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Contest: Total Number Of 90º+ Temperatures...May Thru Sep

Chicago WX

By Chicago WX,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

Another close one today.... DTW sitting at 88 right now, all surrounding PWSs are sitting at 85-87. The T-storms should drop the temp like a rock, no way does it recover back about 85 after that blows through. This will put Sunday as the next threat to the streak.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

Another close one today.... DTW sitting at 88 right now, all surrounding PWSs are sitting at 85-87. The T-storms should drop the temp like a rock, no way does it recover back about 85 after that blows through. This will put Sunday as the next threat to the streak.

After seeing some unprecedented July sunshine lol, this morning had that feel of a HOT day ahead. It was a race between the heat/humidity and cloudcover and approaching cold front. the cold won. the temp rose from 83 at 11am, to 86 at noon, to 88 at 1pm, then to 83 at 2pm, and 74 at 3pm. The dewpoint dropped from 75 at 2pm to 62 at 3pm...by now it was clear 90F was once again not in the cards.

 

With no 90F almost a guarentee through at least the 13th...2013 is certainly moving up the ranks for latest first 90F day on record (since 1887). Even more impressive is that most of those are a LONG time ago...in fact only 3 times (1951, 1960, 1979) in the last 95 years have we gone as late into the summer as we will be in 2013.

1907 – no occurrence - (0 days)

1915 – no occurrence - (0 days)

1912 – August 31 ----- (4 days) 

1979 – August 2 ------ (1 day)

1917 – July 29 ------- (5 days)

1960 – July 22 ------- (5 days)

1918 – July 20 ------- (15 days)

1904 – July 17 ------- (3 days)

1905 – July 17 ------- (3 days)

1951 – July 16 ------- (7 days)

2013 - ??

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted

This will be the 11th latest as of Monday, it will probably end the streak on the 15th of July. This is the latest (first) 90's on record since 1979.

 

If we can hold it off until Wednesday, it could tie for the 7th latest. Its going to be a nail biter.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

How about 1916 in Detroit, one or two days then a whole bunch later? Toronto at this point had its first 90+ day on the 7th and went on to record a total of 21.

And it came after 1915, Detroits coldest summer on record. Perhaps people were lulled in a sense of WOW another cool summer...than BAM.

 

After hitting the first 90F of the 1916 on July 11th, Detroit spent the rest of July in hot, muggy weather, the coolest day being 85F and racking up 11 days in the 90s from the 11th-30th (hottest being 98F on the 30th). July finished at 77.9F which at that time was the hottest July on record (and nearly 100 years later has moved to 5th hottest July on record). August racked up another 9 days of 90F+, the worst heatwave being Aug 19-22.'

 

So 20 of the 21 days of 90F+ in 1916 came from July 11th - August 22nd. (Detroit eeked out one last 90F on Sept 7th).

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted

This will be the 11th latest as of Monday, it will probably end the streak on the 15th of July. This is the latest (first) 90's on record since 1979.

 

If we can hold it off until Wednesday, it could tie for the 7th latest. Its going to be a nail biter.

I didn't include 1874 (when official records began) through 1886 because I didn't have access to all the complete data....DTX did a blurb about the absence of a 90F thus far and said only 3 times on record, 1882, 1907, and 1915...did it not hit 90F. So we can add 1882 to the have-not list, and Im pretty sure all the other years (even the cool summer of 1875) already had a 90F by this point.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Totals through July 21...May-Sep totals in ( ). Those that took the majority as over are looking very good, with more than two months to go.


 


Chicago IL (ORD): 6 days (14 days)


Moline IL (MLI): 8 days (20 days)


Springfield IL (SPI): 15 days (23 days)


Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 5 days (13 days)


Indianapolis IN (IND): 4 days (15 days)


Des Moines IA (DSM): 16 days  (18 days)


Sioux City IA (SUX): 14 days (20 days)


Louisville KY (SDF): 16 days (37 days)


Paducah KY (PAH): 16 days (42 days)


Alpena MI (APN): 4 days (5 days)


Detroit MI (DTW): 5 days (10 days)


Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 6 days  (8 days)


Marquette MI (MQT): 2 days (3 days)


Duluth MN (DLH): 3 days (2 days)


Minneapolis MN (MSP): 9 days (11 days)


Kansas City MO (MCI): 15 days (32 days)


Springfield MO (SGF): 17 days (35 days)


St. Louis MO (STL): 24 days (38 days)


Cleveland OH (CLE): 6 days (9 days)


Columbus OH (CMH): 11 days (15 days)


Green Bay WI (GRB): 5 days (3 days)


La Crosse WI (LSE): 12 days (13 days)


Milwaukee WI (MKE): 5 days (7 days)

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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I still like under for DTW. It is funny that they had the normal listed at 10 instead of 12 because for decades the average has consistently been 12, actually one of the most constant "averages" in Detroit's period of record. In fact I skimmed some yearly climate summaries for Detroit on ncdc and couldn't find an average of 10. Regardless I still say under 10. DTWs 5 were all in a row and though I highly doubt that make the rest of summer with no more, it is possible, and how funny would it be for all the 90F days to come consecutively in one humid heatwave in mid-July.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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How do we score exact when it isn't correct, and how do we score over/under when the outcome is exact? Just wrong anyway, or half a point?

