cyclone77 Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Made a late run at that cell south of Dubuque. Storm formed not all that long before dark so it made for a short chase. Just pulled over by the Mississippi south of Savanna and watched it from the distance. Grainy screen capture near dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Tennis ball sized hail being mentioned in the warning. These "dry" environment storms always seem to overachieve in terms of hail production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Some of the storms northwest of Des Moines are exceeding 50kft. Could be quite the prolific hail producers with such steep lapse rates and lingering instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Anyone object to using this thread as sort of a severe catch-all? The bigger threats would still have separate threads but minor stuff like today could go here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted April 30, 2013 Author Share Posted April 30, 2013 Anyone object to using this thread as sort of a severe catch-all? The bigger threats would still have separate threads but minor stuff like today could go here. Haha, I changed the thread title (and sub-title) tonight to reflect exactly those thoughts. Glad we're on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised at all to see a few brief tornadoes over central/eastern IL and parts of IN tomorrow afternoon/evening. Instability is very low, but it won't take much to kick off some low-topped convection. With strong vorticity in the area anything that fires could put down a funnel cloud and perhaps a weak/brief tornado. Surprised SPC has essentially nothing for this area. Maybe that will change on the new day1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Worst start to the tornado season on record. Worse, meaning you want the things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Worst start to the tornado season on record. Worse, meaning you want the things. Worst? Where did you see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Worst start to the tornado season on record. Worse, meaning you want the things. Keep snowmobiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 Worst? Where did you see that? I'm guessing he may be talking about this http://www.norman.noaa.gov/2013/05/low-tornado-numbers-and-low-tornado-deaths-may-2012-april-2013/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 Tornadoes=Rain. All this Sun in May is wonderful but it's gonna lead to probably a crushing drought by mid Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 Tornadoes=Rain. All this Sun in May is wonderful but it's gonna lead to probably a crushing drought by mid Summer That stupid cutoff has put 14+ day kibosh on all prospects of interesting weather. Looks like another suppressing cold shot is on the way. This really is a dull ****ty pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 Punting chase season to '14. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 Punting chase season to '14. It's only May 5th, still a while to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 That stupid cutoff has put 14+ day kibosh on all prospects of interesting weather. Looks like another suppressing cold shot is on the way. This really is a dull ****ty pattern. I truly wouldnt put any stock in any long range models at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 I truly wouldnt put any stock in any long range models at the moment. Well, just the general split flow and lingering cutoffs isn't very conducive to anything interesting happening anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 It's only May 5th, still a while to go. We're a lock to make it past mid-May without anything decent. That leaves on average about a month left in "chase season". Time is ticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 We're a lock to make it past mid-May without anything decent. That leaves on average about a month left in "chase season". Time is ticking. Yeah a slow March and April wasn't really too big of a deal, but now that we're getting deeper into May it's starting to become a concern. May 22nd it'll be 2 years since my last tornado. Hopefully we have an active late May and June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 We're a lock to make it past mid-May without anything decent. That leaves on average about a month left in "chase season". Time is ticking. Oh yea time is ticking, but I just can't see there being no activity through June. The time is really ticking away on chances for the Southern Plains though, at least imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 6, 2013 Share Posted May 6, 2013 Oh yea time is ticking, but I just can't see there being no activity through June. The time is really ticking away on chances for the Southern Plains though, at least imo. Yeah I agree, the Northern Plains extending into the GLOV there is still plenty of time. Hell historically June is the best month for tornadoes in Michigan. If I were Southern Plains focused I would be worried but thankfully I am not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Slight risk out for parts of IN/IL for day 3. