wisconsinwx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Total number of 90º+ days through May 31. Chicago IL (ORD): 1 Moline IL (MLI): 1 Springfield IL (SPI): 0 Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 0 Indianapolis IN (IND): 0 Des Moines IA (DSM): 1 Sioux City IA (SUX): 2 Louisville KY (SDF): 0 Paducah KY (PAH): 0 Alpena MI (APN): 0 Detroit MI (DTW): 0 Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 0 Marquette MI (MQT): 0 Duluth MN (DLH): 0 Minneapolis MN (MSP): 1 Kansas City MO (MCI): 1 Springfield MO (SGF): 0 St. Louis MO (STL): 3 Cleveland OH (CLE): 0 Columbus OH (CMH): 0 Green Bay WI (GRB): 0 La Crosse WI (LSE): 1 Milwaukee WI (MKE): 0 Way too early to be confident about anything, but those who predicted all to be over have to be seriously rethinking themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Way too early to be confident about anything, but those who predicted all to be over have to be seriously rethinking themselves. After May? Most places don't average even 1 90 degree date by this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 After May? Most places don't average even 1 90 degree date by this point. I guess June thru early September isn't enough for this guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 After May? Most places don't average even 1 90 degree date by this point. I wasn't quoting his post to respond to it specifically, moreso to keep the conversation going. Sorry for the confusion, I was more alluding to the trends looking naso good for those who expect most of the Midwest cities to record above their normal 90 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 I wasn't quoting his post to respond to it specifically, moreso to keep the conversation going. Sorry for the confusion, I was more alluding to the trends looking naso good for those who expect most of the Midwest cities to record above their normal 90 degree days. Once again, it is the 3rd of June, lets start talking about trends of below normal 90 degree days when the summer is closer to be half over instead of not having started yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 lets not be so confident or say cocky of avg or above avg amount 90's occurring this summer either before summer has even started, road goes both ways and the pattern as of now doesn't scream region wide torch but, I'm sure we'll see enough heat but nothing sustaining like the past few summers. I'm with Deedler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 lets not be so confident or say cocky of avg or above avg amount 90's occurring this summer either before summer has even started, road goes both ways and the pattern as of now doesn't scream region wide torch but, I'm sure we'll see enough heat but nothing sustaining like the past few summers. I'm with Deedler. I am not saying I am confident in the sense that I am 100% sure it will be all above average, note I did side that way but I am not thinking it will be grossly above average. That being said the problem I have is saying definitatively that it those who picked over are in trouble when it is June 3rd. Honestly it is asinine to even say something along that lines and it just shows the lack of climatological knowledge, as I stated most places on the list don't even average a single 90 degree day in May so there is really little basis to say it is above or below average to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Chicago IL (ORD): 14 days, under Moline IL (MLI): 20 days, under Springfield IL (SPI): 23 days, under Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 13 days, under Indianapolis IN (IND): 15 days, under Des Moines IA (DSM): 18 days, under Sioux City IA (SUX): 20 days, under Louisville KY (SDF): 37 days, under Paducah KY (PAH): 42 days, under Alpena MI (APN): 5 days, under Detroit MI (DTW): 10 days, under Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 8 days, under Marquette MI (MQT): 3 days, exact Duluth MN (DLH): 2 days, over Minneapolis MN (MSP): 11 days, under Kansas City MO (MCI): 32 days, under Springfield MO (SGF): 35 days, under St. Louis MO (STL): 38 days, under Cleveland OH (CLE): 9 days, exact Columbus OH (CMH): 15 days, under Green Bay WI (GRB): 3 days, over La Crosse WI (LSE): 13 days, under Milwaukee WI (MKE): 7 days, exact Tiebreaker questions# 1: 90º+ days in June for Moline IL (MLI)...under #2: 90º+ days in July for Kansas City (MCI)...under #3: 100º+ days in August for St. Louis MO (STL)...exact 1 day #4: number of times Hoosier talks about or posts a NAM (includes 4km NAM) or