Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Sitting in Lawton...Watching and waiting. Where ya at? I'm sitting at the Loves a few miles north of town off I-44. We're at the Conoco on 62, just west of I-44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Where ya at? I'm sitting at the Loves a few miles north of town off I-44. Heading to Lawton myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Coming up to s ok or staying 20 miles south of Wichita Falls? Holding in Wichita Falls. Have some modest TCUs that have developed in the past 20 mins. Plus Nam and GFS dont bring front through here to 00z. Plan on possibly using 287 to run wnw-ese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 The modest developing TCU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0411 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0214 PM CDT TUE APR 09 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO MUCH OF CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 091914Z - 092115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY FORM AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED BEFORE 21Z. DISCUSSION...AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE SWD ACROSS TX INTO WRN OK. ALONG THIS FRONT...OCCASIONAL CU HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND DISSIPATED AS SOURCE AIR GETS UNDERCUT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE AIR MASS HAS BEEN CAPPED. HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES CHANGING CHARACTER TO THE CU FIELDS FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN OK NEAR THE FRONT. A DEEPER GROUPING OF TCU HAS FORMED ON THE NOSE OF THE HOTTER AIR ACROSS NWRN TX...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION WHERE CAPPING IS NEGLIGIBLE. MORE RECENTLY...STABLE WAVE CLOUDS HAVE MIXED ACROSS W CNTRL AND SWRN OK...SUGGESTING THE CAP IS BEING LIFTED THERE AS WELL. WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND COOLING IN THE CAPPING LAYER...STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM IN REGARD TO LONG LIVED SEVERE CONVECTION IS THE TENDENCY FOR THE FRONT TO UNDERCUT DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG IT...ORPHANING THE INCIPIENT UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION MAY END UP BEING ELEVATED BEHIND THE FRONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Holding in Wichita Falls. Have some modest TCUs that have developed in the past 20 mins. Plus Nam and GFS dont bring front through here to 00z. Plan on possibly using 287 to run wnw-ese.where in Wichita Falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Cu southwest of Frederick looks to be behind the front already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 CU field here has looked better at times, but still meh overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 3.5 inch hail with that T-Storm warning NW of Omaha. 34/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Actually, it's freezing rain. There is a nasty ice storm going on in a narrow strip. Still tearing along. I can only imagine what it's like to be under a storm dropping up to quarter size hail with heavy freezing rain going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Still tearing along. I can only imagine what it's like to be under a storm dropping up to quarter size hail with heavy freezing rain going on. Done that before. It's pretty awesome actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Done that before. It's pretty awesome actually. I haven't had the uh..."luxury" of experiencing it. Not high on my list of things to witness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 where in Wichita Falls? Just left Burger King in town...off of 277. Gonna go slightly north and hold in Burkburnett. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Just left Burger King in town...off of 277. Mind if I catch up I'm in downtown Wichita Falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 Dry line entering southwest Oklahoma pic.twitter.com/XCFP1aCNOn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Tornado threat lowered to 2 percent. zzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Tornado threat lowered to 2 percent. zzzzzzzz I was actually toying with the idea of writing last night (er, I guess this morning) that today looked more like a 2% tor risk day than a 10% risk day. The geometry of just about everything is off... not to mention the crappy shear profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Heading south towards Randlett/Wichita Falls. CU field looks like crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Heading south towards Randlett/Wichita Falls. CU field looks like crap. Good luck. tornadoguy...Mark...and I are just north of Wichita Falls in Burkburnett on I-44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Sitting in Burkburnett watching terrible looking CU fade away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Sitting in Burkburnett watching terrible looking CU fade away. Come by and say hi. We're sitting in McDonalds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 18Z OUN sounding: really good shear from the sfc to about 800mb but that veer-back-veer profile just isn't going to cut it. Looping vis sat you can see that any cu that try to get going get quickly undercut by the cold air at the sfc. Anything that develops will more than likely be elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 00z ECMWF was superior from last night...with the front surging much farther S much faster and subsequently shunting any dryline activity. Even if the NAM/GFS did verify, the window was small with not so impressive kinematics immediately east of the dryline...which had been the case for multiple days as the models showed weak pressure falls/low level wind fields with this anafront setup. Was a bit surprised when SPC went Mod. I think it was Broyles who issued the forecast. He does tend to be a little optimistic at times under certain circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 00z ECMWF was superior from last night...with the front surging much farther S and subsequently shunting any dryline activity. Even if the NAM/GFS did verify, the window was small with not so impressive kinematics immediately east of the dryline...which had been the case for multiple days as the models showed weak pressure falls with this anafront setup. Was a bit surprised when SPC went Mod. I think it was Broyles who issued the forecast...and he tends to be a little optimistic at times. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Stayed near home, with quarter to half dollar size hail east of ABILENE, KS ....Time to hit the road again and try to catch back up .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Severe t'storm warning in NE for quarter size hail...Temps in the 20's with snow. Lo ****ing l You should've chased in Nebraska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Wow https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/321722259049955329/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 00z ECMWF was superior from last night...with the front surging much farther S much faster and subsequently shunting any dryline activity. Even if the NAM/GFS did verify, the window was small with not so impressive kinematics immediately east of the dryline...which had been the case for multiple days as the models showed weak pressure falls/low level wind fields with this anafront setup. Was a bit surprised when SPC went Mod. I think it was Broyles who issued the forecast. He does tend to be a little optimistic at times under certain circumstances. That was the overwhelming consensus in the NWC today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Not even sure this is the appropriate thread for it, but the 15Z SREF has 70%+ probabilities for ZR at OKC between 09-15Z tomorrow. Exciting times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Looks to me as though severe storm development will peak around midnight in OK and n/c TX, could just be something to chase between Wichita Falls and Lawton around sunset but most of the major action will be overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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