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End of the Week Miller A threat


IsentropicLift

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I like big rain storms, not sure why some people aren't interested unless it's snowing outside. March 2010 was about as exciting of a storm as I can remember and it was all rain.

Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't the JMA mostly been showing big hits when the GFS/NAM have also been? I still feel like the Euro not being onboard is a huge red flag (unless the ensembles are showing something else)

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Big hit for rain? lol

I like big rain storms, not sure why some people aren't interested unless it's snowing outside. March 2010 was about as exciting of a storm as I can remember and it was all rain.

Don't get me wrong man, I do too. I like a big nor'easter either way. Just thought some were thinking this would be some snow.

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Assuming we actually get the coastal (12z GFS already coming in much more amped up down south) anybody have any idea what we're looking at regarding surface winds? My knowledge of jet dynamics is much to be desired.

looking @ 850mb is a good place to start to look @ the LLJ and surface wind/gusts potential. Going off the 6z GFS, the best jet dynamics stay offshore:

3ajaharu.jpg

there will prob be more wind on the backside of this thing as the lp strengthens in the canadian maritimes and HP builds in from the west.

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Pretty large improvements on the 12z GFS in terms of organization of the coasta itself. It was a lot more organized this run. The deformation banding kisses NYC hr 75-81. Assuming this makes a last minute jog NW that would be enough to get the job done. The GFS has well in excess of 1.5" of rain just offshore this run.

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looking @ 850mb is a good place to start to look @ the LLJ and surface wind/gusts potential. Going off the 6z GFS, the best jet dynamics stay offshore:

 

What about the 12z NAM/GFS? Both models made quite a shift this run.

 

Edit: Looking at 850mb winds and comparing the 06z GFS to 12z GFS, the strong winds just shifted over 100 miles closer to the coast and stronger.

 

06z

GFS_850mbHgtWind_na_f90.png?1364896539

 

12z

GFS_850mbHgtWind_na_f81.png?1364917912

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looking @ 850mb is a good place to start to look @ the LLJ and surface wind/gusts potential. Going off the 6z GFS, the best jet dynamics stay offshore:

What about the 12z NAM/GFS? Both models made quite a shift this run.

Edit: Looking at 850mb winds and comparing the 06z GFS to 12z GFS, the strong winds just shifted over 100 miles closer to the coast and stronger.

06z

12z

WEll you've answered your own question.

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Without more phasing, the pressure gradient and jet stream dynamics are pretty weak on the western side of this system. I don't see a significant amount of rain or wind for the coastal areas, if NAM or GFS storm tracks were to verify.

I didn't bother looking at the NAM because as we all know it's useless, but the GFS did make a pretty far jump west with the better dynamics and precip. We still have a few days to go.

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We are visiting NYC for first time starting Thursday. We have a walking tour scheduled for 10-4 Friday followed by visiting the 9/11 memorial and a ride on Staten island ferry. Are the euro and gfs both showing heavy rain and wind Friday?

Thanks!

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We are visiting NYC for first time starting Thursday. We have a walking tour scheduled for 10-4 Friday followed by visiting the 9/11 memorial and a ride on Staten island ferry. Are the euro and gfs both showing heavy rain and wind Friday? Thanks!

 

 

Make sure you wear your seat belt... ;) 

 

lol..

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