Hoosier Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 I think the midweek period could be the last severe activity in the region until at least the tail end of April if not May. Going to be plagued by eastern troughing for a while and even after it breaks down, any system that comes out initially could have problems with good moisture return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Some models still show the potential for a nice line of storms to develop in central Iowa tomorrow afternoon. Cape still looks pretty meager, but with strong forcing and pretty nice shear profiles there could still be a few decent storms along the line. If there was a little more instability/deeper moisture available a brief tornado would have been a possibility before the line consolidates, however the lack of moisture/instability ensures that won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 BTW here's a sounding/hodo from the 12z NAM for south-central Iowa tomorrow afternoon at 21z. Very nice, but needs more instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Cyclone - looks like the NAM hires is trying to fire off convection in eastern Iowa in the early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 We have a 992 low right now as of 7 p.m. mountain time in eastern Colorado. May provide some interesting wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 02z RAP instability for 20z tomorrow. Man it's too bad this is way too high, or this would actually be a pretty nice little setup. Shows pockets of 1500j/kg cape over central Iowa beneath very nice shear profiles. Unfortunately cape will probably have a hard time getting much above 500j/kg with the lack of deep moisture. You have to go way down to southern Arkansas to find dews over 50 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Nice squall line depicted by the U of IL model. It shows dews reaching to near 60 around the QC at this time, which will end up being way overdone, but we can only dream right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 I noticed that College of Dupage has updated their NAM model products and change their base map for the MW region. A couple of new products on there are: Supercell composite Sig Tornado Parameter: 1KM EHI 3KM EHI PWAT Sim Reflectivity Now I know you can get some of these products elsewhere but this is the first place I know of where you can get these products for free centered on this region. I for one, like the new products, now if we could get the NAM to actually have quality output that would help as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 I must be on crack, but I'm gonna probably head to central Iowa here in a bit. Instability is gonna be weak to be sure, but with these shear profiles and the slightest possibility there could be just enough instability to get something decent I can't resist. Liking the area near Iowa Falls. Good soundings for that area, and will be on the northern area of best (relatively speaking) moisture/instability. Could see a quick spin-up there before the line consolidates. Near Iowa Falls around 22z. Just need a little more instability and this would be pretty nice. Too close not to at least take a shot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 SPC upgraded Iowa into the slight risk along with 2% tornado probs. Dews are still in the 40s over most of Iowa and Missouri, so the mid-upper 50s shown on the RAP will be too high of course. Might see a narrow corridor of 50-55 dews though immediately ahead of the front later today, and that MIGHT be just enough to encourage a little nadogenesis. Gonna head towards Des Moines and adjust from there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Good luck today Cyclone. I don't know about naders but hopefully you will see some good storm structure with those lapse rates. If only moisture were more plentiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 You out there right now Cyclone and where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 I noticed that College of Dupage has updated their NAM model products and change their base map for the MW region. A couple of new products on there are: Supercell composite Now I know you can get some of these products elsewhere but this is the first place I know of where you can get these products for free centered on this region. I for one, like the new products, now if we could get the NAM to actually have quality output that would help as well. Stebo, thanks for finding that on the COD web site. The only other web site with the supercell composite and STP is this: http://www.wxcaster.com/experimental_products.htm Sometimes the SCP values are way overdone (not sure why.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 You out there right now Cyclone and where? Yeah ended up northwest of Des Moines by Perry and Boone. First cells that went up were mildly interesting but quickly became undercut and crapped the bed. May have got a semi-decent time lapse with the gopro. Wasn't really expecting much, but I thought they would do a little better than they did. Oh well, still fun to get out for the first time this year and test some new stuff I picked up over the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 15, 2013 Share Posted April 15, 2013 Quick time lapse of the short central Iowa chase. Kind of a pointless chase in a way, but it was the first time out this season and it was nice to test some new stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 21, 2013 Share Posted April 21, 2013 zzzzzz.... for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 zzzzzz.... for now. Too bad the Tuesday system doesn't have better moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 22, 2013 Share Posted April 22, 2013 Too bad the Tuesday system doesn't have better moisture... Well, I don't exactly need any more moisture up this way. Not right away anyways. Seems like I can't get severe up here anyways without first getting through a whole buttload