nrgjeff Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 I'd have kept the 10% for south-central OK only. Surging CF may cut off OKC, which is good for the general population. Chasing interests can set up shop south of town. If I lived in OKC, DFW, SPS or in between I'd certainly plan a chase this afternoon. The only problem is see is a veer-back-veer issue around 700 mb - which can prevent. In contrast to SPC I think there IS enough shear in south-central OK, both directional shear and speed shear to keep storms off the CF. Appears 850 mb will have enough moisture to prevent a surface dewpoint crash. Not crazy windy to mix down 700 dry, I don’t think. Finally NAM still forecasts a pre-frontal trough or quasi DL ahead of the CF in southern OK. It's close, and maybe 5% is right, but that’s just semantics. If you live close this is a chase day. It's not high probability, but it's a "go" in my book. Good luck and be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Well that didn't last long. 10% areas seem to get dropped fairly often as of late. Wonder what the change of thinking was. Given the surging front, the displaced LLJ, and the strong capping the warm sector ahead of the front, I think the 5% is valid. This setup doesn't look very good for tornadoes IMO. I agree Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 I wonder if it is worth traveling too, now. I'm in the dfw area and deciding whether to make the drive to Wichita Falls or not, any suggestions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 I wonder if it is worth traveling too, now. I'm in the dfw area and deciding whether to make the drive to Wichita Falls or not, any suggestions? I'd still go. You already came this far. At the very least you're still gonna probably see beautiful supercells...and a 5 tor isn't bad. Besides...how many times in the past have we seen them up it at the last minute. Quite frankly...I was surprised to see the 10 tor at 6z...as I would have figured they'd have waited on that to the 1630Z...so they could gauge mesoanalysis. Mark (friend/co-worker from work) and I are heading up in 20 mins. Just gonna check with the forecast office to make sure they won't need us...but seeing it won't hit my CWA until after 10pm...am sure we're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Your CWA being ft worth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 12Z NAM/WRF has triple point in North Texas now. That's a quick run up 287 from DFW. Looks like post-frontal stuff in OK. Well, if you are in someone else's car, hail core punch? Kiding! Back to Texas tornado chance, looks like just 5% works. However if you live in DFW and can get the afternoon off why not go? I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Haha I'm on vacation from work but sounds interesting and unfortunately I'll be by myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 CF is racing SE at a good clip. Not too confident that we have much time to pop discrete cells before going linear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 CF is racing SE at a good clip. Not too confident that we have much time to pop discrete cells before going linear Totally agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13040912_OBS/ 12z OUN sounding..... That is one hellacious cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 CF is racing SE at a good clip. Not too confident that we have much time to pop discrete cells before going linear 00z ECMWF was not favorable at all for much in the way of discrete DMC ahead of the cf. Seems 12z american guidance heading that way. Compared to 00z runs, NAM has shunted the dryline bulge ahead of the front well down into N Texas now which matches well with the current progression of that arctic front. Pretty common bias for the models once these arctic fronts surge through the high plains of CO...they tend to accelerate and move faster than models depict. Hodos are much less impressive farther S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Down to 30% hail slight risk day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Mike bettes and tornado hunt 2013 is 10 miles to my south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 Goodbye moderate risk, hello winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Goodbye moderate risk, hello winter weather advisory. R.I.P. the first moderate risk of the year on the southern Plains. You lived a short life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 The SPC has a slight risk and also 45% for the MIssissippi Valley tomorrow. Is this some mistake? Their text discussion clearly says "slight risk." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 The SPC has a slight risk and also 45% for the MIssissippi Valley tomorrow. Is this some mistake? Their text discussion clearly says "slight risk." It becomes moderate once it's 45% hatched. They say in the outlook the situation doesn't warrant a moderate risk at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Got to love Winter returning to screw up another severe threat today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Closing in on Lawton. It obviously doesn't look promising, but we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Just made it to Wichita Falls, breaks in clouds but I'm not feeling like this is going to be a good afternoon, we will see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 All of the clearing ahead of the cold front concerns me a little. Forecast soundings for the Red River valley are showing surface temps in the 90s with monster T/Td spreads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 Can see the CF and DL very well defined here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 Moisture convergence outlining the CF and DL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 18Z OUN sounding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Your CWA being ft worth? Nope...San Angelo. We're 20 miles south of Wichita Falls right now. Cu field trying to go up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Coming up to s ok or staying 20 miles south of Wichita Falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Severe t'storm warning in NE for quarter size hail...Temps in the 20's with snow. Lo ****ing l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Sitting in Lawton...Watching and waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Severe t'storm warning in NE for quarter size hail...Temps in the 20's with snow. Actually, it's freezing rain. There is a nasty ice storm going on in a narrow strip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Sitting in Lawton...Watching and waiting. Where ya at? I'm sitting at the Loves a few miles north of town off I-44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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