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Significant severe weather threats 4/8-10


OKpowdah

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Watch now out for Central and Western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. High probability of severe hail. 

 

ww0086_radar.gif

 

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS   AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE WATCH AREA.  STORMS WILL BE BEHIND A   STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT.  BUT DESPITE THE VERY COLD LOW LEVEL   ENVIRONMENT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND   SHEAR FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.  COVERAGE OF   STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
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Ended up calling the chase and heading to the Wichita Mountains.

Hit the front on the way up...Temps fell from the low 80's to the current 49F. Over the past 5min have gone from heavy rain, to melted hail, to graupel, and even what looked like a few snowflakes.

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Severe Tstorm Ice Storm Flood?

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA HAS ISSUED A    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...    NORTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...    COLFAX COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...    SOUTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...    EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...    NORTHWESTERN SAUNDERS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA...    * UNTIL 630 PM CDT    * AT 551 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A     LINE EXTENDING FROM PLATTE CENTER TO BRAINARD...MOVING NORTHEAST     AT 50 MPH.    HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.    SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT.    IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. THIS STORM HAS A   HISTORY OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL THAT HAS COVERED THE GROUND   UP TO ONE INCH DEEP. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FALLING ON SUB-  FREEZING SURFACES RESULTING IN A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON   ROADS...VEHICLES... AND POWER LINES.    
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prb_24hicez_ge.50_2013041000f024.gif

WPC (feels weird to type that :lol:) upped the probs of up to a half inch of ice. I'm having a hard time imagining this will happen down here, but would be nasty if it did...

Any idea on ice storm climo around there? Seems like it would be pretty unusual to get a significant one at this time of year.

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Missed the day forecasting for the Wichita/McConnel AFB area

 

 

TAF AMD KIAB 0922/1024 32015G25KT 8000 -SHRA OVC011 520009 QNH2958INS      TEMPO 0922/1002 30035G50KT 6000 TSRAGR OVC020CB      BECMG 1002/1003 31015G30KT 8000 -SHRA OVC007 520004 QNH2977INS      TEMPO 1003/1006 -FZRA 690001      BECMG 1005/1006 32025G40KT 8000 -SNPL OVC007 650079 530004 QNH2977INS      TEMPO 1006/1015 -FZRA OVC004 690001 650109      BECMG 1015/1016 32010G20KT 8000 -SNPL BKN010 OVC020 650209 QNH2995INS      BECMG 1020/1021 31015G25KT 9999 NSW BKN020 OVC030 QNH2996INS T24/1020Z TM04/1012Z AMD 092228       

 

Looks like a few cells forming across the Wichita Falls area, nice outflow boundary pushing toward Dyess... 

 

My trendcast showing highest primed zone from Wichita Falls --  Ponca City -- Wichita -- Kansas City -- Fort Smith -- McAllister,

Map output:  http://smartwxmodel.net/severe.html

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Nice Squall Line in OK and KS... Behind the Cold Front, would have been nice to see all that cold air aloft get past W KS. What exactly happened today to make it bust-- Not like it had a whole lot of potential with weak kinematics but still disappointing.

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One for the books:

METAR KGAG 092353Z AUTO 30017G26KT 3SM TSUP BR BKN010 BKN018 OVC027 M02/M03 A2996 RMK AO2 PK WND 34032/2319 LTG DSNT SW-N TSB00E15B24SNB07E22B34E46 PRESRR SLP144 P0002 60002 T10171028 10028 21022 53033

 

This one from earlier was nice, although I wish they had done the ob correctly and put in the hail size in the remarks:

 

KGRI 091855Z 1 1/4SM R35/6000VP6000FT VCTS GR BKN010 OVC016 M02/M03 A2990 RMK AO2 PK WND 36028/1855 LTG DSNT NW-NE P0000 $

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Pratt 32 with snow ob and a severe t-storm tho not sure it's actually snowing. Saw they were getting 1.5" hail. 

 

Heck of a day for the hypesters. When Brett stops posting it's usually a sign. :P

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Crazy system

 

 

 

 

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0722 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013      AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN/S-CNTRL NEB...CNTRL KS...FAR   WRN/NWRN OK...FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE      CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION       VALID 100022Z - 100245Z      SUMMARY...BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE FAR ERN TX   PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL/ERN NEB ARE OCCURRING IN VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY   TO SUB-FREEZING NEAR SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR   ABOVE THE FREEZING SURFACE AIRMASS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING   COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SLEET AS WELL AS FREEZING RAIN.      DISCUSSION...SLOPED ASCENT OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG BUT   SHALLOW COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH MUCAPE VALUES ROOTED NEAR 800 MB IS   AIDING IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE FAR ERN TX   PANHANDLE INTO S-CNTRL/ERN NEB. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED OVER OR IN   VERY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A 1 KM DEEP SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS...WITH 4-8   DEG C WARM NOSE POSITIONED BETWEEN 850-700 MB. THUS...STORMS TONIGHT   WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SLEET IN   ADDITION TO FREEZING RAIN. RISK OF LARGE HAIL ALSO EXISTS...REFER TO   WW/S 86 AND 87 FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER   THREAT.      ..GARNER.. 04/10/2013

 

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Western half of Omaha hit with some decent sized hail. 1.25 to 1.75" reports.

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0826 PM HAIL MILLARD 41.21N 96.16W 04/09/2013 M1.75 INCH DOUGLAS NE TRAINED SPOTTER 168TH AND Q.

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS

949 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...POTENT COLD FRONT TO BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE

REGION...

KSZ049>051-067-101700-

/O.UPG.KICT.WW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-130410T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KICT.WS.W.0005.130410T0300Z-130410T1800Z/

SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-RENO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SALINA...LYONS...MCPHERSON...HUTCHINSON

949 PM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL

1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY FREEZING RAIN OR

FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SLEET...WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA

THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35

POSSIBLE.

* SLEET ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END

OF THE EVENT.

* IMPACTS...WITH THE EXTREMELY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...RAIN

WILL FREEZE ON THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY ANY OBJECT THAT IS

ELEVATED. FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE ROADWAYS

TO BECOME SLICK AND DANGEROUS...ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES

SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. BE CAREFUL DRIVING TONIGHT AND

WEDNESDAY MORNING!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED

OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

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