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2013 GLOV Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago WX

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decent cluster inbound down here....cool temp'ed outflow a taste of things to come....has not come through here yet...headin' out

 

Just had a couple good gusts over 40 mph. Cooling off outside! New storms NW of Madison.

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Prolly first storm that shoulda been warned this year for me....multiple gusts over threshold .... strictly from a IMBY point of view and not polygon-wide perspective

 

someone commented on best howls since GHD....I can see why....no thunder or rain distortion on the front side....just the winds....backside included the thunder and rain with minimal winds...

 

overall not tooooo shabby...most gusts in the 30 to 40 range...but certain there were multiple gusts over 55...

 

numerous smaller branches down here and I hear the firetrucks all blazing....lack of lightning strikes and rain leads me to believe it is wind related issues

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN

216 PM EDT TUE JUL 23 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA...

* UNTIL 245 PM EDT

* AT 213 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF BLOOMINGTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

SMITHVILLE AND HARRODSBURG.

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No secret that it's been a slow tornado season here and nationally so I decided to do some digging. This is still preliminary but so far this year there have been only 9 tornadoes in Indiana. Prior to this year, there have been 22 years since 1950 that had less than 10 tornadoes by the start of August. 22/22 years went on to finish below average in terms of tornadoes. The greatest yearly total out of any of these years was 16 in 1959.

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Definitely the potential for some decent CAPE in southern WI, Iowa Sunday.

The forecast change is coming as a surprise. 

 

NAM_221_2013080918_F54_CAPE_SURFACE.png

 

Some elevated shear.

 

NAM_221_2013080918_F54_SHRM_700_MB.png

 

MKX disco:

 

 

WITH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER JET ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE
SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON BUT WEAKENS DURING THE
DAY. MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTH DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS IN THE STRONGEST
850 MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. 850 MB
DEW POINTS INCREASE TO 12 CELSIUS AND SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASE
TO THE MID 60S SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH.
MOST MODELS NOW HAVE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...BEGINNING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AND EXTENDING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO A SMALL 35 KNOT 850 MB WIN MAX PUSHES INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY NOON SUNDAY. THEREFORE WILL EXPAND AND
RAISE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

40 KNOT ZERO TO 6 KM SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT...WITH THE CWASP
SEVERE PROBABILITY RAISING TO 70 PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
IS MODEST...AROUND 500 J/KG ON THE NAM...BUT THIS MAY BE
UNDERESTIMATED DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION GENERATED ON THE MODELS.

 

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Severe threat in WI looks minimal for Sunday.

 

 

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
UPPER FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC WITH EMBEDDED VORT MAXES.
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION EVOLVES. ECMWF/GFS KEYING ON PRECIP BAND
SETTING UP ACROSS CWA WHILE NAM IS A BIT MORE BROAD AND EXTENDS
PRECIP INTO EC/NE WI. MODELS TRENDING A BIT MORE UNSTABLE WITH A
LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AS WELL. PROGS SHOWING ML CAPES
PUSHING 1K J/KG AND LI/S NOW -4 TO -6 ACRS WRN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER LIKELY TO BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER RIGHT FROM THE
OUTSET SO BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY MAY BE HARD TO COME BY. 0-6KM
SHEAR SHOWING 40 KNOTS. 200-300 MILLIBAR JET POSITION SUGGESTS SOME
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT ACTION WILL AID IN VERTICAL MOTION ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. BEST OVERLAP OF IN STAB AND FORCING
SETTING UP BETTER IN THE WESTERN CAW. SPC NOT OUTLOOKING SRN WI AND
CIPS ANALOGS NOT EXCITED EITHER. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP BUT SVR
POTENTIAL LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA CLOSER TO BETTER WAA/MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY.

 

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The KDTW METAR reported 0.65" in 7 minutes with that same cell that went over Ann Arbor.  :flood:

 

 

KDTW 130042Z 14012G28KT 100V180 3SM R04R/2000VP6000FT +TSRA SCT009 BKN025 OVC040CB 20/17 A2987 RMK AO2 PK WND 22043/0030 WSHFT 0022 TWR VIS 4 TSB00RAB24 FRQ LTGICCGCC N-S-OHD TS N-S-OHD MOV E P0078

 

KDTW 130035Z 18021G43KT 1 3/4SM R04R/2000VP6000FT +TSRA FEW009 SCT025 OVC040CB 20/17 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 22043/0030 TWR VIS 4 TSB00RAB24 FRQ LTGICCGCC ALQDS-OHD TS ALQDS-OHD MOV E P0013

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