Minnesota Meso Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Not sure where in MN, my guess it will be south of MSP, but confidence is low in that. There may be enough precip just north of the thermal boundary as the system ejects out that precip will stay just south of MSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 0Z NAM and 0Z GFS with some big differences in low track. NAM snow for northern MN and GFS snow for southern MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 0z gfs hammers central/sw MN...1.50-1.75 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 7, 2013 Author Share Posted April 7, 2013 0Z NAM and 0Z GFS with some big differences in low track. NAM snow for northern MN and GFS snow for southern MN. Rain at the start of the event for MSP seems certain, as cold air starts to work in I wonder if the surface low will be further se than even the GFS is portraying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 7, 2013 Author Share Posted April 7, 2013 This system according to the GFS and GGEM for the last two days have been very impressive for MN. At one time the GEM and Euro seemed to suffer from convective feedback with huge QPF's well south of MN, I figured that suppressed solution was wrong, and once they corrected themselves it wound bring heavy snow to the area south of MSP, and this idea has been portrayed well by the Euro. But the GFS and the Gem have been very consistent in clocking central and western MN. The Euro has been horrible up here this winter season, and it was especially bad with the last major snowstorm that impacted SE MN, as well as the Indy storm the last week of March. The GGEM had both of those systems right. I rode the GGEM heavily in OV thread with the Indy storm as that area was in the baroclinic zone, and ever since than I have thought, if Indy why not MSP a couple of weeks later? I'm almost ready to throw the ECMWF under the bus.......but I will wait till the 04/07 12z runs of the model suites before I pull the trigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 This system according to the GFS and GGEM for the last two days have been very impressive for MN. At one time the GEM and Euro seemed to suffer from convective feedback with huge QPF's well south of MN, I figured that suppressed solution was wrong, and once they corrected themselves it wound bring heavy snow to the area south of MSP, and this idea has been portrayed well by the Euro. But the GFS and the Gem have been very consistent in clocking central and western MN. The Euro has been horrible up here this winter season, and it was especially bad with the last major snowstorm that impacted SE MN, as well as the Indy storm the last week of March. The GGEM had both of those systems right. I rode the GGEM heavily in OV thread with the Indy storm as that area was in the baroclinic zone, and ever since than I have thought, if Indy why not MSP a couple of weeks later? I'm almost ready to throw the ECMWF under the bus.......but I will wait till the 04/07 12z runs of the model suites before I pull the trigger. I agree on the euro being horrible for around here but some praise it no matter what. I see the 0z ukie is further nw at 72 & 96 than the GFS. I wouldn't be surprised if the snow event ends up further nw but se of the NAM than whats progged now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 I agree on the euro being horrible for around here but some praise it no matter what. I see the 0z ukie is further nw at 72 & 96 than the GFS. I wouldn't be surprised if the snow event ends up further nw but se of the NAM than whats progged now. I could see that happening as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 7, 2013 Author Share Posted April 7, 2013 The winter that never ends.....LMAO.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 7, 2013 Author Share Posted April 7, 2013 I could see that happening as well. mnweather where are you again? does your 68.4" include what you saw today??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 mnweather where are you again? does your 68.4" include what you saw today??? Yes it includes today. Im near Duluth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 7, 2013 Author Share Posted April 7, 2013 Yes it includes today. Im near Duluth. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Amazing that mnweather has still had less snow then Madison this season! I think Madison ended up about 71". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 0z ggem is basically the same as it's 12z run but has lighter snows further nw this run...still an outlier on being too fast moving the system through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 The 0z Euro gives parts of SD 24" of snow the next 8 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 335 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 ...SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON WINTER STORM TO HIT WESTERN NEBRASKA... .HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AND EXTEND EAST TO NEAR A VALENTINE THROUGH OGALLALA LINE LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FREEZIGN RAIN AND SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW TUESDAY MORNING FOR COUNTIES TO THE EAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER WEST OF A VALENTINE THROUGH OSHKOSH LINE AND 5 TO 10 INCHES EAST OF THIS LINE. IN ADDITION...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL LIKELY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW WHICH COULD LEAD TO VERY LOW VISIBILITIES...ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-GARDEN-GRANT-DEUEL-WESTERN CHERRY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GORDON...RUSHVILLE...VALENTINE... OSHKOSH...HYANNIS...CHAPPELL...BIG SPRINGS...CODY...MERRIMAN... KILGORE 335 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2013 /235 PM MDT SUN APR 7 2013/ A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING LATE MONDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 12 INCHES INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS NEAR 12 INCHES OR LOCALLY HIGHER FOR SHERIDAN AND NORTHWEST CHERRY COUNTY. * WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY TO IMPACT TRAVEL WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE POSSIBLE AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 ↑ ↑ ↑ That is a million dollar snow for them parts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 GFS finally with the rest of the model guidance reguarding the track/strength of the storm...i assume MPX will issue some type of headline for their w cwa with the afternoon package today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 GFS finally with the rest of the model guidance reguarding the track/strength of the storm...i assume MPX will issue some type of headline for their w cwa with the afternoon package today. Waiting for the Euro and GEM to come in, but records could certainly fall if the stars continue to line up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 MPX pulling the trigger of issuing a wsw including MSP URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN339 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013...A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM TO AFFECT WEST AND CENTRAL MINNESOTAFROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLEACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM EARLYTUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION ISEXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW LATE TONIGHTACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THEDAY TUESDAY...REACHING EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY EVENING.WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS FAR WESTCENTRAL MINNESOTA NEAR ALEXANDRIA AND MORRIS...LOCATIONS TO THESOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELY ENDURE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...ANDFREEZING RAIN ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AS COLDER AIR WORKSINTO THE AREA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THEMIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...WITH ALL AREAS SEEINGACCUMULATING SNOW ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.MNZ041>043-047>050-054>058-064-065-073-090445-/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.A.0008.130409T0800Z-130411T1800Z/DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-BENTON-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...LITTLE FALLS...