RAP temperature map in June-August... under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Official entry form Chicago IL (ORD): 14 days Over Moline IL (MLI): 20 days Over Springfield IL (SPI): 23 days Over Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 13 days Over Indianapolis IN (IND): 15 days Over Des Moines IA (DSM): 18 days Over Sioux City IA (SUX): 20 days Over Louisville KY (SDF): 37 days Over Paducah KY (PAH): 42 days Over Alpena MI (APN): 5 days Over Detroit MI (DTW): 10 days Over Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 8 days Over Marquette MI (MQT): 3 days Over Duluth MN (DLH): 2 days Over Minneapolis MN (MSP): 11 days Over Kansas City MO (MCI): 32 days Over Springfield MO (SGF): 35 days Over St. Louis MO (STL): 38 days Over Cleveland OH (CLE): 9 days Over Columbus OH (CMH): 15 days Over Green Bay WI (GRB): 3 days Over La Crosse WI (LSE): 13 days Over Milwaukee WI (MKE): 7 days Over Tiebreaker questions #1: 90º+ days in June for Moline IL (MLI)...over/under/exact 4 days Over #2: 90º+ days in July for Kansas City (MCI)...over/under/exact 12 days Over #3: 100º+ days in August for St. Louis MO (STL)...over/under/exact 1 day Over #4: number of times Hoosier talks about or posts a NAM (includes 4km NAM) or RAP temperature map in June-August...over/under/exact 50 times Way Over Sorry to anyone who wants a cool summer lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 I am not saying I am confident in the sense that I am 100% sure it will be all above average, note I did side that way but I am not thinking it will be grossly above average. That being said the problem I have is saying definitatively that it those who picked over are in trouble when it is June 3rd. Honestly it is asinine to even say something along that lines and it just shows the lack of climatological knowledge, as I stated most places on the list don't even average a single 90 degree day in May so there is really little basis to say it is above or below average to this point.Agree with the sentiment....but we see the same thing with snow in winter. People speaking of snow futility by mid December when there's 4 months of snow potential to go.That said I believe 90F days will be below normal, but probably not in 2009 territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Agree with the sentiment....but we see the same thing with snow in winter. People speaking of snow futility by mid December when there's 4 months of snow potential to go. That said I believe 90F days will be below normal, but probably not in 2009 territory. It's not the sentiment that's the problem, but the fact that he based his entire post on nothing more than what happened the past 3 years with the drought and that sentiment. It's like the folks who expected 2011-2012 to be a snowy winter simply because of how snowy the past 4 winters were and because they made their predictions before winter officially arrived. And yes, I'm sure he and a few others will have some douchebag reply to this post. Whatever gets them through the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 It's not the sentiment that's the problem, but the fact that he based his entire post on nothing more than what happened the past 3 years with the drought and that sentiment. It's like the folks who expected 2011-2012 to be a snowy winter simply because of how snowy the past 4 winters were and because they made their predictions before winter officially arrived. And yes, I'm sure he and a few others will have some douchebag reply to this post. Whatever gets them through the day... Lol, nah I will wait until End of September to bump this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 A couple heat waves in late July and August could easily bump the reporting sites to normal. Im not an expert or claim to be so ill guess. Id pick just about normal 90 numbers for all the sites. Ill also toss in a +/- of 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Looks like Milwaukee, Chicago and Detroit are all going to go through June without posting a 90F high yet this year, the odds in a typical year are pretty slim for that, though like last year this is far from a typical year weather-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 ORD has had two 90+ days this year, second one happened today. But even if they didn't have one at this point, it's not that rare. Indianapolis doesn't have one yet this year, and will escape June without one. That's a bit more rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Looks like Milwaukee, Chicago and Detroit are all