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT TUE MAY 07 2013 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS LOWER MI TO ERN MO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OK AND CENTRAL/NRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE IN MID-UPPER LEVELS. WELL-DEFINED CYCLONE NOW OVER SERN CONUS SHOULD WEAKEN AND EJECT NEWD OVER MID-ATLC REGION THROUGH DAY-2. AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS ERN CANADA...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DEAMPLIFY FURTHER DAY-3...MOVING NEWD ACROSS COASTAL MID-ATLC AND NEW ENGLAND...CONTRIBUTING TO GEN THUNDER POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THOSE REGIONS. MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CA COASTAL AREAS SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS 4-CORNERS REGION THROUGH DAY-2...AND PROGS ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THAT MUCH OF ITS EVOLUTION. HOWEVER...RIGHT AROUND START OF DAY-3...09/12Z...STRONG DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN OPERATIONAL AND SREF GUIDANCE REGARDING THIS SYSTEM AND ITS INTERACTION WITH UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CA. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED EITHER WAY. HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT THIS PERTURBATION CONTINUES MOVING EWD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS...AS PROGGED BY NAM/ECMWF...OR RETROGRADES BACK INTO PERIPHERAL VORTICITY FIELD OF CA TROUGH AS FCST BY SPECTRAL AND MOST SREF MEMBERS...WILL DEPEND ON AMPLITUDE OF LATTER PERTURBATION. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...BASIC PATTERN OF POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHING FROM CENTRAL PLAINS TO CA IS CONSISTENT...AS IS PRESENCE OF ENHANCED MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NRN MEX. NRN RIM OF SUBTROPICAL JET SHOULD LIE OVER CENTRAL/S TX BY 10/00Z. SMALL/CUT-OFF/MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NOW OVER SD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY AND LOWER MI AS OPEN-WAVE TROUGH. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD FORM ALONG NERN SEGMENT OF FRONTAL ZONE EARLY IN PERIOD...OVER MO/IA...THEN MOVE ACROSS IL TOWARD SRN LOWER MI THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SEWD TO SERN KS...WRN OK AND ERN NM BY 10/00Z. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD INTERSECT DRYLINE OVER W-CENTRAL/SWRN OK OR ADJACENT NW TX...WITH DRYLINE SSWWD ACROSS W-CENTRAL TX TO COAHUILA. ...SRN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... BROAD SWATH FROM SW TX TO OH VALLEY REGION WILL MOISTEN SUFFICIENTLY BY THIS TIME TO SUPPORT DIURNAL TSTMS ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL ZONE...AND E OF DRYLINE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 60S F. THOSE BOUNDARIES...AS WELL AS OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY PRIOR OVERNIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION...SHOULD FOCUS RELATIVE CONCENTRATIONS OF CONVECTION AND AT LEAST MRGL SVR POTENTIAL DAY-3. AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES IN PATTERN ALOFT WILL AFFECT GEOMETRY OF LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS AND RELATED FAVORABILITY--OR NOT--OF DEEP SHEAR...ESPECIALLY N OF CENTRAL/SRN TX SUBTROPICAL JET. ACCORDINGLY...KINEMATIC PROFILES VARY SUBSTANTIALLY IN FCST SOUNDINGS IN MANY GIVEN SPOTS...FROM MODEL TO MODEL. TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF RELATIVE SVR CONCENTRATION MAY BE... 1. ALONG COLD FRONT FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS IL...WHERE FRONTAL FORCING AND FOREGOING DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL NEAR SVR LIMITS POSSIBLE. VEERED WARM SECTOR FLOW AND WINDS ALOFT CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH BOUNDARY INDICATE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTION. 2. ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AND DRYLINE OVER PORTIONS TX/OK..WHERE STG SFC HEATING AND 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE MAY BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENTS TO LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NEAR BOUNDARIES. PROGGED SFC FLOW IS WEAK...HOWEVER...LIMITING HODOGRAPH SIZE IN MOST AREAS. CONVECTION MAY BE RATHER MESSY AND CLUSTERED OVER THIS REGION...BUT WITH SVR HAIL/GUSTS POSSIBLE GIVEN STRENGTH OF BUOYANCY AND AT LEAST MRGL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 7, 2013 Share Posted May 7, 2013 Might have some severe into day 4? DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0355 AM CDT TUE MAY 07 2013 VALID 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN NOW CHARACTERIZING MID-UPPER LEVELS OVER CONUS IS PROGGED TO TRANSITION TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BELT OF SYNOPTIC-SCALE WAVES DURING DAY 3-8 PERIOD. SHORTWAVE DIFFERENCES DESCRIBED IN DAY-3 OUTLOOK CARRY INTO DAY-4/10TH-11TH. IN ADDITION...SFC AIR MASS AND BOUNDARY CHARACTERISTICS FROM TX TO OH VALLEY LIKELY WILL BE AFFECTED BY LARGE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM DAY-3 INTO EARLY DAY-4. