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Contest: Total Number Of 90º+ Temperatures...May Thru Sep


Chicago WX

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I hope so, but it's nervous time right now.  It was 89F for the 4pm observation, and I'm almost certain the site would not allow this day to go by without an intrahour 90F.

 

? ASOS auto detects the temperature at observing sites unless it is broken which is extremely rare so there is never fudging of numbers like you seem to be implying.

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The intra-hour talk on this board always makes me laugh. Why is it so important to folks that a high temperature occur at roughly 53 minutes past the hour? It's just nonsense. Whether a high occurs at 36 minutes past the hour or 53, it's still a valid high temp. Temperatures are constantly fluxing all day, with multiple mini peaks and valleys through the day. Whether a peak or valley occurs at ~53 minutes past the hour is moot.

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I hope so, but it's nervous time right now.  It was 89F for the 4pm observation, and I'm almost certain the site would not allow this day to go by without an intrahour 90F.

 

89° was the high I see. Next week though I would expect at least 2, 90s added to our tallies.

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89° was the high I see. Next week though I would expect at least 2, 90s added to our tallies.

 

Although they're in 3-6 hour increments, I see the 12z GFS, based on COD, keeps the big time heat away from the Great Lakes.  Just inland, looks like plenty of 90s but near the shore, if shortwaves stay close by or we can get an onshore flow, we may be able to keep things to just the mid to upper 80s.  I would think one or two days we'll hit 90 though.

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Although they're in 3-6 hour increments, I see the 12z GFS, based on COD, keeps the big time heat away from the Great Lakes. Just inland, looks like plenty of 90s but near the shore, if shortwaves stay close by or we can get an onshore flow, we may be able to keep things to just the mid to upper 80s. I would think one or two days we'll hit 90 though.

If only you had a clue.

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If only you had a clue.

 

You can guarantee the GFS is wrong?  Good luck with that.  This last warm spell was mitigated, no 90F readings.  There was a similar ridge earlier this summer that looked like it would keep all the MCS activity well north and it ended up a stormy week for Milwaukee and Chicago, so even your warm :weenie:  can't guarantee consistent 90F highs next week (although it should still be mid 80s or better every day).

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  • 3 weeks later...

Through Aug 31st...

 

Chicago IL (ORD): 10 days (14)
Moline IL (MLI): 13 days (20)
Springfield IL (SPI): 20 days (23)
Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 5 days (13)
Indianapolis IN (IND): 11 days (15)
Des Moines IA (DSM): 29 days (18)
Sioux City IA (SUX): 23 days (20)
Louisville KY (SDF): 29 days (37)
Paducah KY (PAH): 26 days (42)
Alpena MI (APN): 7 days (5)
Detroit MI (DTW): 5 days (10)
Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 7 days (8)
Marquette MI (MQT): 3 days (3)
Duluth MN (DLH): 6 days (2)

Minneapolis MN (MSP): 14 days (11)
Kansas City MO (MCI): 25 days (32)
Springfield MO (SGF): 27 days (35)
St. Louis MO (STL): 40 days (38)
Cleveland OH (CLE): 6 days (9)
Columbus OH (CMH): 14 days (15)
Green Bay WI (GRB): 5 days (3)
La Crosse WI (LSE): 21 days (13)
Milwaukee WI (MKE): 9 days (7)

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Did you notice how STL as tiebreaker went from under to over on the last two days of the month with 100+ readings? 

 

Looks to me like about half the present "unders" could go over, SGF, PAH, FWA and DTW have the lowest chances from a combination of Sept climatology and obs+fcst data already available. SDF also looks doubtful, also I would guess ORD not much chance, some of the others might crawl up to exact. None of those five stations mentioned have picked up one day yet in September despite a whole bunch of 87 to 89 highs for the southern stations. I notice that I have some chance of hitting my outrageous CMH exact stab in the dark, if they have one more day. GRR looks like a possible "exact" candidate but I have them under. Wonder if anyone will score an exact? The odds of being right on an exact must be about one in a thousand since you'd figure maybe one in thirty to be exact and one in thirty to pick exact. MQT is on exact and up there, record highs are soon below 90, however, there's a slight chance of getting one more day there.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Yes, the next week looks to stay in the 70s, and October and beyond renders 90 pretty much impossible.

 

A freak 90 wouldn't count for the purpose of the contest anyway, since it is for May - September. Hopefully, Chicago WX will make his reappearance on October 1st to wrap this thing up and get ready for winter.

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The longterm average for 90F+ days per year at Detroit is 12. Looking back to 2000, the 14-year average has been near that normal (12.7 avg since 2000) but it has been an awfully up and down rollercoaster.

 

90F+ days at DTW since 2000

2000- 1

2001- 14

2002- 24

2003- 4

2004- 3

2005- 20

2006- 11

2007- 14

2008- 7

2009- 4

2010- 17

2011- 23

2012- 30

2013- 7

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  • 2 weeks later...

Final standings:

 

cyclone77 takes it all.

 

12 of the 24 sites had an above average amount of 90+ days, with 2 sites at normal. Myself, Geos and OHweather were the ony three to get "Exact" calls correct, all being at MQT. Also of note regarding tiebreaker #4...3 of the 5 times Hoosier talked about or posted a NAM/RAP map was during cool temp disco.

 

m838.jpg

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Congratulations to Cyclone. This was a tough contest due to most sites being close to average.

 

Thanks for posting the results, Joe, although I miss Tim, a very quality and prolific poster.

 

As I posted earlier, those WI sites bit me in the butt. I took the under on all and they torched all summer, especially DLL. I feel like I sucked since I tied Roger, but maybe I didn't do so bad since I also tied Joe. lol Just joking Roger, but you and I haven't had much success in this subforum's contests.

 

 

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