going to go through June without posting a 90F high yet this year, the odds in a typical year are pretty slim for that, though like last year this is far from a typical year weather-wise. just a quick glance going back to 1998 there was only 4 Junes in Milwaukee without a 90 high temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Missed a 90° by 1° today. It's not going to happen tomorrow, Saturday, or Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Close to 60% of June's in MKE produce a 90. July on the other hand is a little over 85%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 ORD has had two 90+ days this year, second one happened today. But even if they didn't have one at this point, it's not that rare. Indianapolis doesn't have one yet this year, and will escape June without one. That's a bit more rare. My mistake, I thought they just missed it today, and I admittedly only looked at June, but I see they had one on May 14th. It's still probably a 1 in 10 chance for both Milwaukee and Detroit to go without a 90F day through June (and not out of the question the search will continue through the first half of July given it will start seasonable or below). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 The 90 degree thing and heat is kind of funny. For several Great Lakes cities, if the high every day was 86 and the low 68 from June through August, it'd be the hottest summer on record. This month will go down as having below average 90 degree days. But was it below normal tempwise? Most places will end up normal or a degree or two above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Detroit will make it to July 1st (and beyond) without yet hitting 90F for the year. How rare is it to not have a 90F+ day in June?Since 1887, which is 126 years, 36 of them did not hit 90F, which is a 28.6% chance. When you account for the occasional 90F days in May, the overall historical odds of not yet seeing a 90F+ day by June 30th are approximately 25%. However, if you want to use the 30-year "normals" mantra that is what they deem is the average these days, then the probability plummets to just a 10% shot of not seeing a 90F day through June 30th. (I personally am not a fan of such short data sets for norms, but if your going to use them, then it makes it even more impressive that DTW hasnt hit 90F). Also...since 1887 here are the low water marks for 90F days at Detroit (I do not have access to 1874-1886 temps so I didnt include those years in the rankings). Twice Detroit has gone a year without a 90F. Top 20 LEAST 90F+ days in a year at Detroit, MI 0 days - 1907 (max 87F) 0 days - 1915 (max 89F) 1 day -- 1979 1 day -- 2000 2 days - 1992 3 days - 1889 3 days - 1902 3 days - 1904 3 days - 1905 3 days - 1909 3 days - 1982 3 days - 1985 3 days - 1989 3 days - 2004 4 days - 1896 4 days - 1912 4 days - 1958 4 days - 1975 4 days - 2003 4 days - 2009 Note: the 21st century is really making its mark in the top 20 most AND least 90F+ days list. Just 13 years into the century, and 4 years already made the LEAST list (2000, 2003, 2004, 2009) and 3 made the MOST list (2002, 2011, 2012). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 The 90 degree thing and heat is kind of funny. For several Great Lakes cities, if the high every day was 86 and the low 68 from June through August, it'd be the hottest summer on record. This month will go down as having below average 90 degree days. But was it below normal tempwise? Most places will end up normal or a degree or two above. True...but 90F is the benchmark for heat just like 6" is the benchmark for a snowstorm, and a lot of people look more at the extremes than the averages. Side note, based on projected temps the next 2 days, DTW looks to finish June exactly normal, with the avg high being -1F and the avg low being +1F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 90's are done for June, so we'll call this the total through the end of June. If anyone really overachieves today or tomorrow, I'll make the necessary corrections. Normal number of 90+ days for May 1-June 30 in ( ). Chicago IL (ORD): 2 days (3.5) Moline IL (MLI): 3 days (4.7) Springfield IL (SPI): 8 days (5.6) Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 1 day (3.8) Indianapolis IN (IND): 0 days (2.8) Des Moines IA (DSM): 6 days (3.6) Sioux City IA (SUX): 5 days (6.3) Louisville KY (SDF): 6 days (7.9) Paducah KY (PAH): 9 days (9.8) Alpena MI (APN): 0 days (1.3) Detroit MI (DTW): 0 days (2.8) Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 0 days (2.3) Marquette MI (MQT): 0 