Contest: Total Number Of 90º+ Temperatures...May Thru Sep

[michsnowfreak]

Tracking DTW's first 90F.....

 

Looked up the latest 1st 90F+ days on record. 31 times since 1887 the first 90F+ day came on July 1st or later, with (as mentioned above) 2 years seeing no 90F+ days at all. 2013 looks guarenteed to rank at least 23rd for latest first 90F day...but probably higher.

 

Here is a list of the 31 times it did not hit 90F until July 1st or later, ranked in order of latest on record....

 

I also included in ( ) the total # of 90F days that summer would total. A few of the years turned out to have plentiful # of 90F days despite the late start, but an overwhelming majority showed a late start meant fewer than the normal number (12) of 90F+ days in total.

 

1907 – no occurrence - (0 days)

1915 – no occurrence - (0 days)

1912 – August 31 ----- (4 days) 

1979 – August 2 ------ (1 day)

1917 – July 29 ------- (5 days)

1960 – July 22 ------- (5 days)

1918 – July 20 ------- (15 days)

1904 – July 17 ------- (3 days)

1905 – July 17 ------- (3 days)

1951 – July 16 ------- (7 days)

1932 – July 13 ------- (8 days)

1973 – July 13 ------- (9 days)

1893 – July 12 ------- (M days)

1909 – July 12 ------- (3 days)

1916 – July 11 ------- (21 days)

1972 – July 11 ------- (6 days)

1930 – July 9 -------- (15 days)

1889 – July 8 -------- (3 days)

1926 – July 8 -------- (5 days)

1985 – July 8 -------- (3 days)

1928 – July 7 -------- (7 days)

1982 – July 6 -------- (3 days)

1900 – July 4 -------- (12 days)

1902 – July 4 -------- (3 days)

1935 – July 4 -------- (11 days)

1993 – July 4 -------- (12 days)

2010 – July 4 -------- (17 days)

1897 – July 3 -------- (7 days)

1974 – July 3 -------- (10 days)

1903 – July 1 -------- (5 days)

1955 – July 1 -------- (31 days)

 

So breaking it down into percentages...as we track the first 90F of the year at DTW....the historical probability (1887-2012) of not hitting 90F...

By July 1st....24.6%

By July 5th....17.4%

By July 10th..12.7%

By July 15th....7.9%

By July 20th....5.5%

By July 25th....4.0%

No 90s all yr....1.6%

 

If we look at the 1981-2010 normals....the probability of not hitting 90F...

By July 1st......13.3%

By July 5th........6.7%

By July 10th......0.0%

So....according to the latest 30-year normals set...if we fail to hit 90F by July 9th, we did something that we supposedly had a 0% probability of doing Gotta love those short data sets.

[DAFF]

That's some fun filled data there Michsnowfreak. I'm thinking on how long the snow cam lasted and how it correlates to the slow to hit 90's... Time will tell.

[stormtrackertf]

We've been so close to hitting 90°F a few times this year but no cigar. I'm sure we'll see at least one 90°F before the year is over, though, especially considering even 2004 and 2009 in all of their coolness had some pockets of legitimate heat from time to time.

[michsnowfreak]

We've been so close to hitting 90°F a few times this year but no cigar. I'm sure we'll see at least one 90°F before the year is over, though, especially considering even 2004 and 2009 in all of their coolness had some pockets of legitimate heat from time to time.

Oh for sure....if we don't we are in almost unheard of territory. Like I said, its happened twice (1907 and 1915), and thats a century ago, and even those years had many days in the 80s. Its just the way the weather works. DTW has hit 89F twice this year (once in May, once in June), but its nothing new. Most years have lots of 87-89F days.

[Jonger]

Hopefully we never see 90 this year.

[OSNW3]

90's are done for June, so we'll call this the total through the end of June. If anyone really overachieves today or tomorrow, I'll make the necessary corrections. Normal number of 90+ days for May 1-June 30 in ( ).

 

 

Thanks for keeping track of the data. It's an exciting pace...

[Chicago WX]

No problem.

 

BTW, under on tiebreaker #1 was a winner:

 

#1: 90º+ days in June for Moline IL (MLI)...over/under/exact 4 days (Actual: 2 days)

[Geos]

Here at least, it doesn't look like any 90s in the 7 day forecast at all. If it starts getting wet again, then will start having the wet soil feedback on temps.

[Roger Smith]

I am a little more confident about my guesses now with this much of the season used up, but almost everyone is probably still in the hunt. I'm riding the concept of a suppressed heat regime affecting mainly the southern half of the forecast region (more so than climatology which of course runs that way every year). So far this seems to be the case but with the western ridge throwing high 90s as far north as Alberta and Saskatchewan recently, perilous times ahead for my concept.

