Northern Ohio Obs/Discussion

[zero26800]

Looks like we hit about 4.5 inches in kent. Seeing the lake effect get rolling now.

[CranberryWX]

Measured 8" of heavy wet snow in Girard, pretty compacted by the time I got out this morning. A misty rain is falling and the wind is picking up at 8:30 AM. Nice winter wonderland type scene out there.

[dta1984]

Measured 4" this morning ...though some of that could have been leftover from the other day.

[NEOH]

Good to see the radar lighting up. Hopefully we'll see a decent snowfall today. Last night was a little disappointing... although it is a winter wonderland out there. Looking at the regional radar... it looks like the huron connected band is already pushing well east, but I'm sure we are still benefiting from the additional moisture with the northerly flow.

[Trent]

Looks like maybe another inch has fallen from Enhancement/LES here in mayfield heights since this morning. Things have quieted down, but looks like models try to fire things back up this afternoon.

[OHweather]

Surprisingly another inch, maybe a tad more, here in Reminderville this morning. Really has been just a steady light snow with a couple of moderate bursts.

 

There is a really nice punch of dry air that should cut things down to just flurries for a couple of hours. Trent mentioned the models reflare things a bit this afternoon and that would likely be because of a bit of a trough currently passing Port Huron. The snow over Lake Huron is rather intense as it moves by and I'd expect a similar uptick here by around 2:00PM. There is a good amount of wind shear right now (winds at 700mb are almost due west) but as the trough passes the winds should become better aligned. Temps will also cool a bit more which should help.

 

The winds over Lake Huron have gone northerly behind the trough...the models unanimously show the winds remaining more NW-NNW over Lake Erie behind the trough but the re-oriented bands over Lake Huron may force the Lake Huron enhanced band west this afternoon...possibly as far west as I-271 although that's probably best case.;

[OHweather]

Lol like clockwork, let the snow break up for a couple of hours (when signs point to it re-flaring later) and CLE immediately drops all advisories/warnings except for Ashtabula. We'll see what happens by mid afternoon I guess.

[NEOH]

Lol like clockwork, let the snow break up for a couple of hours (when signs point to it re-flaring later) and CLE immediately drops all advisories/warnings except for Ashtabula. We'll see what happens by mid afternoon I guess.

Should be a better setup once the trough passes. It's pretty evident looking at the visible satellite where the trough is. Seems like its hard to get les going once it stops so we'll see. Hopefully we'll get a flare up later this afternoon. Too bad there isn't a better fetch to work with.

[Chinook]

OT, but where'd you get the color table? GRLevelStuff website is offline.

I went to GRlevelx owners forum

 

All_Mixed_SP2 color table

 

actually I might try the color table called "All-winter_Var2_SM"

 

http://www.grlevelx.com/owners/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=160&start=330

[OHweather]

Should be a better setup once the trough passes. It's pretty evident looking at the visible satellite where the trough is. Seems like its hard to get les going once it stops so we'll see. Hopefully we'll get a flare up later this afternoon. Too bad there isn't a better fetch to work with.

We flared back up. The strong winds may be pushing the heaviest snow out of Cuyahoga County at this point, but there are some decent moderate bursts inland with Ashtabula and YNG down near a mile consistently with YNG recently dropping to half mile visibility in a snow shower. If a good band can setup there would be nice little accums but if we just have a bursting pattern accums will stay light. We'll see how it plays out over the next few hours.

[CranberryWX]

We flared back up. The strong winds may be pushing the heaviest snow out of Cuyahoga County at this point, but there are some decent moderate bursts inland with Ashtabula and YNG down near a mile consistently with YNG recently dropping to half mile visibility in a snow shower. If a good band can setup there would be nice little accums but if we just have a bursting pattern accums will stay light. We'll see how it plays out over the next few hours.

We're at the In-laws just about 7 miles south of YNG airport...picked up about 3 to 4 inches of light fluffy LE snow this afternoon. It covered up the roads again.