days (0.8) Duluth MN (DLH): 0 days (0.3) Minneapolis MN (MSP): 2 days (2.7) Kansas City MO (MCI): 7 days (5.2) Springfield MO (SGF): 8 days (4.1) St. Louis MO (STL): 14 days (9.6) Cleveland OH (CLE): 2 days (2.3) Columbus OH (CMH): 4 days (3.5) Green Bay WI (GRB): 0 days (1.1) La Crosse WI (LSE): 2 days (3.6) Milwaukee WI (MKE): 0 days (1.7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 True...but 90F is the benchmark for heat just like 6" is the benchmark for a snowstorm, and a lot of people look more at the extremes than the averages. Side note, based on projected temps the next 2 days, DTW looks to finish June exactly normal, with the avg high being -1F and the avg low being +1F. 88/70 is heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 With the impressive heat building to the east it is just a matter of time ... As for the 90 ++ drought as of late I'm not surprised for everything has been late to develop this year. By the end of it I'm with Spartyon with over on all counts. We haven't broken 90 to date but on the humidex level it has been very sticky out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 90's are done for June, so we'll call this the total through the end of June. If anyone really overachieves today or tomorrow, I'll make the necessary corrections. Normal number of 90+ days for May 1-June 30 in ( ). Chicago IL (ORD): 2 days (3.5) Moline IL (MLI): 3 days (4.7) Springfield IL (SPI): 8 days (5.6) Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 1 day (3.8) Indianapolis IN (IND): 0 days (2.8) Des Moines IA (DSM): 6 days (3.6) Sioux City IA (SUX): 5 days (6.3) Louisville KY (SDF): 6 days (7.9) Paducah KY (PAH): 9 days (9.8) Alpena MI (APN): 0 days (1.3) Detroit MI (DTW): 0 days (2.8) Grand Rapids MI (GRR): 0 days (2.3) Marquette MI (MQT): 0 days (0.8) Duluth MN (DLH): 0 days (0.3) Minneapolis MN (MSP): 2 days (2.7) Kansas City MO (MCI): 7 days (5.2) Springfield MO (SGF): 8 days (4.1) St. Louis MO (STL): 14 days (9.6) Cleveland OH (CLE): 2 days (2.3) Columbus OH (CMH): 4 days (3.5) Green Bay WI (GRB): 0 days (1.1) La Crosse WI (LSE): 2 days (3.6) Milwaukee WI (MKE): 0 days (1.7) I am quite surprised by how many places are above the pace, I honestly thought all of them would be below pace. Also those that are below pace are not really that far behind their average. Should be interesting to see how the rest of the summer plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 I am quite surprised by how many places are above the pace, I honestly thought all of them would be blow pace. Also those that are below pace are not really that far behind their average. Should be interesting to see how the rest of the summer plays out. 5 above pace right now, with 1 keeping pace. The other 17 are running behind. But it was May and June. July of course is the peak for the highest number of 90+ days, so those that are "over heavy" need hope for hot times. First week of the month won't be adding much to the totals, but we'll see where it goes after... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 5 above pace right now, with 1 keeping pace. The other 17 are running behind. But it was May and June. July of course is the peak for the highest number of 90+ days, so those that are "over heavy" need hope for hot times. First week of the month won't be adding much to the totals, but we'll see where it goes after... Yeah usually the last 3 weeks of July and the first 2 weeks of August would be the wheelhouse for 90 degree temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 88/70 is heat. Its uncomfortable, absolutely. I hate it as a matter of fact. But the bottom line is it has not hit 90F and thats the threshold everyone looks at when looking at summer temps. Gotta love how anything under 6" of snow is stat padding in winter yet summer temps in the 80s is heat It will be interesting to see when DTW finally gets a 90F. We are in rare territory as it is, and theres really no 90F in sight. Then again....the last 2 years make it easy to forget that average for an entire year is only 12 days of 90F+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Yeah usually the last 3 weeks of July and the first 2 weeks of August would be the wheelhouse for 90 degree temperatures. July is the big month for sure. Actually...June and August are about dead even, with a negligible edge going to June. Per NOWdata...the avg at DTW for 90F+ days May- 0.4 Jun- 3.1 Jul- 4.9 Aug- 2.9 Sep- 0.8 Year- 12.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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