Hoosier Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 GFS/Euro agree on a belt of 75-85 kt 500 mb winds running through the Upper Midwest/Lakes during the early week. Good stuff for 2nd week of June standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Yeah, how can you not love these patterns. MCS after MCS running ESE along the front. gfsUS_500_spd_132.gif gfsUS_sfc_30mbdewp_132.gif GFS/Euro agree on a belt of 75-85 kt 500 mb winds running through the Upper Midwest/Lakes during the early week. Good stuff for 2nd week of June standards. Yeah that is some pretty impressive stuff there, certainly would give credence to a upper end potential if instability can be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 GFS/Euro agree on a belt of 75-85 kt 500 mb winds running through the Upper Midwest/Lakes during the early week. Good stuff for 2nd week of June standards. Am I the only one that immediately thought this when I saw the 12z GFS' H5 pattern at 132 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 best pattern DVN already throwing around the D word.... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL314 PM CDT WED JUN 5 2013 MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND FAST ZONAL FLOW AND STALLED FRONT JUST TO THE SOUTH SUGGESTS NEAR NORMAL WEATHER. HIGHS 76-82F AND LOW POPS OF MAINLY PM SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAT BEGINS TO BUILD IN SOUTH PLAINS WITH INCREASING RISK OF STRONG MCS NEAR OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST FOR LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS BY WEDNESDAY AT THE LATEST AND PROBABLY INTO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH RISING RISK OF BOW ECHOES AND POSSIBLY EVEN DERECHO CONVECTIVE EVENT/S/ NEARBY. NICHOLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 DVN already throwing around the D word.... Certainly too soon to say that though the wind fields if they were to hold can't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Certainly too soon to say that though the wind fields if they were to hold can't be ignored. yeah... a possibility, but variables to be ironed out within' a day or 2 of possible event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 Am I the only one that immediately thought this when I saw the 12z GFS' H5 pattern at 132 hrs. No, you're not the only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 No, you're not the only one. Good, just making sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 5, 2013 Share Posted June 5, 2013 The comparisons between the 12z GFS and even the 12z Euro to a degree and 5 June 2010 are absolutely uncanny, but something important to remember about that day is just how mesoscale-driven it was and how mesoscale factors are really what made that outbreak so prolific across nrn/cntl IL and nrn/cntl IN. We knew the parameters would be in place for strong tornadoes that night, but it was a toss-up as to how discrete the cells were going to be. So even if that patterns holds going into Monday (doubtful), we wouldn't really know until initiation time what we'd be dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 6, 2013 Share Posted June 6, 2013 00z GFS is pretty amazing in the med/long term. Big difference compared to the May setups is that capping issues look more pronounced in the Plains. Too early to go off the deep end with speculating but I get the sense that there could be a high end event of some kind within the next week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coreyback Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 DVN already throwing around the D word.... Same long-term forecaster in their afternoon AFD today, but he's sticking by it: PATTERN INCREASING FAVORABLE FOR A VIGOROUS SUMMERTIME "RING OF FIRE" REGIME WITH MCS SYSTEMS OF GOOD BOWING SEGMENTS AND EVEN DERECHO RISK NEAR OR OVER AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS WITH RISK OF HEAVY RAINS. NICHOLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Would anyone mind explaining the meaning behind the 'ring of fire'? I'm unfamiliar with the term. Scratch that Google does it again. For others wondering: RING OF FIRE / CUT-OFF HIGH*High pressure is common across the Southeast US in the summer time. The basic pattern of the Ring of Fire is show below:This high pressure cell, which is an extension of the Bermuda-Azores high, can become fixed over the same general region for several days, especially if the jet stream is weak and with a lack of Canadian cool fronts. The air is most stable at the center of the high pressure. At the edges of the high pressure, the cap will be weak enough to allow afternoon convection to occur. This afternoon convection makes a ring around the high pressure cell. The afternoon thunderstorms will also rotate in a clockwise manner around the high pressure cell. A common thunderstorm pattern in a Ring of Fire episode would be to have thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast and an arc of storms from the Great Plains into the Great Lake states.The Ring of Fire is originally a geology term which describes the occurrence of earthquakes and volcanoes as being on the edge of plate boundaries. In meteorology, the thunderstorms are synonymous with fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 7, 2013 Share Posted June 7, 2013 Chance for severe in Illinois on Sunday if we can get the instability some of the models are showing. 