 

Well, exact was an option. So it's in the loss column if a site hits it and you didn't pick it. 

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Jonger

Jonger

Posted
Posted
I still like under for DTW. It is funny that they had the normal listed at 10 instead of 12 because for decades the average has consistently been 12, actually one of the most constant "averages" in Detroit's period of record. In fact I skimmed some yearly climate summaries for Detroit on ncdc and couldn't find an average of 10. Regardless I still say under 10. DTWs 5 were all in a row and though I highly doubt that make the rest of summer with no more, it is possible, and how funny would it be for all the 90F days to come consecutively in one humid heatwave in mid-July.

I bet we end up with 4 more, probably in early September unfortunately. Why? No reason other than balance... Every guess made on this forum was no more skillful that a dart thrown with a blindfold on.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Totals updated through July. Two locations have already exceeded their normal amount of 90º+ days, DLH and GRB...and LSE is at normal. May-Sep normal total in ( ).


 


Chicago IL (ORD): 6 days (14)


Moline IL (MLI): 8 days (20)


Springfield IL (SPI): 15 days (23)


Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 5 days (13)


Indianapolis IN (IND): 5 days (15)


Des Moines IA (DSM): 17 days (18)


Sioux City IA (SUX): 15 days (20)


Louisville KY (SDF): 18 days (37)


Paducah KY (PAH): 18 days (42)


Alpena MI (APN): 4 days (5)


Detroit MI (DTW): 5 days (10)


Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 6 days (8) 


Marquette MI (MQT): 2 days (3)


Duluth MN (DLH): 3 days (2)


Minneapolis MN (MSP): 7 days (11)


Kansas City MO (MCI): 16 days (32)


Springfield MO (SGF): 18 days (35)


St. Louis MO (STL): 26 days (38)


Cleveland OH (CLE): 6 days (9)


Columbus OH (CMH): 11 days (15)


Green Bay WI (GRB): 5 days (3)


La Crosse WI (LSE): 13 days (13)


Milwaukee WI (MKE): 5 days (7)

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

Posted
Posted

Will be adding to quite a few city tallies next week.  

 

Sure, very borderline around our cities though.  Decent chance Milwaukee tags one 90F day, but no more than one or two I think.  If we dodge 90s this week, I'm feeling pretty good about not finishing over our average 7 days per year.

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Geos

Geos

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Sure, very borderline around our cities though.  Decent chance Milwaukee tags one 90F day, but no more than one or two I think.  If we dodge 90s this week, I'm feeling pretty good about not finishing over our average 7 days per year.

 

Yeah definitely looking more border line. East of here I don't think anyone reaches 90° this week. Wednesday looks to be the only decent shot of seeing 90°. 

Overall I'm going to predicted 2 more 90° days this season - here.

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Minnesota Meso

Minnesota Meso

Posted
Posted

MSP was at 90° today, this marks the 10th day this year of  90°+,  our average is 13, looks to me like we will be on the plus side by seasons end, if your counting Sept. we may be well above.  On a side note.............

it's 11:20pm and we are seeing 81/71 as of 10:53 CDT.....YUK!!!!!!!

 

Edit:

 

I think this is summer time only temps that have been posted, but I like to look at annual ave temps as that gives us a better idea of how warm our warm season really is.  From 1980 thru 2010 are average annual temps of 90° or better is at 13.53 which would round up to 14.  The official records are kept by the Minnesota Climatology Working Group.

 

http://climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/twin_cities.htm

 

here is our average annual 90+ days

 

http://climate.umn.edu/text/historical/mspmaxtge90.txt

 

so the average of 13 that I stated above is incorrect.

 

 

 

 

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Trent

Trent

Posted
Posted

 

Totals updated through July. Two locations have already exceeded their normal amount of 90º+ days, DLH and GRB...and LSE is at normal. May-Sep normal total in ( ).

 

Chicago IL (ORD): 6 days (14)

Moline IL (MLI): 8 days (20)

Springfield IL (SPI): 15 days (23)

Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 5 days (13)

Indianapolis IN (IND): 5 days (15)

Des Moines IA (DSM): 17 days (18)

Sioux City IA (SUX): 15 days (20)

Louisville KY (SDF): 18 days (37)

Paducah KY (PAH): 18 days (42)

Alpena MI (APN): 4 days (5)

Detroit MI (DTW): 5 days (10)

Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 6 days (8) 

Marquette MI (MQT): 2 days (3)

Duluth MN (DLH): 3 days (2)

Minneapolis MN (MSP): 7 days (11)

Kansas City MO (MCI): 16 days (32)

Springfield MO (SGF): 18 days (35)

St. Louis MO (STL): 26 days (38)

Cleveland OH (CLE): 6 days (9)

Columbus OH (CMH): 11 days (15)

Green Bay WI (GRB): 5 days (3)

La Crosse WI (LSE): 13 days (13)

Milwaukee WI (MKE): 5 days (7)

 

Looks like La Crosse just went over, Des Moines just went over, and Alpena tied. There probably won't be that many more additions to this list for a while. 

 

MQT, MKE, MSP, SUX, and GRR are the next most vulnerable for tying or going over. But outside of those, the rest will probably be a stretch.

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