 

Any update on tiebreaker #4 ?? I have no estimate of how that's going.

[Jonger]

Detroit looks to make it to the 3rd week of July with no 90's. 

 

9th through 6th latest date for no 90's looks very solid.

[Jonger]

Oh for sure....if we don't we are in almost unheard of territory. Like I said, its happened twice (1907 and 1915), and thats a century ago, and even those years had many days in the 80s. Its just the way the weather works. DTW has hit 89F twice this year (once in May, once in June), but its nothing new. Most years have lots of 87-89F days.

 

There is way too much UHI to make it possible now days. A high temp in 1900 of 85 would almost certainly hit 90 in the city with identical air masses.

[SpartyOn]

There is way too much UHI to make it possible now days. A high temp in 1900 of 85 would almost certainly hit 90 in the city with identical air masses.

Downriver is a community with a heavy amount of industrial factories and steel mills. The air is heavy with pollution and the UHI is big player.

[michsnowfreak]

Downriver is a community with a heavy amount of industrial factories and steel mills. The air is heavy with pollution and the UHI is big player.

The air and water is so much cleaner downriver than it was in the '70s it isn't funny. Downtown wyandotte has a rolling golf course, trees, and deer where steel factories once stood along the river. Yet in the 1970s DTW was a radiational cooling magnet....now we have UHI.

[michsnowfreak]

There appears to be a minimal shot at 90 either Tue or wed at DTW...otherwise as Jon saod we should make it to the 3rd week of July without our first 90!

[Jonger]

Whooo... Looks like the rain avoided disaster. DTW hit 89 today and looks like mega rain should put them back below danger territory, today was the best shot at 90+ of the next 10 days.

[Jonger]

That's the 3rd or 4th time all year that DTW maxed out at 89.1!

 

No CIGAR!

[Powerball]

That's the 3rd or 4th time all year that DTW maxed out at 89.1!

 

No CIGAR!

 

This summer can go to the fiery pits below the earth as far as I'm concerned

[michsnowfreak]

That's the 3rd or 4th time all year that DTW maxed out at 89.1!

No CIGAR!

It was only the 3rd 89F. One in may, one in june, one in july. Which actually would be far less noticeable if we weren't still waiting for that elusive first 90. I cant stress enough that numerous days in the 87-89 range in addition to the climo 12 days of 90F are normal. Now...if DTW finishes the season with some obscene number like 16 days at 89F and 2 at 90F+...then powerball has a beef.

[Powerball]

It was only the 3rd 89F. One in may, one in june, one in july. Which actually would be far less noticeable if we weren't still waiting for that elusive first 90\\.

 

And the fact of course that Detroit's one of the only few remaining sites that haven't hit it.

[Jonger]

It was only the 3rd 89F. One in may, one in june, one in july. Which actually would be far less noticeable if we weren't still waiting for that elusive first 90\.

 

And the fact of course that Detroit's one of the only few remaining sites that haven't hit it.

What's so fun about 90 degrees? 85 is fine for water sports and yard work.

[Stebo]

What's so fun about 90 degrees? 85 is fine for water sports and yard work.

 

It is just a benchmark, it would be like anyone asking you what is so fun about 6" of snow. Honestly it is pointless to slam anyone's personal preference unless you expect yours to be slammed as well. Which is why your celebration of DTW not making it to 90 doesn't make much sense.

[michsnowfreak]

It is just a benchmark, it would be like anyone asking you what is so fun about 6" of snow. Honestly it is pointless to slam anyone's personal preference unless you expect yours to be slammed as well. Which is why your celebration of DTW not making it to 90 doesn't make much sense.

Weve all been guilty of doing that. Ive seen snowfalls where someone goes crazy because they only got 5.9" of snow instead of 6.1" or whatever. It literally makes no difference to how the storm felt or looks but if you are into stats it's irritating. If DTW managed to sneak an intra-hour 90 it would have felt no hotter than the 89 did, but I can see how it's irritating. Me personally? I recall several of what i felt were cheap 90F days the last few years (I considered them cheap when they had a 2F intra-hour bump when everyone but DTW and YIP maxed out at 88 or below)...so I am enjoying the very rare 90F-less year we are having and rooting against the 90s. like you said, you like what you like.

Btw...both DTW and DET maxed at 89 today, which means the wait for a 90F continues at both Detroit sites.

