AgeeWx Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 FWIW, 850 temps are a bit, chilly, Tuesday night with North winds. I won't claim to be an expert forecaster but that would appear to be an convective stop sign for the Western threat area Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 FWIW, 850 temps are a bit, chilly, Tuesday night with North winds. I won't claim to be an expert forecaster but that would appear to be an convective stop sign for the Western threat area Tuesday night. Those winds are to the west of the surface low pressure which I don't think really matters much. As you look closer to the frontal boundary itself you'll see that the winds are more NW which is want you want for any low level convergence with the moisture stream coming in from off the Gulf. You also have some westerly flow behind the dry line which will add more convergence. CIN should also be weakened if not gone for some spots so there could definitely be some things firing up. Bulk shear is pretty nice at that time as well between 70-80 kt range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 GGEM, on the other hand, keeps a Euro-like solution and lights up the dryline in KS/OK/TX by 18z shifting into the Western Ozarks by 00z Tuesday evening. That, and the Euro appears to be sticking to its guns from yesterday through 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 GGEM, on the other hand, keeps a Euro-like solution and lights up the dryline in KS/OK/TX by 18z shifting into the Western Ozarks by 00z Tuesday evening. The GGEM is a compromise of the GFS/ECMWF. The ECMWF holds with Tues being the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Through 96, the 12z Euro is slower and dropping the system into the southwest vs the 12z GFS. Now the wait for the wunderground maps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 The GGEM is a compromise of the GFS/ECMWF. The ECMWF holds with Tues being the day. Yeah, I'd say the GGEM is about a 60-65% Euro/35-40% GFS compromise or something along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Euro fires some stuff in KS on Monday it seems. Pretty torchy at 850 further south. Maybe someone in N Central KS can get a tornado on Monday and snow on Tuesday. Seems it would favor mess over pure greatness on Tuesday, but some pre-frontal convection looks a decent bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 It's hard to put too much stock into the GFS solution at this point due to how it has handed teleconnections over the past two months, and how blocking will play a role in this case. The difference in how it handles the Hudson/C. Canada vortex/energy is much different than the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 There's still good uncertainty on the GEFS. There's a spread of 90-100 m over the S. California and S. Nevada in regards to 500 mb heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 12z Euro does pop what looks to be something east of the dryline in S KS and N OK on Monday afternoon/evening. Looks like the activity in OK has backing surface winds out of the S-SE, CAPE values of 2000 and what I'm assuming is 34-38 kts of some kind of shear. Tuesday does indeed look messy with multiple rounds of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Very nice soundings off the 12z ECMWF in OK for Tues evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 12z Euro does pop what looks to be something east of the dryline in S KS and N OK on Monday afternoon/evening. Looks like the activity in OK has backing surface winds out of the S-SE, CAPE values of 2000 and what I'm assuming is 34-38 kts of some kind of shear. Tuesday does indeed look messy with multiple rounds of convection. Monday looks pretty nice with a weenie vort bubble over Kansas with dew's in the 60's, nice bulk shear, low CIN values, CAPE around 2000 Jkg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Yeah but it's their attempt of notifying the public early because it's the best safeguard we've got to this point. No. not sure i believe that but maybe im cynical. tornadoes are a big traffic draw. no reason not to say next week looks like a severe weather week but the constant running to the high end of potential gets old and probably doesn't help in cases where we actually look extremely likely to reach that potential.. most of those aren't totally apparent at this range either i wouldnt think. Your cynicism is spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 I was being generous. In reality, outside of 48-60 hours is comparable to hour 224 on the GFS. Out here in Alaska the NAM is often crap right at initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 It's hard to put too much stock into the GFS solution at this point due to how it has handed teleconnections over the past two months, and how blocking will play a role in this case. The difference in how it handles the Hudson/C. Canada vortex/energy is much different than the ECMWF. Yes I agree, GFS has been pretty solid up until this odd 12z run. Taken in context with everything else including the larger pattern, it really makes no sense. It is pretty toss worthy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 No. How so? I don't know of any other source where you can find out a severe weather threat a week in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 How so? I don't know of any other source where you can find out a severe weather threat a week in advance. First, they aren't the only source, and second, they are hardly the most reliable. It is hypecasting at its worst, and hypecasting by its nature has nothing to do with public service. Most public weather companies these days have found that hypecasting is more profitable. It doesn't help that the media tends to latch on to the worst case hyped scenarios either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 How so? I don't know of any other source where you can find out a severe weather threat a week in advance. even in an outbreak your odds at any one spot of getting hit by a tornado are super low. i don't blame twc for treating it as a business as it is for them, but whipping people into a frenzy from distance would have long term detrimental impacts unless it verifies more often than not. not really sure what people would do 5-7 days out they couldn't do 1-2 days out anyway. as a comparison SPC issues pretty dry but factual forecasts which are good guidance.. they don't have 25 articles with fancy graphics full of catchy keywods for something that might not happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 First, they aren't the only source, and second, they are hardly the most reliable. It is hypecasting at its worst, and hypecasting by its nature has nothing to do with public service. Most public weather companies these days have found that hypecasting is more profitable. It doesn't help that the media tends to latch on to the worst case hyped scenarios either. Yep, it mostly comes down to the almighty dollar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 even in an outbreak your odds at any one spot of getting hit by a tornado are super low. i don't blame twc for treating it as a business as it is for them, but whipping people into a frenzy from distance would have long term detrimental impacts unless it verifies more often than not. not really sure what people would do 5-7 days out they couldn't do 1-2 days out anyway. as a comparison SPC issues pretty dry but factual forecasts which are good guidance.. they don't have 25 articles with fancy graphics full of catchy keywods for something that might not happen though. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 18z NAM is pretty much straight up classic for south-central Kansas Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 As Ben Franklin said, most people are not weatherwise as are trained mets and wx enthusiasts like those on this board. I expect TWC and similar firms to play to ratings and ad dollars to hype interest if nothing else among the general public. More serious and scientifically minded persons can go to SPC and weather boards such as this for more reasoned discussion. Sometimes I wonder if the "Cry Wolf" factor really is valid anymore. We have such short attention spans and are bombarded by so much media and social network noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Yet another solution from the 18z GFS. I find it interesting that the GFS/Euro develop storm(s) over N OK on Monday afternoon/evening in nearly the same spot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 A sub 990 low in KS this time of year with a wide open Gulf certainly gets my attention to see how future model runs develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 Dare I say, the 18z GFS looks like the NAM ... which is more consistent with the ECMWF. At this point, even if so far outside of the NAM's wheelhouse, I'm following the NAM and ECMWF and giving the GFS a single grain of salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 CIPS based on this mornings 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 Both GFS and NAM have much more consolidated energy in the trough, with a much shorter half-wavelength ... result is stronger, more concentrated forcing and the stronger surface low, also pulled closer to the upper level trough axis. If this is the trend, then we're in for quite a ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 5, 2013 Author Share Posted April 5, 2013 CIPS based on this mornings 12z runs. PPF24allprobtopgfs212F096.png PPF24allprobtopgfs212F120.png As it's based on the 12z GFS, I'm not giving this much credence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Dare I say, the 18z GFS looks like the NAM ... which is more consistent with the ECMWF. At this point, even if so far outside of the NAM's wheelhouse, I'm following the NAM and ECMWF and giving the GFS a single grain of salt Yeah there continue to be some textbook soundings coming out of OK and KS on Monday evening, and there is convective initiation being hinted at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Amazingly, the GFS and ECMWF both suggest a quick return to major western troughing as early as next weekend or early the following week. Making up for lost time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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