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Significant severe weather threats 4/8-10


OKpowdah

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RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

1036 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...POTENT COLD FRONT TO BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE

REGION...

KSZ049>051-067-101745-

/O.CON.KICT.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-130410T1800Z/

SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-RENO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALINA...LYONS...MCPHERSON...HUTCHINSON

1036 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT

WEDNESDAY.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN OR

FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET...WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA

THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35

POSSIBLE.

* SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE HALF INCH ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF

THE EVENT.

* IMPACTS...WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...RAIN

WILL FREEZE ON THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ANY OBJECT THAT IS

ELEVATED. FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE ROADWAYS

TO BECOME SLICK AND DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES

SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...SO BE CAREFUL DRIVING TONIGHT

AND WEDNESDAY MORNING!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR

IMPOSSIBLE.

&&

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284  

ACUS01 KWNS 100552  

SWODY1  

SPC AC 100550  

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

1250 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013  

  VALID 101200Z - 111200Z    

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN  

PLAINS...ARKLATEX...MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS  

AND MID-ATLANTIC...  

    ..ARKLATEX/LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY  

 

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE  

CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AS A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET ON THE ERN SIDE OF  

THE SYSTEM...MOVES NEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE WRN OZARKS. AT  

THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS ECNTRL MO AND WRN AR.  

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS MORNING BEHIND THE  

FRONT FROM WRN MO SSWWD INTO ECNTRL OK. THIS ACTIVITY COULD HAVE A  

HAIL THREAT. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE  

IN THE MID 60S F ACROSS ERN AR...SE MO AND SRN IL WHERE MODERATE  

DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. SCATTERED  

THUNDERSTORM COULD INITIATE DURING THE DAY ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF  

INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  

EVENING...THE MODELS FOCUS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG  

AND TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE A LINEAR MCS SHOULD  

ORGANIZE.  

 

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 03Z/THU NEAR THE MS RIVER FROM ERN AR NWD INTO  

SE MO SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF  

0-6 KM SHEAR. IN ADDITION...WINDS ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW TO  

MID-LEVELS WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. FOR THIS  

REASON...THE STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE MAY BE ABLE TO  

PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY  

INCREASING AS THE LINE ORGANIZES. THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO  

BE THE GREATEST FROM ERN AR NNEWD INTO SE MO ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF  

THE LOW-LEVEL JET WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...LOW-LEVEL  

SHEAR AND MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED. HAIL COULD ALSO  

OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE OR WITH  

ANY CELL THAT INITIATE AHEAD OF THE LINE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. THE  

SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH  

MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO AREAS EAST OF THE MS  

RIVER DURING THE 06ZZ TO 12Z TIMEFRAME.  

    ..OH VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS  

 

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE  

OH VALLEY INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS FORECAST  

TO MOVE EWD ACROSS NRN MO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE  

LOW ACROSS CNTRL IL...NRN IND...NRN OH INTO PA. SOUTH OF THE  

BOUNDARY...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM  

THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S F. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED  

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF  

THE BOUNDARY WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SWD ACROSS THE  

WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY 21Z AT INDIANAPOLIS AND PITTSBURG  

SHOW SBCAPE VALUES FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 TO  

45 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  

UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD BE FAVORABLE  

FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH SHORT LINE-SEGMENTS THAT CAN  

PERSIST. HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH ELEVATED CELLS NORTH OF THE  

BOUNDARY OR WITH CELLS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THAT OBTAIN ROTATION.  

 

..BROYLES/GARNER.. 04/10/2013  

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If the trough happens to kick out slower than forecasted I think it may enhance tornado potential in Central/Southern IL and SE MO. Models hinting at some diffluence aloft along with several pieces of energy being ejected, all of that juxtaposed with the best SFC-500mb crossover.

 

That being said it will have to be ahead of the cold front and after watching yesterday play out in the Southern Plains I can see today being even more of a congenial mess.