of overrunning crapvection which is the last thing we need. I'm through with the floods. The mosquitoes are going to be awful as soon as it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 28, 2013 Share Posted April 28, 2013 SPC put a slight risk out for DBQ and DVN areas for Monday. .PARTS OF THE UPPER/MID-MS VALLEY...AS NOTED IN THE INITIAL D2 DISCUSSION...MODEL GUIDANCE /ESPECIALLYSREF...NAM AND GFS/ MAY BE GROSSLY OVERDONE WITH THE DEGREE OFLOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE MIDWEST BY MON AFTERNOON.FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THESE MODELS INDICATE MEAN MIXING RATIOSREACHING 12-14 G/KG WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION PRIOR TO DEPICTEDCONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE DECAYING FRONT. WITH ONLY A MODERATESWLY LLJ ON SUN NIGHT...AND 12Z RAOBS THIS MORNING INDICATING MEANMIXING RATIOS OF THAT MAGNITUDE CONFINED TO DEEP S TX AND ACROSS THELOWER MS VALLEY...IT APPEARS A BIT FAR-FETCHED THAT THIS AMPLITUDEOF MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE FULLY REALIZED. IN ADDITION...THEFRONTOLYTIC NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH WAA AT 700 MB LIKELYMAINTAINING A CAPPING INVERSION WILL PROBABLY MITIGATE DIURNAL TSTMDEVELOPMENT TO ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CAP. THIS TYPE OFSCENARIO APPEARS FAIRLY REPRESENTED IN 12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING WRFGUIDANCE. AMIDST A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WLYS...THIS SETUPCOULD YIELD A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATDURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING IF TSTMS INDEED FORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Definite shot at some severe on Monday in the IA, IL, WI region. Large hail the likely threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Some 1" hail reports coming out of this storm. It's been going for several hours, and dropped 2" hail out near Waterloo earlier this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 First cell in the process of developing out near Carroll Iowa. Could be the start of a minor severe event out in Iowa tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 29, 2013 Share Posted April 29, 2013 Nice little 50 kt jet streak at H5 nosing into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 First cell in the process of developing out near Carroll Iowa. Could be the start of a minor severe event out in Iowa tonight. NWS radar is in anti-weenie mode, capped at 28 dbz. WTF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Was watching Mcmillan's stream a bit ago. Looks like the storm has a real nice updraft, so think it should continue to intensify in coming scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 TBSS and 1.25" hail with the cell south of DBQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Hen egg sized hail reported south of DBQ. Looks like the cell is making a right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 Tennis ball sized hail being mentioned in the warning. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGILC085-300245-/O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0018.130430T0156Z-130430T0245Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL856 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHERN JO DAVIESS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 945 PM CDT* AT 850 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GALENA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...VEHICLES AND CROPS.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... COUNCIL HILL...SCHAPVILLE...SCALES MOUND...APPLE RIVER...WARREN... GALENA TERRITORY...GUILFORD...APPLE CANYON LAKE AND APPLE RIVER CANYON STATE PARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted April 30, 2013 Share Posted April 30, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0581NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0900 PM CDT MON APR 29 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 300200Z - 300400Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED/QUICKLY DEVELOPING SVR TSTM PRODUCED 2.5-INCH HAIL REPORT NEAR DBQ AT 130Z. PER COORD W/AFFECTED WFOS...NO WW IS BEING ISSUED YET. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR UPSCALE GROWTH THAT COULD COMPEL WW ISSUANCE...IN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR OCNL LARGE HAIL FROM ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION. DISCUSSION...ACTIVITY NEAR DBQ DEVELOPED NEAR DIFFUSE SFC WARM FRONT EXTENDING WNWWD ACROSS SRN MN INTO ERN SD...AND ALSO..NEAR NERN END OF FRONTOLYTIC WARM-FRONTAL CORRIDOR THAT EXTENDS INTO LOW OVER CENTRAL/SWRN KS. NEARBY DVN RAOB...IN WARM SECTOR...SAMPLED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH ROUGHLY 1-INCH PW SUPPORTING MLCAPE 800-900 J/KG. MUCAPE FOR INCREASINGLY MOIST PARCELS ROOTED AROUND 800-850 MB IS IN 2000-2500 J/KG RANGE...MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF RAPID INITIAL INTENSIFICATION RATE OF CONVECTION OBSERVED SO FAR. WITH NEAR-SFC COOLING...ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY ELEVATED...BUT WITH POTENTIAL TO SEND ISOLATED STG/DAMAGING GUST THROUGH SHALLOW NEAR-SFC STABLE LAYER. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HAIL. SIGNALS FOR KINEMATIC SUPPORT ARE MIXED...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID-UPPER WINDS LIMITING CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL WAA AND RELATED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 200-250 J/KG. THOUGH FIXED-LAYER SRH SHOULD INCREASE BENEATH STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ...NEAR-SFC DIABATIC STABILIZATION WILL EFFECTIVELY TRUNCATE SOME OF THAT HELICITY IN VERTICAL. EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDE 35-40 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. ..EDWARDS/KERR.. 04/30/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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