Mrs.J Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 closed....i'll let mattie G in late...nobody else though Sorry did not see this, guess I am not part of the cool crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Booooo. Guess I won't win that tropical vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Sorry did not see this, guess I am not part of the cool crowd. I was only a little late! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 00z GFS likes the 82-84 range looks like for Wednesday... almost looks downslopeish in its temp forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 Mon: 74 Tue: 79 Wed: 84 Tiebreaker: 53 Mon: 76 Tues: 78 Wed: 75 Tie: 62 Sorry did not see this, guess I am not part of the cool crowd. Booooo. Guess I won't win that tropical vacation there is no crowd that can enter a contest 48 hrs after it closes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 90 @ DCA or Bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 90 @ DCA or Bust. Wouldnt that be one of the earliest 90s at DCA if we were to hit it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Wouldnt that be one of the earliest 90s at DCA if we were to hit it? I think the earliest 90+ at DCA is either the 5th or 6th of April, so no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 I think the earliest 90+ at DCA is either the 5th or 6th of April, so no? March 1907 had multiple 90s. We had 90s on Apr 6/7 in 2010. By this point, most of the record highs are around 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 MON: 70 TUES: 73 WED: 59 Low:53 Way tricky on this one. Euro has Wed high happening @ 2am or so. Low confidence in any of my #'s. Mon: 73 Tue: 77 Wed: 74 Tie: 53 congrats on getting the tiebreaker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 I might be 20 off on Wed There is legitimately a chance that one of the entries in this contest will be off by 35 degrees on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 There is legitimately a chance that one of the entries in this contest will be off by 35 degrees on Wed. Tenman may be off by closer to 40 degrees on Wed. Matt has almost certainly won this contest. He has the highest total of anyone (he might be tied with one other but he would win the tiebreak). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 there is no crowd that can enter a contest 48 hrs after it closes I did not see a closing time until just this morning under the Thread title... I was expecting to find a time closure in the actual post and did not see one. No worries, I will just see how well I do by myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Zwyts and I will tie for the win at 231 but he'll have the tiebreak. I think for him and I we should have a 1 on 1 where we reforecast the days and see who wins (he still wins this contest but something secondary would be cool) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 I did not see a closing time until just this morning under the Thread title... I was expecting to find a time closure in the actual post and did not see one. No worries, I will just see how well I do by myself. yeah..my bad...I should have put it in the top post....Anyway...I think you might do well...Though I dont think it is an easy forecast even from close in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 Zwyts and I will tie for the win at 231 but he'll have the tiebreak. I think for him and I we should have a 1 on 1 where we reforecast the days and see who wins (he still wins this contest but something secondary would be cool) we'll do a "re-buy" on Tuesday for Wednesday/Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 we'll do a "re-buy" on Tuesday for Wednesday/Thursday Alrighty, but lets have a little preliminary inside guess right now for laughs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 Alrighty, but lets have a little preliminary inside guess right now for laughs? I'll wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 yeah..my bad...I should have put it in the top post....Anyway...I think you might do well...Though I dont think it is an easy forecast even from close in Yeah, one of the perils with subtitles is that they don't show in the mobile versions. I often forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Zwyts and I will tie for the win at 231 but he'll have the tiebreak. I think for him and I we should have a 1 on 1 where we reforecast the days and see who wins (he still wins this contest but something secondary would be cool) Just wanted to point out that the highest overall scores do not necesarily have to have the lowest departures...or even two scores with the same total (231). For example, let's say person A forecasts temps of 75, 76, and 80. Person B forecasts temps of 66, 75, and 90. Both have total forecasted degrees of 231. Let's say the verified temperatures came in at 79, 85, and 87. Person A's total departure is 20 degrees. Person B's total departure is 26 degrees. Person A would win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 lol...80 is a lock today for much of DC metro...DCA may get south winded...but we can always get the run of the mill 4:37 inter-hour spike that is 6 degrees higher than any hourly ob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 Just wanted to point out that the highest overall scores do not necesarily have to have the lowest departures...or even two scores with the same total (231). For example, let's say person A forecasts temps of 75, 76, and 80. Person B forecasts temps of 66, 75, and 90. Both have total forecasted degrees of 231. Let's say the verified temperatures came in at 79, 85, and 87. Person A's total departure is 20 degrees. Person B's total departure is 26 degrees. Person A would win. yeah...I'm doing total departure which is standard in these contests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 yeah...I'm doing total departure which is standard in these contests Total departure as in the total departure of each of the days? Or total departure as in sum of all forecasted days vs. sum of all verified days? I was under the impression it was the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 Total departure as in the total departure of each of the days? Or total departure as in sum of all forecasted days vs. sum of all verified days? I was under the impression it was the former. yes (guess/actual) 70/83 65/85 90/77 would be a 46...lowest number wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 the typical missing hourly obs, showing up again on the 1st day we "care" about them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 the typical missing hourly obs, showing up again on the 1st day we "care" about them DCA: 67 IAD: 69 BWI: 71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 DCA: 67 IAD: 69 BWI: 71 yeah...finally showed up...hopefully teh 11:52 ob shows up before 12:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 MON: 70 TUES: 73 WED: 59 Low:53 Way tricky on this one. Euro has Wed high happening @ 2am or so. Low confidence in any of my #'s. congrats!..you just need the temp not to budge this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 yeah..my bad...I should have put it in the top post....Anyway...I think you might do well...Though I dont think it is an easy forecast even from close in Thanks I will read better next time. I am no pro by any means, I mostly enjoy doing these to learn from. Wishing all of the rest of you the best with your guesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Just wanted to point out that the highest overall scores do not necesarily have to have the lowest departures...or even two scores with the same total (231). For example, let's say person A forecasts temps of 75, 76, and 80. Person B forecasts temps of 66, 75, and 90. Both have total forecasted degrees of 231. Let's say the verified temperatures came in at 79, 85, and 87. Person A's total departure is 20 degrees. Person B's total departure is 26 degrees. Person A would win. You are correct. However, the assumption being made this time is that everyone is going to bust low, daily. That would mean highest total guess will be the one that is lowest total departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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