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day1probotlk_1630_torn.gif

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1122 AM CDT WED APR 10 2013      VALID 101630Z - 111200Z      ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM LA/AR TO   THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC...      ...NRN LA AND CENTRAL/ERN AR TO IL THROUGH TONIGHT...   A MIDLEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY   AND THE MID MO VALLEY TONIGHT...AS AN EMBEDDED JET STREAK ROTATES   NNEWD FROM W TX TO OK/KS.  IN RESPONSE...SLOW DEEPENING OF THE   SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED NEAR STL...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT   MOVES ONLY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU THROUGH THIS   AFTERNOON...AND MORE QUICKLY SEWD TOWARD THE TX COAST.  IN ADVANCE   OF THE FRONT...A PLUME OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM   THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS SPREAD INLAND ACROSS LA/AR...WHERE BOUNDARY   LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE REACHED THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F.  THIS   MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED BENEATH A REMNANT EML PLUME WITH MIDLEVEL   LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM.        VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME CLOUD BREAKS ACROSS MUCH OF AR...WHICH   WILL ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S THIS   AFTERNOON...AND SUPPORT MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG.  ALSO...THE SLY LLJ   WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT FROM   CENTRAL/ERN AR TO IL/INDIANA...IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING MID MS   VALLEY LOW.  LIKEWISE...MID-UPPER SWLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH THE   GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THE JET STREAK EJECTING NNEWD OVER ERN OK/KS.    THE NET RESULT WILL BE AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR   SUPERCELLS /EFFECTIVE SRH APPROACHING 300 M2 PER S2 AND EFFECTIVE   BULK SHEAR NEAR 50 KT/.      GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN AR   THIS AFTERNOON...AND SUBSTANTIALLY RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS   LA/AR COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER W IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE RISK FOR   SUPERCELLS BOTH ALONG AND A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE   GREATER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.  THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASING   RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING   ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AR INTO SE MO...AND POTENTIALLY AN ISOLATED   STRONG TORNADO IF A SEMI-DISCRETE STORM CAN BE MAINTAINED FOR A   COUPLE OF HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED   WITH WHAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SOMEWHAT SOLID FRONTAL SQUALL LINE BY   EARLY TONIGHT.  THE ERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK OVERNIGHT WILL BE   LIMITED BY SLOW EWD MOTION OF THE FRONT...AND BY WEAKENING   INSTABILITY ACROSS ERN MS/AL INTO MIDDLE TN WHERE LOW-LEVEL IS MORE   LIMITED BY TRAJECTORIES FROM WITHIN THE LINGERING RIDGE OVER THE SE   STATES.        ...OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS EVENING...   A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS   OH AS OF LATE MORNING...AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH   THE AFTERNOON WHILE SPREADING EWD INTO PA.  INSTABILITY IS NOT   PARTICULARLY STRONG...WITH THE GREATEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEED INTO   THE OH VALLEY FROM THE SW...BUT STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTEND EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  GIVEN   THE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WIND PROFILES WITH UP TO 50 KT FLOW   AROUND 500 MB...ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS WELL   AS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL W OF THE APPALACHIANS.      ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/10/2013
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0427   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0103 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL AR INTO SRN AND SERN MO      CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY       VALID 101803Z - 102000Z      PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT      SUMMARY...STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS   AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE CHARACTER LATER TODAY WITH   TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY. TORNADO   WATCHES ARE FORTHCOMING SOON.      DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL MO ACROSS   WRN AR TO JUST SW OF TEXARKANA AS OF 18Z...WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE   SW OF ST. LOUIS. HEATING HAS ERODED MOST OF THE CIN ACROSS THE WARM   SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 76-81 RANGE. THE 18Z LZK   SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NEARLY GONE WITH A   DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING ABOVE 700 MB. ALSO SHOWN IN THIS   SOUNDING IS THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN   STEEP...AND THAT MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE   DESPITE HEATING. WIND PROFILES THIS FAR E OF THE COLD FRONT HAVE NOT   YET RESPONDED TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE   HAPPENING SW TOWARD SHV WHERE 850 MB FLOW WAS MORE BACKED.       ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS SWRN AR   AND NERN TX...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN. OVER TIME...LOW LEVEL   WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND BACK FURTHER...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY A ZONE   OF DEVELOPING PRESSURE FALLS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS THIS   OCCURS...HODOGRAPHS WILL BECOME ENLARGED AND THE CHARACTER OF THE   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE FROM DISORGANIZED/MARGINAL SEVERE   TO SUPERCELLULAR WITH A TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL   MOISTURE AND LARGE LI/S...A COUPLE STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.       DURING THE EVENING...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE ALONG THE   FRONT...WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR QLCS MODE. EVEN SO...STRONG   SHEAR WILL FAVOR TORNADOES AND SWATHS OF DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE   WINDS.      ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 04/10/2013
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Damn near a PDS watch in AR, 80/50 tornado probs.

 

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 89   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   120 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013      THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF              CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS          THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI BOOTHEEL      EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM UNTIL   900 PM CDT.      TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE   AREAS.      THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF   WALNUT RIDGE ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTH OF EL DORADO ARKANSAS.    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).      REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.      OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 88...      DISCUSSION...SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES ACROSS AR   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE CAP IS WEAKENING PER 18Z LZK/SHV   SOUNDINGS.  CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING   COLD FRONT IN SW AR...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM NWD   ALONG THE FRONT...AND POTENTIALLY IN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR.  MLCAPE   IS ALREADY AOA 2000 J/KG WITH A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND BOTH   DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS   AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE INITIAL CONVECTION WILL POSE A RISK FOR   LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...WHILE THE TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE   LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR   AND MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPH STRUCTURES.  ASSUMING A COUPLE OF   SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS CAN PERSIST...ESPECIALLY OFF THE COLD   FRONT...AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.      AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO   550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.         ...THOMPSON
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Extreme rotation now. 

 

I would be very surprised if there isn't a tornado on the ground.

 

attachicon.gifRot.png

 

 

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  426 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013    ARC029-129-137-141-102145-  /O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-130410T2145Z/  CONWAY AR-SEARCY AR-STONE AR-VAN BUREN AR-  426 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013      ..TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN SCOTLAND  TORNADO EMERGENCY IN EFFECT   FOR CLINTON...    ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL VAN BUREN...  SOUTHWESTERN STONE...EASTERN SEARCY AND NORTHERN CONWAY COUNTIES  UNTIL 445 PM CDT...    AT 424 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A DANGEROUS STORM.   THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLAUDE...OR 9  MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.    * LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE...    MARSHALL...           CLINTON...            WOOLUM...    WATTS...              THOLA...              ROCKY HILL...    OLD LEXINGTON...      MT EVANS...           MIDDLETON...    LANTY...              ELBERTA...            ELBA...    CLEVELAND...          CLAUDE...             CHOCTAW...    BLICK...              TIMBO...              SCOTLAND...    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...    TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR  OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT  YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
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First tornado emergency of the year spring

 

 

 

 

534 
WWUS54 KLZK 102128
SVSLZK
 
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
426 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013
 
ARC029-129-137-141-102145-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0020.000000T0000Z-130410T2145Z/
CONWAY AR-SEARCY AR-STONE AR-VAN BUREN AR-
426 PM CDT WED APR 10 2013
 
...TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN SCOTLAND...TORNADO EMERGENCY IN EFFECT 
FOR CLINTON...
 
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL VAN BUREN...
SOUTHWESTERN STONE...EASTERN SEARCY AND NORTHERN CONWAY COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...
 
AT 424 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A DANGEROUS STORM. 
THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLAUDE...OR 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH
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