patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Former KOCO met on FB isn't impressed with tomorrow at all for OKC. Newest model data coming in, jives with the prior. A few severe storms breaking out along the dryline near hwy 183. For a couple of hours these supercells will produce damaging hail/wind as they move towards I-35. The cold front will quickly approach from the NW and will undercut the storms killing off their supply of warm/unstable air at the surface limiting their severity quite a bit. That means the developing squall line won't be as intense either. Still pockets of hail/wind but not a widespread event. Any isolated tornado threat is very small and would be early with those supercells that develop. Storms would move into the OKC area anytime after 4:30pm. The front should be in close to 7pm. Not sure what he's seeing. Any supercell that forms ahead of the line will have a tornado potential. I wouldn't call the threat "very small". The data and SPC seem to disagree with him...as does the Norman office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Not sure what he's seeing. Any supercell that forms ahead of the line will have a tornado potential. I wouldn't call the threat "very small". The data and SPC seem to disagree with him...as does the Norman office. It seems like the hip thing in social media today for broadcast mets is to either play down or hype up a severe threat as much as possible. No middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 EMC WRF has a pretty active evening/overnight. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Pulling the trigger and flying down to OKC in the morning. Early target area will probably be somewhere in S. OK, along/south of I-40. Hoping for some sustained discrete activity before the cold pool sweeps in from the NW and under-cuts activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 EMC WRF has a pretty active evening/overnight. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Impressive echo tops being generated on those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Pulling the trigger and flying down to OKC in the morning. Early target area will probably be somewhere in S. OK, along/south of I-40. Hoping for some sustained discrete activity before the cold pool sweeps in from the NW and under-cuts activity. how do you buy a cheap plane ticket last minute lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Pulling the trigger and flying down to OKC in the morning. Early target area will probably be somewhere in S. OK, along/south of I-40. Hoping for some sustained discrete activity before the cold pool sweeps in from the NW and under-cuts activity. You getting a rental car? If it wasn't that much more for you...fly into SJT...and you can ride with me and a friend/co-worker from the office. Our target is Wichita Falls as a setup spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 still debating on going down there or save $ for a trip later in the season....Wichita Falls to Chickasha, OK to Ardmore, ok would be my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 still debating on going down there or save $ for a trip later in the season....Wichita Falls to Chickasha, OK to Ardmore, ok would be my area LOL. That's our initial "target triangle". We will re-access when there...but I've been thinking Lawton to Ardmore as an eventual spot. Probably Lawton as I wanna stay about 40 miles east of the dryline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 LOL. Thats my initial "target triangle". We will re-asses when there...but I've been thinking Lawton to Ardmore as an eventual spot. Probably Lawton as I wanna stay about 40 miles east of the dryline. That's what I'm thinking as well. That's a quick shot down Interstate 44 from OUN. I'm worried about the LLJ being displaced to the east, but am hoping that we're dealing with a more discrete/line segment mode versus a completely linear event. At least I get to sleep in since it's a 90 minute drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 That's what I'm thinking as well. That's a quick shot down Interstate 44 from OUN. I'm worried about the LLJ being displaced to the east, but am hoping that we're dealing with a more discrete/line segment mode versus a completely linear event. At least I get to sleep in since it's a 90 minute drive. Well happy hunting to us and anyone else. We'll be in a 2012 Mazda 3. I thought about taking the 4x4 but gonna go with the better gas MPG vehicle. BTW...too bad I didn't get my edit in before your comment...on my wording error...oh well...uugghh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 New Day 1 is out: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 how do you buy a cheap plane ticket last minute lol? Connections ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 You getting a rental car? If it wasn't that much more for you...fly into SJT...and you can ride with me and a friend/co-worker from the office. Our target is Wichita Falls as a setup spot. Actually me and my partner for the day already have a cheap rental lined up in OKC. Thanks for the offer though, maybe we'll see you out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 Day 2 has a 45% area, but not hatched, and therefore still only slight risk. I'm not sure I've seen that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Actually me and my partner for the day already have a cheap rental lined up in OKC. Thanks for the offer though, maybe we'll see you out there! Anytime. If you're ever debating send me a msg...and if I don't have to work is np. I could even swing by DFW to save you $$$$. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Day 2 has a 45% area, but not hatched, and therefore still only slight risk. I'm not sure I've seen that before I also thought 45% meant there had to be a moderate risk, until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Day 2 has a 45% area, but not hatched, and therefore still only slight risk. I'm not sure I've seen that before It appears they don't think the progged intensity of the convection warrants the sig-hatched at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Day 2 has a 45% area, but not hatched, and therefore still only slight risk. I'm not sure I've seen that before I can't think of dates but I don't believe it's that rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 around 3 1/2 hour drive to chickasha, ok.......... IM gonna go ahead and go there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 I'm staying right in Norman, and watching what happens from here. I see no reason to go anywhere far right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Day 2 has a 45% area, but not hatched, and therefore still only slight risk. I'm not sure I've seen that before I think I have once or twice and each time it was upgraded and verified mod risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Interesting day tomorrow. Good luck to all the chasers going out. A lot of the models seem to hint at a weakness in the low level wind field just east of the dryline, but the environment becomes increasingly more favorable from I-35 east. Relatively dry LCL-LFC RH's (especially in the latest RAP) may also limit coverage, but then again that may be a good thing for the chasers. I for one and highly interested in seeing if some supercells can fire along the dryline and make it east ahead of the cold front. Talk about a narrow window of opportunity. Will be watching with a close eye up here in snowy Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 Some NSSL WRF weather porn. This is just one of a series of cells with strong updraft helicity that develops and tracks through central OK. Can see the favored path of cells training over central OK with total QPF >2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Nose of the THETA-E advection right about where the dryline is forecast to be around 3pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lowleveljet Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/13040912_OBS/ 12z OUN sounding..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 13z Day 1 outlook down to 5% tor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Well that didn't last long. 10% areas seem to get dropped fairly often as of late. Wonder what the change of thinking was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Well that didn't last long. 10% areas seem to get dropped fairly often as of late. Wonder what the change of thinking was. Given the surging front, the displaced LLJ, and the strong capping the warm sector ahead of the front, I think the 5% is valid. This setup doesn't look very good for tornadoes IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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