Stebo Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 If the models are correct, we might see a ramp up in threats toward the end of next week. Considerable amounts of instability will move into the area with a front slowly dropping Southeast, I could envision some flooding issues as well considering the slow nature of the front and the high PWATs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Something to watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 SPC didn't outline any areas yet but they mention the strong/extreme instability showing up in the extended. GFS has multiple days with SBCAPE north of 5000 J/kg in the corn belt, and while shear may be questionable at times, that is a nice pool of instability to work with. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013 VALID 191200Z - 241200Z ..DISCUSSION ..NRN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST DESPITE A LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN ECMWF/GFS/CMC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST. LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE SLOW WITH EWD PROGRESSION AND LARGELY INDICATES A DAMPENING OF THE TROUGH BY LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE...A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH A RIDGE EMANATING N/NEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. THE MOST CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST INVOF N-CNTRL MT ON D4/WED. HERE...PRECEDING DAYS OF LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL ENRICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...YIELDING MODERATE BUOYANCY IN THE LEE OF THE NRN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...ORIENTATION OF THE TROUGH SUGGESTS MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MERIDIONAL AND WITH A SHARP W-E GRADIENT IN STRENGTH. A RELATIVELY NARROW OVERLAP OF FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE IS EVIDENT WITH THIS AREA PROBABLY WARRANTING LOW-END SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES IN THE UPCOMING D3 OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD EJECT EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY D5/THU...BUT MAY BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OR EFFECTIVELY PUSH EWD ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML...YIELDING POTENTIALLY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD LAG THE FRONT...IT MAY REMAIN ADEQUATE ALONG IT TO YIELD A MULTI-DAY SEVERE THREAT IN THE NRN PLAINS AND PERHAPS EWD TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY NEXT WEEKEND. ..GRAMS.. 06/16/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 Hopefully something can tap that projected instability. Extreme CAPE days tend to be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 DTX LOCALLY, CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DOMINANCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND, WHEN THE PATTERN WILL POTENTIALLY BECOME RIPE WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL GIVEN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN'S FAVORABLE LOCATION ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP & ALONG THE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THEREFORE, NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO INHERITED CHANCE POPS SAT-MON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Something to watch... Just wondering what is indicated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Just wondering what is indicated? 300mb jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 ring of fire.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 This NW flow event next week looks to have some good potential on the GFS with a 70-80 kt H5 jet streak on the 18z run and bloated SCP, among other indices. The pattern appears highly favorable for robust MCS development as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Wouldn't mind our second derecho of the year here at all, hopefully one with a little umph this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Slight risk added for tomorrow like I was thinking may happen. Looks like it could be an early show here so not too confident on severe prospects locally but models build decent instability by mid/late morning so there may be a shot at something if the timing doesn't speed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Apparently there might have been a TOG with the warned cell SE of Eau Claire not to long ago. Cell along the Mississippi River near Winona looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 DLL- Severe t-storm warning for La Crosse. Slow moving line... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGWIC063-222315-/O.NEW.KARX.SV.W.0094.130722T2214Z-130722T2315Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI514 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... LA CROSSE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...* UNTIL 615 PM CDT* AT 511 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NORTH BEND TO HOUSTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL TO 2 INCHES...AND BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... HOLMEN AND BRICE PRAIRIE AROUND 520 PM CDT. LA CROSSE AIRPORT AND FRENCH ISLAND AROUND 530 PM CDT. ONALASKA AROUND 535 PM CDT. LA CROSSE AROUND 540 PM CDT. WEST SALEM AROUND 550 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 This may get interesting this evening. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 524 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN TREMPEALEAU COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN... * UNTIL 600 PM CDT * AT 520 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BLUFF SIDING IN SOUTHWEST TREMPEALEAU...