[OHweather]

We're at the In-laws just about 7 miles south of YNG airport...picked up about 3 to 4 inches of light fluffy LE snow this afternoon. It covered up the roads again.

Not bad! I'm glad someone got some good lake effect today. Another 0.3" this evening to bring the daily total to 1.4" and the "storm total" to 4.6". I drove through some near whiteout conditions in southern Geauga and northern Portage Counties around 4:30PM although they weren't too organized and didn't drop a ton in that area.

[NEOH]

Not bad! I'm glad someone got some good lake effect today. Another 0.3" this evening to bring the daily total to 1.4" and the "storm total" to 4.6". I drove through some near whiteout conditions in southern Geauga and northern Portage Counties around 4:30PM although they weren't too organized and didn't drop a ton in that area.

We had a few nice squalls this afternoon... But the les looks like it is shutting down. Short fetch and dry air... If only we had a wnw wind to improve both fetch and moisture. That band off of Huron looks intense. Maybe we'll get one last burst as winds back.

[OHweather]

We had a few nice squalls this afternoon... But the les looks like it is shutting down. Short fetch and dry air... If only we had a wnw wind to improve both fetch and moisture. That band off of Huron looks intense. Maybe we'll get one last burst as winds back.

I think it was synoptic but it snowed lightly here much of the morning. The models show a little flare-up late tonight into tomorrow as the weak clipper moves away and winds come around to the W and then WNW...maybe an inch or two east of Cleveland. Quiet weather into next week before the models show a whopper of a cool down for the second week of December.

 

Anyways, happy Thanksgiving to everyone! Glad it's a white one.

[Trent]

Picked up 0.6" this morning. Just enough to freshen the snow from the last system.

[NEOH]

Happy Thanksgiving... looks and feels more like Christmas out there. Perhaps an inch or so as OHWeather mentioned later tonight/tomorrow.

[dta1984]

Happy thanksgiving all

[NEOH]

From BUF's long term disco... what mid-month warm up?

 

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THIS FIRST BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL JUST BE A GLANCING BLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
DRAMATICALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON. TYPICALLY IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THIS COLD AIR SPREADS EAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THE PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
TO ALLOW THIS COLD AIR TO SPREAD EAST IN THE 8-14 DAY RANGE WHICH WOULD BRING A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

 

Looks like we will be a on the good side of the gradients come Friday. Hopefully can pick-up a few inches with each wave.

 

[OHweather]

From BUF's long term disco... what mid-month warm up?

 

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD...THIS FIRST BATCH OF COLD AIR WILL JUST BE A GLANCING BLOW OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...TRUE ARCTIC AIR WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES

DRAMATICALLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON. TYPICALLY IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THIS COLD AIR SPREADS EAST. ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THE PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE

TO ALLOW THIS COLD AIR TO SPREAD EAST IN THE 8-14 DAY RANGE WHICH WOULD BRING A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO OUR REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH.

 

Looks like we will be a on the good side of the gradients come Friday. Hopefully can pick-up a few inches with each wave.

 

I honestly disagree with BUF here. The pattern could be an interesting one for northern Ohio Friday-Monday, and it could get verry cold for a time around the middle of next week...lake temps will continue to really fall. But it looks like the strong ridge over Alaska that has been funneling cold into Canada recently will weaken towards mid-month and I don't see anything else to force cold in. We probably won't torch but I'd expect things to return closer to normal temp wise after next week.

[nwohweather]

Rivers are already iced over a bit in NW Ohio, crazy for early December

[Trent]

No surprise rivers are starting to freeze over. Lake Erie is the coldest it's been for this time of year for several years. The western basin will be frozen in no time if this keeps up, which could have negative snow implications later on.

CLE still running a negative departure for snowfall despite what seems numerous small events.

