thunderman Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 15Z HRRR breaks the cap and develops a lone supercell in east-central CO that tracks into northwest KS later in the evening. Definitely an improvement over earlier runs of the HRRR which had little to nothing. NSSL WRF does the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0400 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0236 PM CDT MON APR 08 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 081936Z - 082200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER FAR ERN CO ...AND MAY MATURE AND MOVE INTO WRN KS AND SWRN NEB. DISCUSSION...PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE AT AROUND 1.0 - 1.2 MB/HR ACROSS ERN CO AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ATTEMPTS TO RETURN NWWD. THE SURFACE THETA-E AXIS WAS LOCATED FROM WRN OK INTO SERN CO JUST S OF A RELATIVELY COOL STRATUS-INDUCED COLD POCKET FROM GCK TO DDC. GRADUAL HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...AND DESPITE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER ERN CO...INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE PRESENT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF CU BENEATH BROKEN CIRRUS NEAR LHX AND EXTENDING NWD TOWARD AKO. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...A FEW UPDRAFTS SHOULD GROW INTO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. WHEN THIS OCCURS...THE BACKED SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW CELLS TO TURN EWD AND MOVE ACROSS THE KS BORDER. HODOGRAPHS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH MAXIMUM HAIL SIZE ESSENTIALLY LIMITED BY AVAILABLE MOISTURE. IF STORMS CAN PERSIST INTO THE 50 F DEWPOINT AIR...VERY LARGE HAIL WOULD BE LIKELY. A MARGINAL TORNADO THREAT COULD ALSO MATERIALIZE BUT ONLY IF CELLS CAN MAINTAIN STRENGTH INTO THE LOWER LCL ENVIRONMENT BEFORE CAPPING DESTROYS THEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 SPC just issued a severe t-storm watch for NW CO. Weird seeing it right up against WSW's in WY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 You know the cap is strong when the SPC is mentioning it "destroying" storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 You know the cap is strong when the SPC is mentioning it "destroying" storms. The nuclear cap rears it's ugly head. The only way for this cap to be broken is if temperatures were in the 100s and dewpoints in the 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 The nuclear cap rears it's ugly head. The only way for this cap to be broken is if temperatures were in the 100s and dewpoints in the 80s. Or with stronger forcing for ascent, remember that the upper trough is still primarily well west of the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Given how cool this spring has been at least here in the Midwest I think it very strange to be talking about a nuclear cap which I usually associate with summer in the Plains. We need to get the current trough over the Great Basin to the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Hodographs on the RAP for 00z continue to be fairly long and open. If the NSSL/HRRR are correct with an isolated mature cell or two, they could be quite significant with very large hail. Soundings verbatim look to have a LCLs a bit to high for my tastes for a big tornado threat ... despite hodographs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 SPC just issued a severe t-storm watch for NW CO. Weird seeing it right up against WSW's in WY. Interestingly, the watch disco seems more upbeat about a tor threat after 23z in W KS than the meso disco above DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING/MIXING CONTINUES ACROSS ERN CO IN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN THE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS FARTHER E INTO W/NW KS WILL BE MONITORED FOR MORE OF A MOISTURE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND SOME THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AS THE ERN CO STORMS MATURE AND MOVE INTO KS CLOSER TO 23Z OR SO. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0085.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 I am going to be in the Ardmore, OK area tomorrow. Being from the Philly area it would be nice to spot my first ever tornado. How is that area looking tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 I am going to be in the Ardmore, OK area tomorrow. Being from the Philly area it would be nice to spot my first ever tornado. How is that area looking tomorrow? Right now SPC has a 30% hatched for the area, which means a 10% probability of significant svr within 25 miles of a point. Capping is always a concern but you just might be in a favorable area for some action. The problem of course is how long cells can stay discrete before forcing produces a line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 I am going to be in the Ardmore, OK area tomorrow. Being from the Philly area it would be nice to spot my first ever tornado. How is that area looking tomorrow? Is this your first chase? I would recommend a good old fashioned map. I would also recommend downloading a map program to your laptop that will allow more detail than an old fashioned fold out map. You can rely on phone a little but that can get you into trouble. There will be a lot of chasers out tomorrow and a lot of data demands on cell networks this can result in iffy data coverage and as a result GPS capability may be limited. Get into place well in advance of estimated convection and scour the road networks, take a few notes, etc. So that way when you have to move, if you have to move...and if you do it'll likely be quickly you'll have some ideas on where to go, where roads are etc. Avoid dirt roads, that western OK dirt turns into a big time mud pit pretty easily and you'll slide off the road if unless you have a vehicle equipped for offroading. If you see a tornado do NOT lose focus on your surroundings. Additional spinups happen and you do not want to get caught off guard. Keep your head on a swivel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Not too impressed with tomorrow either from a tornado standpoint. Much lower CIN, upper storm relative winds roughly parallel to the dry line and low level storm relative winds more perpendicular to the dry line, will likely lead to upscale growth and enhanced gust front lifting. There could be a few tornadoes .. especially early, but IMO this will likely not be a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Funny like one person is on the northern cell. It looks good on radar tho I'm sure the base is way up there. The southern base is like a mile up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Tho everything looks like kinda crap at this pt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Tho everything looks like kinda crap at this pt Couple new taller Cu showing up on IR if you really want to be optimistic haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 623 PM MDT MON APR 8 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO... * UNTIL 645 PM MDT * AT 619 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BONNY RESERVOIR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HALE. THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 217 AND 221. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TO REPEAT...A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Something is also trying to fire off near Ulysses. Not much, but we shall see. Edit: yeah not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Land spout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Most probably.....chalk one up to helicity and shear over dewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 The supercell index is now 12 in Colorado, and I got a wind chill factor! Just miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Not really on a chase per say. I am in Ardmore for work . Thought I might be in a good spot, but chasing wont be possible. Where I am from large lines are the norm but since these will be cellular in nature I have to be lucky. I have Radarscope on iPhone so I will be on the lookout and if anything crops up nearby perhaps I'll get lucky. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 cooking a bit now.. several storms with tornado reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 cooking a bit now.. several storms with tornado reports This is interesting - especially since the SPC was so explicit that a cell needed to make it to KS to likely become tornadic today. Three active TOR warnings on the Front Range in CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 This is interesting - especially since the SPC was so explicit that a cell needed to make it to KS to likely become tornadic today. Three active TOR warnings on the Front Range in CO. looks like they are running right along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 I assume SPC was thinking about mesocyclone tornadoes instead of probable landspouts. Alas, adequate dews did not move that far west in Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Very odd motion with those cells. Storm relative motion appears to be opposite the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Akron just got blasted with some wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Scanner feed police referenced spotters confirmed TOG 13 miles southwest of Akron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 These cells are loving the shear along the front. Excellent looking super cell in KS 0752 PM TORNADO 15 SSW AKRON 39.96N 103.32W04/08/2013 WASHINGTON CO TRAINED SPOTTER ON THE GROUND FOR THE PAST 10 MINUTES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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