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... TREMPEALEAU AROUND 530 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Nice little environment with localized sfc backing INVOF the low/pressure falls in W WI, probably enhancing low level shear near the clusters/supercells around ARX at this time, 3 km EHI up to 5-7 around them, MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg. Watch that cell WNW of Merrillan, mid level rotation is increasing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 That cell north of Black River Falls is looking really nice. Cells around LaCrosse are kind of a cluster at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 Storms starting to form ahead of the cold front near MSN. Edit: Nice line heading towards Hawkeye and probably Cyclone later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Smallest new watch ever issued? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 not too shabby.... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL701 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..0658 PM TSTM WND GST W INDEPENDENCE 42.47N 91.89W07/22/2013 M72 MPH BUCHANAN IA TRAINED SPOTTER WEST SIDE OF INDEPENDENCE0700 PM TSTM WND GST 1 WNW INDEPENDENCE 42.47N 91.90W07/22/2013 E70 MPH BUCHANAN IA TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Smallest new watch ever issued? Lol. They will be posting a new one for sure further east and south with this line! Pretty good cell south of La Crosse again. More cells firing further north into WI. Going to be a long night of radar watching I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Severe t-storm warning just west of the MS River in Iowa. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL839 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013IAC031-045-061-097-105-139-163-ILC085-230200-/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0111.000000T0000Z-130723T0200Z/SCOTT IA-MUSCATINE IA-JACKSON IA-DUBUQUE IA-CEDAR IA-CLINTON IA-JONES IA-JO DAVIESS IL-839 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRALJO DAVIESS...SOUTHEASTERN JONES...WESTERN CLINTON...CEDAR...SOUTHEASTERN DUBUQUE...JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE ANDNORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...AT 835 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINEEXTENDING FROM SPRINGBROOK TO BENNETT...AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT30 MPH.HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...DURANT...BELLEVUE...CALAMUS...SPRINGBROOK...DELMAR...WELTON...GRANDMOUND...SPRAGUEVILLE...HANOVER...GREEN ISLAND...SUNBURY...NEWLIBERTY...BIG ROCK...SHERMAN PARK...BLANDING...DIXON...STOCKTON...PLAINVIEW...NORTH HANOVER AND WHITTON. Pretty strong storm heading ESE out of Dane County, WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 decent severe warn box hoisted for western portions of LOT for gust up to 70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Nice light show for the last couple hours. Thought things were going to be a miss to the south but this will be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Yep extensive warning box. Might catch the northern extent of the line. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGILC007-037-089-103-111-141-201-230430-/O.NEW.KLOT.SV.W.0100.130723T0340Z-130723T0430Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1040 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BOONE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... MCHENRY COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... EASTERN OGLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... EASTERN WINNEBAGO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 1130 PM CDT* AT 1035 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF CLINTON TO ROCHELLE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES... ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... POPLAR GROVE AND KIRKLAND AROUND 1045 PM CDT. MALTA AND KINGSTON AROUND 1050 PM CDT. HARVARD AND GENOA AROUND 1055 PM CDT. SYCAMORE AND MARENGO AROUND 1100 PM CDT. MAPLE PARK AND HEBRON AROUND 1105 PM CDT. WOODSTOCK AND WONDER LAKE AROUND 1110 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE UNION...BURLINGTON...PINGREEGROVE AND CRYSTAL LAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Got it! Amazing gust front just roared through. Talking easy 60. It was followed by a second and third rip about a minute each apart. Still no precip but garbage cans blowing down the street and crawlers to the immediate west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Got it! Amazing gust front just roared through. Talking easy 60. It was followed by a second and third rip about a minute each apart. Still no precip but garbage cans blowing down the street and crawlers to the immediate west. Wow! Can see the outflow boundary nicely racing across eastern McHenry County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 That was sweet. It was a roar we haven't heard since GHD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Gust front already half way across Lake County. Should be crossing US 45 shortly. Couple cells managed to fire ahead of the decaying line. Roll cloud now passing overhead. Winds are picking up. Edit: Had some gusts up to 35 mph I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Gust front already half way across Lake County. Should be crossing US 45 shortly. Couple cells managed to fire ahead of the decaying line. Roll cloud now passing overhead. Winds are picking up. Edit: Had some gusts up to 35 mph I'd say. decent cluster inbound down here....cool temp'ed outflow a taste of things to come....has not come through here yet...headin' out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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