Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,614
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

2013 GLOV Severe Weather Discussion


Chicago WX

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 234
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Apparently, according to WTHI on Twitter, a tornado has been reported near Carlisle. Of course this is unconfirmed and no warning with it. Sheriffnado perhaps?

And to follow up on this Trained Weather Spotter and Sheriff's office stated touchdown on Carlisle Road. Eh... take it as you will I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tor warning southeast of Indy.

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1141 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2013

INC031-100400-
/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130510T0400Z/
DECATUR IN-
1141 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2013

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL DECATUR COUNTY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 1138 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
         SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL
         OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.
         EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILFORD AND ADAMS.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Time to fantasize a bit since this spring season is so slow severe wise.  Friday's 12z GFS looks interesting for Mon. afternoon and evening May 20 for possible WF action in ne MO, se IA, and Central IL.  Mid to upper 60's dews, 1500-2000 CAPE, LI of -8 or -9, low LCL's.  Shear could be better, but at this junction this far out this is only a heads up.  Gotta look and hope for something.  Plus I like the fact that posters in the Central region are targeting this system for its potential in the Plains a day or two earlier.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wednesday could be a day to keep an eye on in terms of severe weather prospects.

 

The lack of moisture and surface convergence will be the main things going against it, but there's definitely some severe weather potential with that cold front/shortwave coming through during peak heating with the modest wind field and temps well into the 80s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's an interesting graphic floating around on FB...

 

MKX leads the pack in this region, closing in on almost 2 years since the last tor warning was issued.

 

390664_484942981578163_422183857_n.png

 

Haha, well I think we will get a tor warning this year in the CWA, if only because it is pretty uncommon to not have one in an entire year (in MKX's case, it's been since June 2011 I believe).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well this could make life interesting around these parts come next Saturday...

8NKMzro.gif

Nice to see good instability on the map. One thing we'll have to guard against is overreacting...setups are bound to look amazing considering how things have gone so far. :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice to see good instability on the map. One thing we'll have to guard against is overreacting...setups are bound to look amazing considering how things have gone so far. :lol:

 

There has been some consistency with the idea of a decent trough ejecting out with ample instability in place for a few days though right now it is best to stay conservative at this point. However it is nice to see the pattern breaking..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SPC day 4-8 outlook now hinting at things getting really active late next week.

 

   D

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013
  
   VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
  
   ...DISCUSSION...
   GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
   PERIOD -- WITH ONLY LOCAL/LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EVIDENT AS THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND
   A SECOND/MUCH WEAKER UPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVES
   SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
  
   MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL U.S. AS AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH -- MOVING ONSHORE DAY 5 /THU.
   5-16/ -- CROSSES THE WRN U.S. AND APPROACHES THE PLAINS.
   HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
   THIS TROUGH -- THE GFS BEING FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THE
   PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF EJECTS A MUCH
   SLOWER/WEAKER TROUGH.
  
   OVERALL...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD BE
   POSSIBLE INVOF THE LEE TROUGH DAY 7 /SAT. 5-18/...WITH PERHAPS
   GREATER THREAT -- PARTICULARLY PER THE GFS SOLUTION -- FOR DAY 8
   /SUN. 5-19/.  WHILE INDICATIONS ATTM ARE THAT OUTLOOK AREAS WILL
   LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS -- POSSIBLY FOR MULTIPLE
   CONSECUTIVE DAYS...DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
   PRECLUDES A CONFIDENT AREAL DELINEATION OF THREAT AREAS ATTM.
  
   ..GOSS.. 05/12/2013

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: the IL/IN/MI/Lakes threat on 05/19: The large Aleutian cyclone on the operational GFS causes a large Rex block developing over W Canada circa Day 6, thereby allowing a substantial inversion ahead of the frontal forcing on Day 7 and also allowing a substantial negative tilt to develop. Such a set-up would encourage substantial sunlight over the warm sector to mix out dews / instability somewhat and would create some opportunity for convection to slow the retreat of the warm front, though the cap should prevent this. This does cut down on the pre-frontal QPF but does suggest a bowing QLCS with some damaging winds on 05/19 in the Chicago area based upon low-level wind fields.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

gfsUS_sfc_temp_162.gif

 

00z GFS continued the theme of a potentially very interesting Sunday. Plenty of instability, very steep midlevel lapse rates, good deep layer shear, decent low level shear, deep neutral to negative tilt upper trough and a strong surface cyclone.  00z ECMWF is slower but still has a 998 surface low over IA by 00z 5/20. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

00z GFS continued the theme of a potentially very interesting Sunday. Plenty of instability, very steep midlevel lapse rates, good deep layer shear, decent low level shear, deep neutral to negative tilt upper trough and a strong surface cyclone.  00z ECMWF is slower but still has a 998 surface low over IA by 00z 5/20. 

The main threat looks to be damaging winds based upon the factors that I previously mentioned plus the 00Z trend toward more unilinear vectors in the lower levels. But still, I think anyone in the region would accept such a scenario, considering the dearth of significant severe weather over MI for the past several years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The main threat looks to be damaging winds based upon the factors that I previously mentioned plus the 00Z trend toward more unilinear vectors in the lower levels. But still, I think anyone in the region would accept such a scenario, considering the dearth of significant severe weather over MI for the past several years.

Not saying you will be wrong but seems kinda early to be talking about main threats a week out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not saying you will be wrong but seems kinda early to be talking about main threats a week out.

 

And describing a particular outcome affecting a specific city (ie. damaging wind QLCS affecting Chicago).

 

Agree with both of these, there are several things that can change both in favor or against the potential for next weekend. Being this detailed with respect to severe potential type, it would be too soon at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...