[Trent]

Seems like it could be another graze job to the south with snow at the end of the week. I'm not counting on any northward adjustments. Perhaps another 1-2" as the seasonal total creeps up.

[NEOH]

Seems like it could be another graze job to the south with snow at the end of the week. I'm not counting on any northward adjustments. Perhaps another 1-2" as the seasonal total creeps up.

Yeah, looks like a scraper with highest amounts south and east. Trends are not good with next weeks storm... slop to rain to snow at the end. We've had decent start to winter so no complaints. Would be need to see more eastern solution with the low next week though.

[Trent]

Yeah, looks like a scraper with highest amounts south and east. Trends are not good with next weeks storm... slop to rain to snow at the end. We've had decent start to winter so no complaints. Would be need to see more eastern solution with the low next week though.

 

CLE starting to honk the LES potential for next week already:

 

TUESDAY THROUGH

THURSDAY MODELS UNLEASH THE ARCTIC WITH -16C TO -18C AIR AT 850MB

OVER THE LAKE. FLOW WILL BE WNW SO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT

FOR THE SNOWBELT.

 

We'll see how the trends look as we get closer. 

[NEOH]

CLE starting to honk the LES potential for next week already:

 

TUESDAY THROUGH

THURSDAY MODELS UNLEASH THE ARCTIC WITH -16C TO -18C AIR AT 850MB

OVER THE LAKE. FLOW WILL BE WNW SO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT

FOR THE SNOWBELT.

 

We'll see how the trends look as we get closer.

CLE seems to throw out a lot of those statements lately. Hard to believe we will get grazed by 2 storms to the SE, only to have one come overhead with a changeover to rain. It's always tough to get a favorable track for this area. Still time for adjustments but not looking good at this point.

[Trent]

CLE seems to throw out a lot of those statements lately. Hard to believe we will get grazed by 2 storms to the SE, only to have one come overhead with a changeover to rain. It's always tough to get a favorable track for this area. Still time for adjustments but not looking good at this point.

 

Yeah. It seems like when we are 5 days out from a Lake Effect event they like to talk it up. As each day gets closer, the threat diminishes, or the threat becomes a NW PA event.

 

AS THIS AIR SPILLS ACROSS LAKE ERIE ON MONDAY NIGHT

THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT

SNOW. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH

THE PERIOD WITH SOME MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST BAND AS A COUPLE

PIECES OF JET ENERGY MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY

NIGHT. SINCE THE AIR WILL BE SO COLD THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND

FLUFFY AND WILL BE EASILY BLOWN AROUND. THE FLUFFY NATURE WILL ALSO

ALLOW FOR SOME IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW PA

INTO WESTERN NY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

[Trent]

Anyone see the NAM for tonight and tomorrow? Significant shift north with 6-8" for northeast Ohio through tomorrow night. Gotta love these teaser runs.

[Trent]

Well this is certainly interesting. Can't wait to read the discussion out of CLE soon. There's going to be a lot of people caught off guard if the 12z models are right.

Currently no headlines out for the CWA, but they'll surely be needed.

I'm wondering how quickly we shift from rain to snow tonight?

[OHweather]

The models show things flipping to snow in Cleveland tonight around midnight...it's looking like maybe 2-4" tonight. The Euro still struggles to get heavy snow north of about a MFD-AKR-YNG line with the next wave of low pressure tomorrow afternoon and evening. I'd think maybe another 1-3" Cleveland with that and 3-6" additional mainly south of US 30...so, a few inches could well fall across Cuyahoga County but I'd think it should be manageable given how spread out it will be. The timing of both waves of precip will be bad so both commutes could be affected tomorrow with one wave tonight after midnight and another tomorrow afternoon and evening, even if amounts aren't too heavy.

[NEOH]

Just got out of all day meeting... great to see models beefed up snowfall tonight/tomorrow for the NE part of the state. Going to be a sharp cut off again though. Really surprised to see 4-6 in the snowfall map.