IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 Hard to tell because of the 24 hour panels but it looks like the 12z JMA was a big hit once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Hard to tell because of the 24 hour panels but it looks like the 12z JAM was a big hit once again. Big hit for rain? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 Big hit for rain? lol I like big rain storms, not sure why some people aren't interested unless it's snowing outside. March 2010 was about as exciting of a storm as I can remember and it was all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 I like big rain storms, not sure why some people aren't interested unless it's snowing outside. March 2010 was about as exciting of a storm as I can remember and it was all rain. Correct me if I'm wrong but hasn't the JMA mostly been showing big hits when the GFS/NAM have also been? I still feel like the Euro not being onboard is a huge red flag (unless the ensembles are showing something else) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Big hit for rain? lol I like big rain storms, not sure why some people aren't interested unless it's snowing outside. March 2010 was about as exciting of a storm as I can remember and it was all rain. Don't get me wrong man, I do too. I like a big nor'easter either way. Just thought some were thinking this would be some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 To be fair, any storm from this point forward is 99% likely to be all rain so I'll embrace any storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 2, 2013 Author Share Posted April 2, 2013 Of course the 12z NAM nails us with the coastal, over 1" of rain for NYC. Much more south and west. It shifted over 100 miles NW this run with the precip. What a model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 2, 2013 Author Share Posted April 2, 2013 Assuming we actually get the coastal (12z GFS already coming in much more amped up down south) anybody have any idea what we're looking at regarding surface winds? My knowledge of jet dynamics is much to be desired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Assuming we actually get the coastal (12z GFS already coming in much more amped up down south) anybody have any idea what we're looking at regarding surface winds? My knowledge of jet dynamics is much to be desired.looking @ 850mb is a good place to start to look @ the LLJ and surface wind/gusts potential. Going off the 6z GFS, the best jet dynamics stay offshore: there will prob be more wind on the backside of this thing as the lp strengthens in the canadian maritimes and HP builds in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 2, 2013 Author Share Posted April 2, 2013 Pretty large improvements on the 12z GFS in terms of organization of the coasta itself. It was a lot more organized this run. The deformation banding kisses NYC hr 75-81. Assuming this makes a last minute jog NW that would be enough to get the job done. The GFS has well in excess of 1.5" of rain just offshore this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 2, 2013 Author Share Posted April 2, 2013 looking @ 850mb is a good place to start to look @ the LLJ and surface wind/gusts potential. Going off the 6z GFS, the best jet dynamics stay offshore: What about the 12z NAM/GFS? Both models made quite a shift this run. Edit: Looking at 850mb winds and comparing the 06z GFS to 12z GFS, the strong winds just shifted over 100 miles closer to the coast and stronger. 06z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 looking @ 850mb is a good place to start to look @ the LLJ and surface wind/gusts potential. Going off the 6z GFS, the best jet dynamics stay offshore: What about the 12z NAM/GFS? Both models made quite a shift this run. Edit: Looking at 850mb winds and comparing the 06z GFS to 12z GFS, the strong winds just shifted over 100 miles closer to the coast and stronger. 06z 12z WEll you've answered your own question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 Without more phasing, the pressure gradient and jet stream dynamics are pretty weak on the western side of this system. I don't see a significant amount of rain or wind for the coastal areas, if NAM or GFS storm tracks were to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 2, 2013 Author Share Posted April 2, 2013 Without more phasing, the pressure gradient and jet stream dynamics are pretty weak on the western side of this system. I don't see a significant amount of rain or wind for the coastal areas, if NAM or GFS storm tracks were to verify. I didn't bother looking at the NAM because as we all know it's useless, but the GFS did make a pretty far jump west with the better dynamics and precip. We still have a few days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 We are visiting NYC for first time starting Thursday. We have a walking tour scheduled for 10-4 Friday followed by visiting the 9/11 memorial and a ride on Staten island ferry. Are the euro and gfs both showing heavy rain and wind Friday? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted April 2, 2013 Share Posted April 2, 2013 We are visiting NYC for first time starting Thursday. We have a walking tour scheduled for 10-4 Friday followed by visiting the 9/11 memorial and a ride on Staten island ferry. Are the euro and gfs both showing heavy rain and wind Friday? Thanks! Make sure you wear your seat belt... lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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