Chaser25973 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 From Mt. Holly .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DOWNPOURS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. Upton makes no mention of anything severe so I would disagree that the any advisory or watch is needed. The public is already weary of all the named winter storms and hyping of blizzards that never came. You can't put out an advisory/watch/warning everytime we get a thundershower. As long as its mentioned that we are getting thunderstorms I think people get the idea. The problem is that nobody actually reads that. The average person doesn't log onto the NWS home page, put in their zip code and read the Forecast Discussion. They hear it on the radio, or turn on the news or go to the Weather Channel's homepage. A Severe Thunderstorm Advisory would be a product that would be produced on the radio, news and TWC - but it's minor enough to just let people know to be on the lookout for it. If a Watch were issued, that's a whole nuther story. An advisory would've been issued much earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 That radar looks like something out of the 1990s. I mean, really, they should upgrade the graphics on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 There seems to be a cluster firing up near Newark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 The problem is that nobody actually reads that. The average person doesn't log onto the NWS home page, put in their zip code and read the Forecast Discussion. They hear it on the radio, or turn on the news or go to the Weather Channel's homepage. A Severe Thunderstorm Advisory would be a product that would be produced on the radio, news and TWC - but it's minor enough to just let people know to be on the lookout for it. If a Watch were issued, that's a whole nuther story. An advisory would've been issued much earlier today. But if people are watching the news or listening to the radio the weather is on enough that people will hear that storms are on the way. If they put an advisory every time a storm is in the area people will ignore that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I'm expecting Strong Thunderstorms out of this. Definitely a nice refresher from the dry weather We've had for the past 10 Days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 There seems to be a cluster firing up near Newark... Looks like it lost some thump right after it crossed over Parsippany. Little thunderstorm over Somerset County now too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Reports out NE PA storms:0517 PM TSTM WND DMG MOUNTAIN TOP 41.17N 75.90W04/10/2013 LUZERNE PA BROADCAST MEDIA TREE SNAPPED BY STRONG WINDS. REPORTED BY WBRE-TV. 0519 PM TSTM WND DMG PECKVILLE 41.48N 75.62W04/10/2013 LACKAWANNA PA 911 CENTER TREE DOWN INTO A HOUSE 0524 PM TSTM WND DMG CLARKS SUMMIT 41.49N 75.71W04/10/2013 LACKAWANNA PA 911 CENTER POLES AND WIRES DOWN 0527 PM TSTM WND DMG OLYPHANT 41.45N 75.58W04/10/2013 LACKAWANNA PA 911 CENTER ROOF OFF A BUILDING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I'm not too excited about this anywhere east of Warren/Sussex counties but I guess we'll see. There is virtually no instability...just a small elevated unstable layer. Lapse rates are also very poor east of Morristown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Looks like a nice hail core with that supercell just west of the Delaware in NE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I'm expecting Strong Thunderstorms out of this. Definitely a nice refresher from the dry weather We've had for the past 10 Days. Very impressive cell about to enter Sussex/Warren NJ. All the activity over NE NJ dissipated. Interesting that the line seems to be heading for northern half of NJ and areas north and west of the city. I thought the focus was going to be over central/south NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 The main line in NE PA is collapsing pretty fast as expected...what we'll probably see now is the usual deal where new updrafts develop on and outflow boundary that runs ahead of the original storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Hopefully I get some lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Pouring rain and a good amount of thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Very impressive cell about to enter Sussex/Warren NJ. All the activity over NE NJ dissipated. Interesting that the line seems to be heading for northern half of NJ and areas north and west of the city. I thought the focus was going to be over central/south NJ. Yeah, probably has a lot to do with the further north than expected WF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 551 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... PASSAIC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY... ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT... * AT 545 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 33 MILES NORTHWEST OF WALDEN TO 46 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PORT JERVIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OTISVILLE...UNIONVILLE...MIDDLETOWN...GOSHEN...MONTGOMERY... FLORIDA...WARWICK...CHESTER...WEST MILFORD...GREENWOOD LAKE... GARDNERTOWN...MONROE...NEWBURGH...HARRIMAN...NEW WINDSOR... BLOOMINGDALE AND RINGWOOD PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS! && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 These storms may be feeding of convergence off the warm front. But I think they weaken or become elevated before reaching NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 That's not a bad looking rear inflow jet for early in April behind the bow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 336 ACUS11 KWNS 102200 SWOMCD SPC MCD 102159 NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-102300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0431 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS PA...ERN OH...NRN WV PANHANDLE...SERN NY...NRN NJ. