B-Rent Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 This is as good of thread as any to ask I suppose... Is this the new wind farm showing up? I've never noticed it on radar before. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 This is as good of thread as any to ask I suppose... Is this the new wind farm showing up? I've never noticed it on radar before. Sent from my SCH-I535 2 Definitely could be. I know they have this problem in White County. Wind farms galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Apparently, according to WTHI on Twitter, a tornado has been reported near Carlisle. Of course this is unconfirmed and no warning with it. Sheriffnado perhaps? And to follow up on this Trained Weather Spotter and Sheriff's office stated touchdown on Carlisle Road. Eh... take it as you will I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Photo on Facebook circulating, supposed tornado just south of assumption, il today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 There's pictures on the news now if this Riley tornado. Interesting. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Tor warning southeast of Indy. SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN1141 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2013INC031-100400-/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-130510T0400Z/DECATUR IN-1141 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2013...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL DECATUR COUNTYUNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...AT 1138 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADOWAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT 40MPH.HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO.SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MILFORD AND ADAMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Riley tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 2 tornadoes near Terre Haute http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=94530&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Here's an interesting graphic floating around on FB... MKX leads the pack in this region, closing in on almost 2 years since the last tor warning was issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Here's an interesting graphic floating around on FB... MKX leads the pack, closing in on almost 2 years since the last tor warning was issued. 21 days, in May, in Oklahoma. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Time to fantasize a bit since this spring season is so slow severe wise. Friday's 12z GFS looks interesting for Mon. afternoon and evening May 20 for possible WF action in ne MO, se IA, and Central IL. Mid to upper 60's dews, 1500-2000 CAPE, LI of -8 or -9, low LCL's. Shear could be better, but at this junction this far out this is only a heads up. Gotta look and hope for something. Plus I like the fact that posters in the Central region are targeting this system for its potential in the Plains a day or two earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 The DVN figure doesn't surprise me, but the Des Moines/Topeka/KC ones do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Wednesday could be a day to keep an eye on in terms of severe weather prospects. The lack of moisture and surface convergence will be the main things going against it, but there's definitely some severe weather potential with that cold front/shortwave coming through during peak heating with the modest wind field and temps well into the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Well this could make life interesting around these parts come next Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Here's an interesting graphic floating around on FB... MKX leads the pack in this region, closing in on almost 2 years since the last tor warning was issued. Haha, well I think we will get a tor warning this year in the CWA, if only because it is pretty uncommon to not have one in an entire year (in MKX's case, it's been since June 2011 I believe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Well this could make life interesting around these parts come next Saturday... Nice to see good instability on the map. One thing we'll have to guard against is overreacting...setups are bound to look amazing considering how things have gone so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Well this could make life interesting around these parts come next Saturday... You're not kidding, wow. Moisture probably won't be an issue by then. Definitely something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Nice to see good instability on the map. One thing we'll have to guard against is overreacting...setups are bound to look amazing considering how things have gone so far. There has been some consistency with the idea of a decent trough ejecting out with ample instability in place for a few days though right now it is best to stay conservative at this point. However it is nice to see the pattern breaking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 SPC day 4-8 outlook now hinting at things getting really active late next week. D DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0346 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013 VALID 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... GFS AND ECMWF IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD -- WITH ONLY LOCAL/LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL EVIDENT AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC AND A SECOND/MUCH WEAKER UPPER SYSTEM EXITS THE SRN PLAINS AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. MORE APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT COULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH -- MOVING ONSHORE DAY 5 /THU. 5-16/ -- CROSSES THE WRN U.S. AND APPROACHES THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH -- THE GFS BEING FASTER AND STRONGER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WHILE THE ECMWF EJECTS A MUCH SLOWER/WEAKER TROUGH. OVERALL...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE LEE TROUGH DAY 7 /SAT. 5-18/...WITH PERHAPS GREATER THREAT -- PARTICULARLY PER THE GFS SOLUTION -- FOR DAY 8 /SUN. 5-19/. WHILE INDICATIONS ATTM ARE THAT OUTLOOK AREAS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS -- POSSIBLY FOR MULTIPLE CONSECUTIVE DAYS...DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITHIN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS PRECLUDES A CONFIDENT AREAL DELINEATION OF THREAT AREAS ATTM. ..GOSS.. 05/12/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Can't chase next sat and sun for a variety of reasons, so pencil them in as good chase days. I'm hoping the whole setup slows down a few days. Nice to see some action in the future finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Re: the IL/IN/MI/Lakes threat on 05/19: The large Aleutian cyclone on the operational GFS causes a large Rex block developing over W Canada circa Day 6, thereby allowing a substantial inversion ahead of the frontal forcing on Day 7 and also allowing a substantial negative tilt to develop. Such a set-up would encourage substantial sunlight over the warm sector to mix out dews / instability somewhat and would create some opportunity for convection to slow the retreat of the warm front, though the cap should prevent this. This does cut down on the pre-frontal QPF but does suggest a bowing QLCS with some damaging winds on 05/19 in the Chicago area based upon low-level wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 00z GFS continued the theme of a potentially very interesting Sunday. Plenty of instability, very steep midlevel lapse rates, good deep layer shear, decent low level shear, deep neutral to negative tilt upper trough and a strong surface cyclone. 00z ECMWF is slower but still has a 998 surface low over IA by 00z 5/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 00z GFS continued the theme of a potentially very interesting Sunday. Plenty of instability, very steep midlevel lapse rates, good deep layer shear, decent low level shear, deep neutral to negative tilt upper trough and a strong surface cyclone. 00z ECMWF is slower but still has a 998 surface low over IA by 00z 5/20. The main threat looks to be damaging winds based upon the factors that I previously mentioned plus the 00Z trend toward more unilinear vectors in the lower levels. But still, I think anyone in the region would accept such a scenario, considering the dearth of significant severe weather over MI for the past several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Next Sunday looks like the best potential for severe around these parts, though that could easily be pushed back a day. I'm sure ongoing convection/debris will be an issue given the amount of convection progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 The main threat looks to be damaging winds based upon the factors that I previously mentioned plus the 00Z trend toward more unilinear vectors in the lower levels. But still, I think anyone in the region would accept such a scenario, considering the dearth of significant severe weather over MI for the past several years. Not saying you will be wrong but seems kinda early to be talking about main threats a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Not saying you will be wrong but seems kinda early to be talking about main threats a week out. And describing a particular outcome affecting a specific city (ie. damaging wind QLCS affecting Chicago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Not saying you will be wrong but seems kinda early to be talking about main threats a week out. And describing a particular outcome affecting a specific city (ie. damaging wind QLCS affecting Chicago). Agree with both of these, there are several things that can change both in favor or against the potential for next weekend. Being this detailed with respect to severe potential type, it would be too soon at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Let's just say at this point that Sun./Mon look to be interesting for IL and IN per GFS at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Let's just say at this point that Sun./Mon look to be interesting for IL and IN per GFS at least. Euro as well for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 00z GFS looks pretty nasty, again, for these parts on Monday, possibly some WF action on Sunday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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