OKpowdah Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 Yeah there continue to be some textbook soundings coming out of OK and KS on Monday evening, and there is convective initiation being hinted at. If these trends continue, I'll be pretty impressed. Can't wait for the SPC day 3 outlook tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 I took Tuesday off work so i will be able to go out , although i may not have to go far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 If these trends continue, I'll be pretty impressed. Can't wait for the SPC day 3 outlook tonight. 100+ kt H5 jet streak wrapping around the ULL on Tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Can't believe how many chasers are following the GFS around run-to-run. The consistent ECMWF continues to be the way to go. Hard to put trust in a model (GFS) when it can't even stick with a solution for more than 6hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Yeah there continue to be some textbook soundings coming out of OK and KS on Monday evening, and there is convective initiation being hinted at. pretty good agreement on monday at this pt. looks pretty solid somewhere in there. it looks better overall than may 25 last yr but at the sfc it looks sorta similar at least with placement and where the focus of convection is. not that it won't change.. and there is seemingly a good bit more potential at least at mid-lvls etc, but prob some other negatives comparatively given it's 6 weeks earlier inj the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Can't believe how many chasers are following the GFS around run-to-run. The consistent ECMWF continues to be the way to go. Hard to put trust in a model (GFS) when it can't even stick with a solution for more than 6hrs. Well, I can understand the chaser mindset of model hugging. They're looking for an optimum run for them. I've learned over the years to just sit back and wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 6, 2013 Author Share Posted April 6, 2013 Trend with the NAM just keeps going! Sharper trough, stronger sfc low. I am very curious what the SPC rolls out for day 3. But I'm getting more and more impressed with Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 It will probably be deleted, but here's a soundings for Lawton, OK for Tues evening off the 12z ECMWF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 It will probably be deleted, but here's a soundings for Lawton, OK for Tues evening off the 12z ECMWF... That's one scary sounding. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Its the NAM, but its really been trending towards a much more interesting system overall. 00z NAM 500mb winds 12z Tues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Yeah models are really struggling with the speed of the trof. Differences could be the difference between a good tornado show and a cap bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Its the NAM, but its really been trending towards a much more interesting system overall. 00z NAM 500mb winds 12z Tues grearth 2013-04-05 23-19-25-22.png Incredible trough and synoptic cyclone, but strictly in terms of tornado potential, the extremely meridional flow over the warm sector there presents a serious problem for Tuesday. One could argue there's potential down south as the base of the trough veers flow aloft again later, but will the low-levels veer out too by then? I'll admit the ECMWF looks quite impressive, but with most of the other, faster solutions, Tuesday is likely a grungefest and perhaps even linear. Furthermore, the NAM is swaying me toward pessimism on initiation Monday, for the time being. Not because of its QPF output, which can't be trusted, but moisture simply doesn't look quite sufficient to overcome the stout EML in most soundings. The CINH map is rather depressing. If there were a large area of -50 to -75 J/kg east of the dryline, I'd say that's perfect for allowing instability to build until ascent arrives late. But for the most part it's < -100 J/kg everywhere, and that's no bueno, judging from experience (even regarding CINH model depictions at this range). The GFS soundings have looked tantalizing for days and still do, but I'm afraid its 65+ dews could be a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Another sig change from the GFS incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 6, 2013 Author Share Posted April 6, 2013 Incredible trough and synoptic cyclone, but strictly in terms of tornado potential, the extremely meridional flow over the warm sector there presents a serious problem for Tuesday. One could argue there's potential down south as the base of the trough veers flow aloft again later, but will the low-levels veer out too by then? I'll admit the ECMWF looks quite impressive, but with most of the other, faster solutions, Tuesday is likely a grungefest and perhaps even linear. Furthermore, the NAM is swaying me toward pessimism on initiation Monday, for the time being. Not because of its QPF output, which can't be trusted, but moisture simply doesn't look quite sufficient to overcome the stout EML in most soundings. The CINH map is rather depressing. If there were a large area of -50 to -75 J/kg east of the dryline, I'd say that's perfect for allowing instability to build until ascent arrives late. But for the most part it's < -100 J/kg everywhere, and that's no bueno, judging from experience (even regarding CINH model depictions at this range). The GFS soundings have looked tantalizing for days and still do, but I'm afraid its 65+ dews could be a stretch. Strongly agree on Tuesday. Monday, certainly possible that the cap kills everything in OK, but southern KS, it's a little better. Also, the trough just keeps on trending sharper and sharper, and the surface low even deeper. I mean, we're down near 980mb Monday evening in SE CO! And this sounding is just spectacular (aside from wanting a little more moisture in the BL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 lol @ the excitement over the NAM. See me tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 The problem is, that's the NAM. And the NAM is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Can't believe how many chasers are following the GFS around run-to-run. The consistent ECMWF continues to be the way to go. Hard to put trust in a model (GFS) when it can't even stick with a solution for more than 6hrs. Totslly agree. We feel the same way about the euro...as does Fort Worth...as stated in their afd basically. Nice to see the 28z and moreso 00z GFS FINALLY come more on board...now if it can just continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 The problem is, that's the NAM. And the NAM is terrible. Yup. Nice wx porn output though, minus the cap that is forged of steel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Personally I don't think there is anything wrong with using aspects of the NAM, in conjunction with the global models, at this juncture. I think it is more usable in severe weather events than in winter events even if the synoptics may be off. It tends to get boundary layer dews slightly closer to reality than the GFS (as Brett mentioned), and it usually has more realistic low level wind fields with trough ejections