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ON MESOSCALE TO ASSIGN SPECIFIC 30% AREA ATTM. THOUGH DIFFERING CONSIDERABLY IN SHORTWAVE DETAILS...OPERATIONAL PROGS AND MREF CONSISTENTLY DEPICT WEAK/POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND PERHAPS SMALL/CUT-OFF LOW OVER NRN MEX FROM DAY-5/11TH-12TH ONWARD...WITH INTENSIFYING/PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY SWD ACROSS ERN CONUS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN MAY SUPPORT SOME DAY-5 SVR POTENTIAL AHEAD OF DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT...OVER CORRIDOR BETWEEN MID-ATLC REGION AND AL DAY-5. LOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO FLOW ALOFT. BECAUSE OF BOUNDARY-TIMING/POSITION UNCERTAINTIES...RISK APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL TO ASSIGN 30% AREA ATTM. BEYOND DAY-5...POTENTIAL WILL BECOME LOWER AS ERN TROUGHING AND RELATED LOW-THETAE BOUNDARY LAYER COVER MUCH OF ERN STATES AND NRN GULF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Day 2 outlook now mentioning conditional threat for isolated tornadoes. There is some pretty nice veering with height on forecast soundings. ..MID MS AND OH VALLEYS AXIS OF UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MARGINAL IN THIS REGION DUE TO WEAKER LAPSE RATES AND ALSO POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING CONVECTION. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THIS REGION RESULTING IN SIZEABLE HODOGRAPHS WHICH ALONG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30-35 KT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WHERE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR. STORMS MAY CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE WEAKLY CAPPED WARM SECTOR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT OR IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MAIN THREATS APPEAR TO BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...BUT A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 8, 2013 Share Posted May 8, 2013 Could this upcoming Thursday be a surprise sleeper event in the Midwest? It has been sooooo.....long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 9, 2013 Author Share Posted May 9, 2013 Eh, at least it's something. Been so boring lately. Relevant part of the discussion for the sub-forum: ...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...A BELT OF MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...ONTHE ORDER OF 30+ KT...ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT CONVECTIVELY GENERATEDCYCLONIC VORTEXES...MAY ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPINGACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS ANDNORTHERN/CENTRAL INDIANA BY THIS AFTERNOON. DESTABILIZATION TO THESOUTH OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT...EXTENDING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE MIDMISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...MAY BE LIMITED BYRELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...PERHAPS WEAK SURFACE HEATINGAS WELL. BUT IT COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A RISK FORSEVERE WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGER ACTIVITY...BEFORECONVECTION WEAKENS THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 9, 2013 Share Posted May 9, 2013 Eh, at least it's something. Been so boring lately. And today was different how? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 10, 2013 Author Share Posted May 10, 2013 And today was different how? Success! BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 752 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SULLIVAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... SOUTHERN VIGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 815 PM EDT * AT 748 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HUTSONVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SULLIVAN...GRAYSVILLE...CARLISLE...PAXTON...FAIRBANKS...PRAIRIE CREEK...SHELBURN...DUGGER...FARMERSBURG...HYMERA...PIMENTO... PRAIRIETON...RILEY AND SEELYVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 And today was different how? Success! BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 752 PM EDT THU MAY 9 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SULLIVAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA... SOUTHERN VIGO COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... * UNTIL 815 PM EDT * AT 748 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HUTSONVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SULLIVAN...GRAYSVILLE...CARLISLE...PAXTON...FAIRBANKS...PRAIRIE CREEK...SHELBURN...DUGGER...FARMERSBURG...HYMERA...PIMENTO... PRAIRIETON...RILEY AND SEELYVILLE. Run of the mill. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Run of the mill. Sent from my SCH-I535 2 Apparently, according to WTHI on Twitter, a tornado has been reported near Carlisle. Of course this is unconfirmed and no warning with it. Sheriffnado perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 10, 2013 Share Posted May 10, 2013 Run of the mill. Sent from my SCH-I535 2 Apparently, according to WTHI on Twitter, a tornado has been reported near Carlisle. Of course this is unconfirmed and no warning with it. Sheriffnado perhaps? The LSR says it came from the 911 center. Probably worse than a sheriffnado. A soccer-momnado. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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