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 102159Z - 102300Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...TWO PRIMARY/BOWING TSTM COMPLEXES -- ONE MOVING NEWD OUT OF NERN PA...SECOND MOVING EWD FROM NERN OH -- ARE FCST TO OFFER DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. EASTERN ONE WILL BE SHORTER-LIVED...MOVING INTO MORE STABLE AIR. WESTERN COMPLEX MAY PERSIST WITH SVR THREAT RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM FIRST. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THEIR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY PRODUCE OCNL HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS...BUT THREAT FROM THOSE APPEARS MRGL/TRANSIENT. ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL N OF BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY SUB-SVR...BUT WITH ISOLATED HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS AND STG GUSTS. NEW WW IS BEING CONSIDERED THAT WOULD COVER WRN COMPLEX. DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED COLD MARINE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR ACY NNWWD ACROSS BUCKS COUNTY PA THAN ARCHING OVER PIKE COUNTY PA AND SULLIVAN COUNTY NY...HAVING ALREADY PASSED MSV. THIS BOUNDARY CORRESPONDS WELL TO FINE LINE EVIDENT IN COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS...MOVING WWD 5-10 KT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN WITHIN NEXT 1-2 HOURS FROM N-S...BY MCS MOVING EWD 45-50 KT OVER NERN PA. QUASISTATIONARY FRONT INTERSECTED MCS OVER NERN PA NEAR BORDER WITH SULLIVAN COUNTY NY...AND EXTENDED ENEWD ACROSS SWRN MA. NARROW PLUME OF RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED WARM SECTOR WITH AT LEAST MRGLLY SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE INFLOW PARCELS IS EVIDENT BETWEEN LEADING MCS AND MARINE BOUNDARY...WITHIN WHICH MCS STILL POSES RISK OF STG-DAMAGING GUSTS. THIS RISK WILL DIMINISH SUBSTANTIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT INTO STABLE MARINE AIR...THOUGH BRIEF/ISOLATED PENETRATION OF CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO SFC CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR E AS HUDSON RIVER. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NERN PA COMPLEX WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHUMBERLAND/CAMBRIA/BEAVER COUNTIES PA INTO ERN OH...INTERSECTING NEXT MCS BETWEEN CAK-PHD. SECOND COMPLEX EXHIBITS VERY SIMILAR STRUCTURE AND MOVEMENT TO FIRST...BUT MORE INTENSE...PRODUCING GUSTS TO 56 KT AT POV AT 2117Z. ITS DAMAGING-WIND THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHERE STABLE LAYER BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AND DEEPER. NONETHELESS...60-80 KT REAR-INFLOW JET WAS EVIDENT IN CLE RADAR BASE VELOCITY DATA...INDICATING CONSIDERABLE MOMENTUM FOR WIND POTENTIAL TO PERSIST INTO WRN PA. NEAR AND S OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AIR MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPORADICALLY WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AWAY FROM SMALLER OUTFLOWS...SUPPORTING THREAT FOR SVR GUSTS. HOWEVER...DIABATIC SFC COOLING WILL STABILIZE THIS AIR MASS WITH TIME AND REDUCE ALREADY MRGL MLCAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG. AS SUCH...DAMAGING GUST POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AND EWD EXTENT ACROSS CENTRAL-ERN PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 about to get crushed here in Sussex.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Pea size hail right now in Stockholm...crazy storm..pulled to side of road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Some 1" hail reports over NE PA: 0509 PM HAIL AVOCA 41.34N 75.75W 04/10/2013 M1.00 INCH LUZERNE PA OTHER FEDERAL NSSL PING PROJECT 0600 PM HAIL EAST STROUDSBURG 41.00N 75.18W 04/10/2013 E1.00 INCH MONROE PA PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 If was quick but intense..lot of ctg lightning, winds gusted over 40 and pea size hail for a minute...great looking cloud structure too for the Sussex County storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112wxgrl Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 It was a quick hitter. There is lingering rain, thunder and lighting in Wantage, NJ. Fire siren just chimed, I hope no one got hurt in the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 It's feels good to have that dark ominous sky Storms aren't showing any signs of weakening as it heads into the NYC metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 It's feels good to have that dark ominous sky Storms aren't showing any signs of weakening as it heads into the NYC metro area They are weakening. All warnings have expired ASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN PASSAIC-EASTERNUNION-HUDSON-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-WESTERNBERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-619 PM EDT WED APR 10 2013...GUST FRONT FROM WEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACTBERGEN...ESSEX...HUDSON...PASSAIC...PUTNAM...ROCKLAND...UNION ANDWESTCHESTER COUNTIES...AT 611 PM EDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAS TRACKING AWEAKENING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY ANDWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS LINE AS IT MOVESINTO THE AREA. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EXPECTEDAS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Still a decent amount of cloud to ground lightning here in Vernon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Beautiful shelf cloud here with lots of lightning.Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 One of the best shelf clouds i've seen here in Jersey City,NJ in a long time. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Holy crap. These clouds are black. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Nice shelf. NIce to see the first lightning of the season. Suspect we gusted to near 40 in Lyndhurst with the outflow passage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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