JoMo Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Day 3. (Tues) DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0229 AM CDT SUN APR 07 2013 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST SHOULD EVOLVE INTO TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVE IMPULSES...ONE MOVING NEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND THE OTHER REMAINING IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NWRN MEXICO. MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR IN RESPONSE TO THE LEAD IMPULSE. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLONE IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD AND REACH THE LOWER MO VALLEY BY TUE NIGHT. THE SRN PLAINS DRYLINE WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD REACH CNTRL TX BY EARLY WED. ...LOWER MO VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS... A BROAD CORRIDOR OF ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH ALL HAZARD TYPES IS ANTICIPATED TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED MORNING. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN GIVEN RELATIVELY LARGE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE WITH THE HANDLING OF THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING FROM THE WRN CONUS TROUGH. NCEP GUIDANCE REMAINS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE IMPULSE WHICH AFFECTS POSITIONING OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT...AND MORE BULLISH WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF KINEMATICS OVER THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR. THIS BREEDS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY OVER WHERE TO PLACE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES OR EVEN WHETHER THEY ARE NEEDED BEYOND AN ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK. REGARDLESS OF THE PATTERN DIFFERENCES...GIVEN STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW IN THE WRN GULF...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE S-CNTRL CONUS. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASING THROUGH THE PERIOD...SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED CLUSTERS SHOULD COMMENCE TUE AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF KS AND DEVELOP S/EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ AND TORNADOES WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. WHILE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS LOWER-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS AND CONVECTIVE MODE BECOMES MORE CLUSTER/LINEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Best chance of convective precip of any significance (.10 per 3 hrs) is Northeast of the best confluence of MUCAPE/shear/any precip, up in Kansas, but for the people already living in Oklahoma, I'd think it'd be worth a shot... Only the HRRR, but the lone cell near dusk on the state line is heading South of due East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Downtown Wichita is about to get some hail it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Models (Especially the NAM) are too moist as of 18z. The NAM has widespread 60+ DP's into S. KS, but in reality there's only a pocket of 60+ DP's SW of OKC currently. The ESRL RAP has the best handle on the DP situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Best chance of convective precip of any significance (.10 per 3 hrs) is Northeast of the best confluence of MUCAPE/shear/any precip, up in Kansas, but for the people already living in Oklahoma, I'd think it'd be worth a shot... Only the HRRR, but the lone cell near dusk on the state line is heading South of due East. that one in KS hold on too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 First storm of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 First watch of the day out, until 900pm CDT. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0083.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Our lone ranger cell is gonna do the split. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Most of the 5% area pretty socked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Keeps trying to hook but is remaining outflow dominant. Probably dropping some nice hail though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Keeps trying to hook but is remaining outflow dominant. Probably dropping some nice hail though. The mid-level rotation is there, but the storm is pretty high based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Cells firing in W-KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Another cell trying to pop in central KS near Ellsworth.Best area for anything tornadic IMO looks to be roughly 40 miles either side of the OK/KS border and East of a Pratt to Woodward line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Cells firing in W-KSGood, they need the rain. Another cell trying to pop in central KS near Ellsworth.Dew Point's in the low 40's up there. Mile high cloud bases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 We would have gone nuts for a significant tornado ingredients map like this last year--- that is, before they changed the formula for it. It's for today (3 hours in the future) ha ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Good, they need the rain. Dew Point's in the low 40's up there. Mile high cloud bases. Yup. Not getting much out of those ... or that whole line really. Main threat today is going to be much much closer to the OK/KS line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 See how it progresses but everything is popping outside the warm sector so far. Cap strong of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 TWC named the storm Walda. lol. Wonder when they'll start naming outbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SquatchinNY Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 That would be hard to find a criteria for. It would be ridiculous to do it solely on number of tornadoes (Two EF5s makes for a very bad day), or solely on strength (100 EF2s makes for a very bad day). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Cu field building now down into the DDC area. Let's see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 FWIW, Looks pretty darn close to what's out there right now. Later this evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Cu field building now down into the DDC area. Let's see what it does. Has been struggling for the past 30min. The window of opportunity is closing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 That would be hard to find a criteria for. It would be ridiculous to do it solely on number of tornadoes (Two EF5s makes for a very bad day), or solely on strength (100 EF2s makes for a very bad day).Well they could probably just carry thru and name all big synoptic storms all year. You might miss some accidents etc. hopefully they don't but given their philosophy wouldn't be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 That would be hard to find a criteria for. It would be ridiculous to do it solely on number of tornadoes (Two EF5s makes for a very bad day), or solely on strength (100 EF2s makes for a very bad day). People have developed outbreak rating systems before, including members from this forum (although I can't seem to dig up the links). You can combine various parameters such as casualties, combined path lengths of the tornadoes, number of significant (EF2+) tornadoes, number of violent (EF4+) tornadoes, number of long tracked tornadoes, total damage caused, etc. to get an overall rating through an algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Cu field building now down into the DDC area. Let's see what it does. Small, SMALL cell just popped and trying to form just west of DDC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 We would have gone nuts for a significant tornado ingredients map like this last year--- that is, before they changed the formula for it. It's for today (3 hours in the future) ha ha. SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f015.gif What did they change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 What did they change? I've wondered that myself but it seems like it is now easier to get higher values which may not necessarily verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Golf ball size hail reported in Fort Scott KS with warning now stressing possibility of tennis ball size hail as the cell in Vernon/Barton County moves east/se. Now reports of golf ball hail breaking windows south of Nevada MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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