[Stebo]

Weve all been guilty of doing that. Ive seen snowfalls where someone goes crazy because they only got 5.9" of snow instead of 6.1" or whatever. It literally makes no difference to how the storm felt or looks but if you are into stats it's irritating. If DTW managed to sneak an intra-hour 90 it would have felt no hotter than the 89 did, but I can see how it's irritating. Me personally? I recall several of what i felt were cheap 90F days the last few years (I considered them cheap when they had a 2F intra-hour bump when everyone but DTW and YIP maxed out at 88 or below)...so I am enjoying the very rare 90F-less year we are having and rooting against the 90s. like you said, you like what you like.

Btw...both DTW and DET maxed at 89 today, which means the wait for a 90F continues at both Detroit sites.

 

There is no such thing as cheap highs or cheap lows, just like there is no such thing as cheap snowfalls. All are counted the same.

[Hoosier]

Just missed hitting 90 at LAF too. At least we missed the 80 dewpoint by several degrees...89/79 would really grind my gears.

[IWXwx]

There is no such thing as cheap highs or cheap lows, just like there is no such thing as cheap snowfalls. All are counted the same.

 

I don't have a problem with calling a high temp cheap. If it just hits 90 for one hour or even intra-hour, yes it's still counted, but it's not the same as blowing by 90 to hit, say, 93 or 94. Nor is it the same as remaining over 90 for multiple hours.

 

Personally, I just like the stats, whether it's consecutive 90° days or consecutive lack of 90° days.

[Stebo]

I don't have a problem with calling a high temp cheap. If it just hits 90 for one hour or even intra-hour, yes it's still counted, but it's not the same as blowing by 90 to hit, say, 93 or 94. Nor is it the same as remaining over 90 for multiple hours.

 

Personally, I just like the stats, whether it's consecutive 90° days or consecutive lack of 90° days.

 

I can understand your point, at the end of the year however we just go by how many 90 degree days or how many 6"+ snowfalls. Sure we could quantify them more but most don't.

[Trent]

Just wait until we switch to the metric system. All of this even number 90F nonsense will be replaced with even number 30C nonsense.

It's all psychology. What's so interesting to a society that uses the metric system about a temperature that's 32.2C? What's so interesting to a society that uses imperial units about a temperature of 86F?

[michsnowfreak]

There is no such thing as cheap highs or cheap lows, just like there is no such thing as cheap snowfalls. All are counted the same.

I merely said thats my opinion on how I root for what I root for. And in the last few summers the high temps at DTW were higher than much of the regions temps an inordinate number of times...when several years ago that didn't necessarily used to be the case....or as said, when your max hourly temp is 87 or 88 and the high hits 90F intra-hour. I'm not at all saying the temp wasnt 90F or anything like that in those instances (DTW of all places is a quality-controlled first order station, so accuracy is high) Im just saying I personally feel those are kinda cheap. Just like powerball is irked that we CAN'T hit 90F this year, which is a sort of ironic twist. There are many who think its cheap on a winter day when, say, DTW will show 2" of snow because a band parked over the airport while most of SE MI saw 0.5" or less. Calling something cheap, stat-padding, griping about 12:01am high temps, etc etc...are all just personal gripes a weather or especially weather stat geek has. But the bottom line is, the high is the high and the low is the low, there is no accounting for how long or short that temperature was experienced, or what time it was achieved...just like the snow at the airport is the snow at the airport, even if 90% of the area saw notably more or notably less that day, or if 3" was achieved in 2 hours of blinding snow or 20 hours of very light steady snow. Look at slushfest 2013..that pesky L affected us for 3 calendar days and dropped 7.1" of snow at DTW....so TECHNICALLY thats the biggest "storm" of the past winter. Never mind that its a total spanning over 48-hours and with a temp never below 33F, not to mention 5-1 ratios and a peak depth at 5"...much less than that on the pavement. Your going to tell me the 6.2" on December 26th which was powder, drifty, piled up on all streets, and lasted much less than 24 hours...was second fiddle to that slushfest? Not in any aspect of the imagination...but the stats are the stats

[michsnowfreak]

Just wait until we switch to the metric system. All of this even number 90F nonsense will be replaced with even number 30C nonsense.

It's all psychology. What's so interesting to a society that uses the metric system about a temperature that's 32.2C? What's so interesting to a society that uses imperial units about a temperature of 86F?

I hope we dont ever go metric. I like our current setup....I don't want the NWS to go the way of Environment Canada anyway

[Trent]

And if you really want to talk about cheap temperatures ... every temperature is rounded but yet the monthlies have decimals. The thread title would be more accurate if it said days above 89.5 degrees.

After all what's the difference between an air temperature of 89.49 and 89.50? It's one degree. What's the difference between an air temperature of 89.50 and 90.49? Absolutely nothing from a stats point of view.