensembles appear to show a cross polar flow late into this week with extensive cold in Canada so it's not unreasonable to think we could at least get a transient shot of that air into our area, but we'll need to watch the timing/strength of it and see if it changes at all and affects any synoptic snow chances. The Euro/GFS suites appear to agree pretty closely in details and show the system wrapping up to our east with a cyclonic flow lingering over the Great Lakes through at least Sunday, with both ensemble means getting 850mb temps down to around -15C by Sunday which is pretty impressive for this far out. If this occurs we'd probably see decent lake effect in the Great Lakes, although how much falls in Ohio is still much too early to call. Early indications are this may be more of a NW flow event with both models at this point showing pretty good synoptic moisture hanging back behind the storm wrapping up to our east/NE. So, despite for calls of a warmer pattern by mid-month (including by myself) we continue to see some signs of interesting weather through at least next weekend here in Ohio...and the Euro ensembles between days 10-15 don't necessarily suggest a boring pattern building in either even after next weekend. Even though a WSW wind direction sucks for OH... the good news is that there should be a strong band over the lake on the sustained WSW flow. We tend to get a decent burst as the band comes on shore with the wind shift/trough passage. Hopefully the flow doesn't turn too NW'erly. 270-300 would sustain a primary band out to the western basin. Lake temps have crashed out west... hopefully we can get a decent LES before the western basin ices over. Good to see there are snow opportunities in the long range as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Even though a WSW wind direction sucks for OH... the good news is that there should be a strong band over the lake on the sustained WSW flow. We tend to get a decent burst as the band comes on shore with the wind shift/trough passage. Hopefully the flow doesn't turn too NW'erly. 270-300 would sustain a primary band out to the western basin. Lake temps have crashed out west... hopefully we can get a decent LES before the western basin ices over. Good to see there are snow opportunities in the long range as well. I just looked at the lake temps, it wouldn't shock me if there's a good amount of shore ice in the western basin by later this week, which shouldn't really hurt this weekend's LES chances...the eastern 3/4ths of the basin are still 40+ for now (I was honestly surprised they hadn't slipped into the 30's). What would really be preferable is like a week long torch in late December or early January with the arctic getting unleashed in early January before I go back to OU, but what are the odds it works out that well for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Things definitely look cold in the near term. If I'm looking correctly it appears the Euro takes CLE down to -4F mid next week. With an air mass like that, you can bet the western basin will be an ice rink. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Looks like we will have a 12-18 hour window for les tomorrow night into Thursday, at least for those that need a wnw flow. Could be a brief, but intense snowfall. Then all eyes on the system this weekend. If anything, looks like a moderate synoptic event with les on the backside. This may be our last opportunity for the western basin to deliver before ice cover... If it even holds off that long. They really need to deepen that part of the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's unfortunate we couldn't get the right wind flow with these arctic air masses. It seems the trend has been slightly weaker with each run for Saturday's system. But we should still squeeze out some sort of decent system snow out of this. Euro would be about 3-5" for the region. If the last two systems have been any indicator, watch out for the models trying to beef this system up on Thursday night/Friday morning only to bring it back down each run before it hits. In the meantime, perhaps a few lucky folks will get something interesting with clipper and LES tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 It's unfortunate we couldn't get the right wind flow with these arctic air masses. It seems the trend has been slightly weaker with each run for Saturday's system. But we should still squeeze out some sort of decent system snow out of this. Euro would be about 3-5" for the region. If the last two systems have been any indicator, watch out for the models trying to beef this system up on Thursday night/Friday morning only to bring it back down each run before it hits. In the meantime, perhaps a few lucky folks will get something interesting with clipper and LES tonight. Exactly... we've been charlie brown'd with the last two systems. I'm feeling a bit more optimistic that we don't get missed to the SE this time. CLE is really downplaying the LES tonight/tomorrow. The BUF meso models look pretty weak QPF wise. I'm guessing once the clipper passed we'll get a burst of snow followed by a pencil thin band that runs from eastern cuyahoga through geauga. Most likely North of MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Just took a look at the Toledo lighthouse webcam.... lot's of ice cover out there. I'm sure there is open water toward the middle of the western basin but it may not last more than day or two with these conditions. Wow is that early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Wow that does seem early! I've lived up here 3 years and it usually seems like January is when ice starts forming. Hopefully we can get a decent event still. Little bit of light snow out there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Gosh, I was really hoping we could limp to mid-December without any ice in the western basin I was looking at MODIS imagery, and unfortunately the site that has Lake Erie images all nice and zoomed in didn't want to load from me, but from a more zoomed out look it looks like you can see some ice over the far western basin through the clouds yesterday...but it's tough to tell for sure. There's certainly some there and more will form tonight. The models are right now rather insistent on keeping this weekend's system a strung out mess which has its pros and cons...that would keep the system from wrapping up and pulling in warm air, but would minimize how much synoptic snow we can see and pulls down less cold air and makes Sunday's lake effect more timid. There's a growing consensus on about 3-5" of synoptic which I'd take. There should be a clipper or two next week too, so we'll definitely see our snow, but we may not see anything tremendously heavy. Looking ahead the models showing the current -EPO relaxing before redeveloping late next week...this looks to dump cold into the west initially with possibly a storm we'd be on the warm side of next weekend. Behind this some cold would likely spill in and both the GFS/Euro ensembles try to develop some kind of cross-polar flow as the ridging builds back over AK next week, so we'll see if the cold would be decent. Both the GFS/Euro ensembles move cold in for Christmas week so maybe a white Christmas if we can muster any snow out of the deal. We'll see, I'd still love to get a two day torch with rain/strong southerly winds and blast away any ice and then get a nice cold blast to flare off the lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Radar has lit up, let's see how long the lake effect can hold through the evening. When I left work there wasn't much of anything going, but by the end of my drive it was dumping snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We've got a nice east/west band hugging the lakeshore into the Primary Snow Belt out east. Timing couldn't have been worse than at rush hour. 1" per hour rates, but we'll see how long it lasts before it pushes farther up the coast overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Make that 2" per hour rates. I think this METAR sums up this short but sweet event nicely: KCLE 120051Z 26010KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV007 M05/M07 A3034 RMK AO2 SLP285 SNINCR 2/3 P0005 T10501072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dta1984 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Very heavy snow out there ! Definitely believe the 2"/hr rate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yeah, rates were impressive in the band earlier. Picked up close to 3" in a short time. Heaviest snow of the season. Still a few intermittment squalls but things are winding down right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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