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...REDWOOD FALLS339 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CDT TUESDAY THROUGHTHURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CDT TUESDAYTHROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING: PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.* MAIN IMPACT: SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF SIX INCHES OR GREATER.* OTHER IMPACTS: MIXED PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 In Brookings, SD where we're at the cutoff line.. some models say 6 inches, other suggest more, all models say around .25 an inch of freezing rain tonight. I'd love to see a good ice or snow event, hopefully not a bunch of sleet. I could get on the interstate and drive north 50 miles if I wanted to definitely see all snow, close to a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/321382056368144384/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 that's certainly the most promising model I've seen so far. GFS has been favoring this area more than NAM which has it north. NOAA is siding with NAM right now. Any movement of the storm track will affect snowfall in my county. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=SDsnowfall 32.2 degrees and falling... good ice storms don't start to happen until about 29 but making good progress for it only being 8PM CST. Should be down to 29 within the next couple of hours looking at nearby temps. So either lots of snow, a good ice storm, or both... gotta be optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 MPX upgraded to a warning from St. Cloud - Redwood Falls on west. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN910 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013...A LATE SEASON WINTER STORM TO AFFECT WEST AND CENTRALMINNESOTA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY....A SINGLE STORM SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WINTRYPRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOWFALLACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTCENTRAL MINNESOTA FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY. SLEETOR RAIN WILL ALSO MIX IN AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND EASTWARD LATETUESDAY...REACHING EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILESNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS FAR WESTCENTRAL MINNESOTA...LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL LIKELYENDURE A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET... AND RAIN. EVENTUALLY NEARLY ALL OFCENTRAL MINNESOTA CAN EXPECT A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY WEDNESDAYNIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SLUSHY SNOW ACROSSEAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THE TIME THE SNOW DIMINISHES ONTHURSDAY.MNZ047>049-054>058-064-065-073-091015-/O.UPG.KMPX.WS.A.0008.130409T0800Z-130411T1800Z//O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0007.130409T0900Z-130411T1800Z/STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-REDWOOD-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRIS...GLENWOOD...ST. CLOUD...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...LITCHFIELD...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...REDWOOD FALLS910 PM CDT MON APR 8 2013...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM CDTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUEDA WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4AM TUESDAY TO 1 PM CDT THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOLONGER IN EFFECT.* TIMING: SNOW AND SLEET WILL BEGIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.* MAIN IMPACT: TWO DAY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Sorry I haven't been active folks. Glad to see the thread though. I have had my own winter storm issues here. Anyways, what a mess of a storm. Definitely one of the more impressive arctic fronts of all winter. I don't see it in the above warning, but the possibility exists for some substantial freezing rain across portions of central MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 0z NAM giving 3.00+ total qpf in parts of SD into w MN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 0z NAM giving 3.00+ total qpf in parts of SD into w MN. Obviously that is probably overdone overall, but there will be quite a bit of precip with this system. I can guarantee this...the models will struggle with this storm for two reasons. The multiple low amplitude wave ejections interacting with the front...and the substantial moist convection across the warm sector will undoubtedly play a role in how the eventual precipitation distribution plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Obviously that is probably overdone overall, but there will be quite a bit of precip with this system. I can guarantee this...the models will struggle with this storm for two reasons. The multiple low amplitude wave ejections interacting with the front...and the substantial moist convection across the warm sector will undoubtedly play a role in how the eventual precipitation distribution plays out. Yeah, overdone for sure...i'm hoping for atleast 5" for snow to break 50" for the season or near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dissident Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 we're in the 14 inch area now.. nice.. hope it pans out.. just started sleeting, it's actually just 22.5 degrees here atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 snowing good here...the main snow event arrives tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1035 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013 ...TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ...DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0940 AM SLEET HOWARD 44.01N 97.52W 04/09/2013 M2.2 INCH MINER SD COOP OBSERVER 1045 AM ICE STORM 6 NE AVON 43.07N 97.98W 04/09/2013 E0.7 INCH BON HOMME SD PUBLIC TREES, POWER LINES AND OTHER EXPOSED SURFACES ARE ICE COVERED. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD 1035 AM CDT TUE APR 09 2013 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1034 AM HEAVY SNOW 3 NNE PIERRE 44.41N 100.30W 04/09/2013 E6.0 INCH HUGHES SD COCORAHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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