than what the GFS depicts. Obviously using verbatim solutions at this point is not advised, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Soundings for 00z Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Personally I don't think there is anything wrong with using aspects of the NAM, in conjunction with the global models, at this juncture. I think it is more usable in severe weather events than in winter events even if the synoptics may be off. It tends to get boundary layer dews slightly closer to reality than the GFS (as Brett mentioned), and it usually has more realistic low level wind fields with trough ejections than what the GFS depicts. Obviously using verbatim solutions at this point is not advised, however. Thank you for restoring sanity. Jesus. We get it; it's cool to say "lolz NAM" and disregard anyone or anything mentioning it. Yet, it's becoming plainly obvious the GFS is handling the BL poorly, as it always does. Since most of us only have access to NCEP model soundings, I'm afraid some discussion involving NAM soundings is inevitable. Also, over the years, I've found the NAM to perform no worse than the GFS inside its range for severe weather in this region, and possibly better. (Granted, it's undergone serious changes over that time, and every year is a new test). Winter is another story, as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 6, 2013 Author Share Posted April 6, 2013 Thank you for restoring sanity. Jesus. We get it; it's cool to say "lolz NAM" and disregard anyone or anything mentioning it. Yet, it's becoming plainly obvious the GFS is handling the BL poorly, as it always does. Since most of us only have access to NCEP model soundings, I'm afraid some discussion involving NAM soundings is inevitable. Also, over the years, I've found the NAM to perform no worse than the GFS inside its range for severe weather in this region, and possibly better. (Granted, it's undergone serious changes over that time, and every year is a new test). Winter is another story, as you said. But it's so cool to put down the NAM because it shows that you know the models so well. </sarcasm> In all seriousness, for now I'm using the NAM and ECMWF for this event with GFS as spot check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Yeah I don't get the whole 'lolz it is the NAM' stuff. It is all in interpretation of the models, none of them are meant to be the gospel because if so then there wouldn't been a need for meteorologists, they would just pump out model forecasts and that is that. Sure the NAM has foibles but all the models do and it is up to our interpretations of all the models that matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT SAT APR 06 2013 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX POTENTIALLY EJECTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH BY EARLY TUE. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE LEE OF THE SRN ROCKIES. A SHARP DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO FAR WRN OK AND THE TX BIG COUNTRY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS MERGING WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO MID-MO VALLEY BY EARLY TUE. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... TWO PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES RENDER LOWER-THAN-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN MAKING ANY SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED 30 PERCENT AREA THAT BEGAN ON D5. FIRST AS ALLUDED TO IN THE CURRENT D2 OUTLOOK...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE IN MOST MODELS GIVEN THAT RICHER TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS BEEN CURRENTLY RELEGATED INTO THE CARIBBEAN. STILL...PRECEDING DAYS OF SLY RETURN FLOW BENEATH A STOUT EML SHOULD YIELD A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...INCREASING TO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE DRYLINE IN OK/TX. THIS SHOULD BE ABLE TO YIELD AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE SECOND UNCERTAINTY IS WITH REGARD TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH AND EJECTION/TIMING OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES. THE ECMWF APPEARS MORE REASONABLE AND CONSISTENT WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH GIVEN THE ATTENDANT INTENSE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SPEED MAX. THIS SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL FORCING MAY NOT BE PHASED WELL WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. IN ADDITION...TIMING THE EJECTION OF ANY SUBTLE LEAD IMPULSES IS PREMATURE AT THIS POINT. THE MORE LIKELY FORCING MECHANISM FOR SUSTAINING TSTMS WILL BE LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE MON EVENING/NIGHT...AS CONTINUED STRONG CAPPING WILL LIKELY MITIGATE OPEN WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY EXIST FOR INITIATION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN OK INTO SWRN KS. ELONGATED/CURVING HODOGRAPHS WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 6, 2013 Author Share Posted April 6, 2013 The discussion describes the uncertainties and limitations pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 00z euro sounding for mcpherson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0345 AM CDT SAT APR 06 2013 VALID 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... MULTI-DAY SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE S-CNTRL AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY THE SERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE WRN CONUS. PRECEDING DAYS OF SLY RETURN FLOW OF A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS BENEATH A STOUT EML SHOULD YIELD AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE PLAINS DRYLINE BEING OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PROGRESS EWD DURING THE PERIOD. WITH STRENGTHENING OF MID-LEVEL SWLYS AS THE SPEED MAX EJECTS FROM THE BASE OF THE WRN CONUS TROUGH...SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND AN EVENTUAL SQUALL LINE WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ PROBABLE DURING D4-5. STILL...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY AVERAGE FOR HIGHLIGHTING CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED COVERAGE PROBABILITIES /AOA 30 PERCENT/ AS MODELS REMAIN MODERATELY DIVERGENT WITH TIMING OF THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. DISCREPANCIES WITH EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT BECOME EVEN GREATER BY D6-7...WHERE SEVERE WEATHER AREAS COULD EVENTUALLY BE WARRANTED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. ..GRAMS.. 04/06/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Slightly OT here - I just got an email from F5 Data with a discount offer. I see certain products like this for sale and I am wondering if they really add that much beyond what is available to the general public for free. I guess my real question is, that as a hobbyist who does not sit there and deeply analyze models/alter my schedule to view them, is something like F5 really "worth it"? Or if not, is there one thing in particular that you could recommend among all the services available. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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