12z/18z NAM have a corridor of over 2000j/kg cape in the warm sector, while the GFS barely has 500j/kg. Instability hinges on how much leftover crap there is from the overnight stuff. Chances are there will be at least some, so a middle ground between the NAM/GFS is probably the best guess at this point. If instability ends up similar to the NAM then this could be a decent little setup over parts of Illinois. 18z 4kmNAM 21z sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Simulated radar on the 0z NAM hires isn't quite as impressive. But it looks like rain late in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Just wanted to add my 2cents. I've been looking forward to this weekend for days. I feel good about it. But I'm worried about instability. I'm waiting for tomorrow night, and sunday morning/afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 00z GFS is pretty amazing in the med/long term. Big difference compared to the May setups is that capping issues look more pronounced in the Plains. Too early to go off the deep end with speculating but I get the sense that there could be a high end event of some kind within the next week or so. From Mr Ryan's IND AFD this AM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A STRONGER WAVE ALOFT TRACKING WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. PLENTY OF SIGNS POINTING TO DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TO IMPACT THE REGION AS COMBINATION OF A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT AMONGST THE EXTENDED MODELS...BUT REMAIN COMFORTABLE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE ALOFT/SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...UPPER RIDGE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ONCE AGAIN TO END THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT A RETURN INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY WITH MID LEVEL HEIGHTS RISING ONCE AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 8, 2013 Share Posted June 8, 2013 Guess we know where WPC sets up the ring of fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 GRR also starting to bring up the D-word 12Z ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE SAME PAGE WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THEFORECAST. SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF LOWERMICHIGAN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH BEST CHANCE FOR RAINACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY. COULD BE CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF AN MCS OR PROGRESSIVEDERECHO FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAINWEDNESDAY THEN PROPAGATING EAST SOUTHEAST. THEN A SFC HIGH WITH FAIRAND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/40472-severe-threat-june-11-and-beyond/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 9, 2013 Share Posted June 9, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 290 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 205 PM CDT SUN JUN 9 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST INDIANA WESTERN KENTUCKY SOUTHEAST MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF CHAMPAIGN ILLINOIS TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && DISCUSSION...TSTMS FORMING ALONG LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS ATTM EXTENDING NNE FROM NEAR THE MO BOOTHEEL TO JUST E OF STL TO JUST W OF SPRINGFIELD IL EXPECTED INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP NNE INTO MORE STRONGLY-HEATED...MOISTENING ENVIRONMENT. MODERATE/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP SHEAR...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBE MOVING E AROUND BASE OF IA/MO UPR LOW...SUGGEST STORMS WILL EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE BANDS...WITH EMBEDDED LEWPS/BOWS POSING A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22030. ...CORFIDI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Tornado warned---Radar indicated-----Located in Southern Ky almost on Tn line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 335 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0300 PM TORNADO 5 SW FRANKLIN 36.68N 86.64W 06/10/2013 SIMPSON KY TRAINED SPOTTER TORNADO. ONE HOUSE DESTROYED. THIS STORM HAS PRODUCED EXTENSIVE DAMAGE ACROSS LOGAN AND SIMPSON COUNTIES IN KENTUCKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 251 PM CDT MON JUN 10 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 310 PM CDT * AT 249 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORGANTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MORGANTOWN...DUNBAR...LEETOWN...YOUNGTOWN...NEEDMORE AND WOODBURY. LAT...LON 3725 8684 3724 8661 3713 8662 3710 8664 3715 8687 TIME...MOT...LOC 1951Z 281DEG 20KT 3718 8677 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ RJS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Large tornado in KY. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=262735567199246 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Franklin KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 That guy better hurry! There's a tornado behind him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Pretty good rotation with the TOR warned storm near Greensburg, KY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Probably have another tornado imminent on that KY cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted June 10, 2013 Share Posted June 10, 2013 Mulitple rotations now in that TOR warned KY cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 If the models are correct, we might see a ramp up in threats toward the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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