Mitchell Gaines Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 The SPC has placed the region in a slight risk for severe storms Wednesday. Concerns for any severe weather are present with regards moisture/instabilty advection, frontal placement and any cloud cover already in place. Not to impressed on this set-up but strong to severe storms can't be ruled out. Will add another thread for reports, if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Hail and wind mostly will be the prime issues with this event I take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Hail and wind mostly will be the prime issues with this event I take it.I would rather have extreme heat instead of severe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Just some graphs to look at: I guess for april it's not too shabby. But we could be dealing with some crappy cloud cover in the am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 cant wait for the front to blow through and bring back avg temps. to warm to fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 looks like shear will be the driving mechanism along with with some cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 best chances, IMO, probably run between Turnpike and I-80 until late tonight...frontal boundary, best forcing all are north of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 cant wait for the front to blow through and bring back avg temps. to warm to fast Believe it or not, I kind of agree with you. Every year we get this. I love the warm/hot weather, but when it gets this warm this fast, normal temps fell somewhat "coolish" afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 30C temp differential between 850mb and 500mb forecast today. That's quite the lapse rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 30C temp differential between 850mb and 500mb forecast today. That's quite the lapse rate. Maybe the EML can produce? we'll see. HRRR and the hi-res nam seem to be honing in North of the city for the best chance. ( just like lassssssssssst year....) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I would rather have extreme heat instead of severe! Not me. I like severe thunderstorm threats nearly as much snowstorm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 the 0z SPC WRF around 20-24 hours (18z-0z forecasted time) shows something around SEPA. I don't believe the 12z run has come out yet, but i'll post nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Maybe the EML can produce? we'll see. HRRR and the hi-res nam seem to be honing in North of the city for the best chance. ( just like lassssssssssst year....) Well that Burlington County cell is right over the golf course I'm golfing at later, so I'll let you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Well that Burlington County cell is right over the golf course I'm golfing at later, so I'll let you know... Your driver should be an adequate lightning rod. NO WORRIES for you whatsoever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Not me. I like severe thunderstorm threats nearly as much snowstorm threats. But what if you are supposed to play tennis (like I am this evening)? As long as it holds off until after 7 PM, it works fine for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 I am hoping its between 4-7 as after 7 it's recert time for skywarn for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 new probs from spc are: 0%tor 15%Wind 5%Hail The 12z NAM focusing on the allentown corridor with the better chances. We'll see how today goes. 12z SPC WRF also not as enthusiastic as 0z. (not surprisingly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 But what if you are supposed to play tennis (like I am this evening)? As long as it holds off until after 7 PM, it works fine for me. Works for me as well! I know exactly what you're feeling. I think it was 2009, but it may have actually been 2010 - I had tennis regularly scheduled for Wednesday evenings, and it seemed like storms rolled in around 6 PM every week. The guy I played against moved to Reading last year, so I guess I've kind of retired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Meso discussion out to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Today's setup is a great reminder why the calendar matters for certain setups around here. There is an excellent EML and placement for our region to see any peripheral impacts. But because it is early April and not early June, our moisture source downright blows. Our low level moisture / theta-e is advecting from the Ohio Valley / Midwest and there is actually a dry pocket east of the Appalachians to our south with the ridge. A couple months later with a deep moist flow up the East Coast, summer-style, would promote a favorable pattern for a derecho/MCS etc. Don't get me wrong, today is a nice setup and I can't believe the MLLR with it!!! But the CAPE will not reflect that kind of anomaly given the meager moisture return. Maybe we'll see this again over the summer..... meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 the models were too high on the surface dews today for sure. I was a bit suspicious of the low 60s being forecast given the westerly flow and the time of year..nevertheless 50s dews in early Spring can be enough for severe. Will be interesting to see if that cluster in western PA can build southward enough and hold together to affect you guys...i also wonder what happens once that seabreeze/backdoor cold front showing up on radar races in this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Your driver should be an adequate lightning rod. NO WORRIES for you whatsoever! At least the backdoor came through. It was brutally hot for April. Not a bad thunderstorm here around 1030 pm. I had to go find my garbage pail lids this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 the 0z SPC WRF around 20-24 hours (18z-0z forecasted time) shows something around SEPA. I don't believe the 12z run has come out yet, but i'll post nonetheless. Just something to keep in mind as we move forward this spring, the the 0z SPC WRF verified quite well, the 12z and the HRRR were pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 At least the backdoor came through. It was brutally hot for April. Not a bad thunderstorm here around 1030 pm. I had to go find my garbage pail lids this morning. Even up here in sw CT i was pleasantly surprised with the remnants of the first Poconos round...nothing severe of course because we were well east in the cool sector, but the over all structure hung on as this shelf cloud rolled in with a weak gust front. Lightning display wasnt bad either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Even up here in sw CT i was pleasantly surprised with the remnants of the first Poconos round...nothing severe of course because we were well east in the cool sector, but the over all structure hung on as this shelf cloud rolled in with a weak gust front. Lightning display wasnt bad either. 047.jpg 056.jpg Great pictures!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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