IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Both the 00z GGEM and 06z GFS have a strong low pressure system forming down in the southern gulf states and then up the Atlantic Coast. Very heavy rain and strong gusty winds appear to be the main threats. The 00z ECMWF also has this storm but not to the extent of the GGEM or the GFS. Here is the GGEM from last night for this coming Friday and the 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 Just taking a quick look at the 06z GEFS mean, looks like the GGEM tracking strong low pressure from southern GA off the Mid-Atlantic Coast just south of us and then over the benchmark. It's amazing how strong the agreement is when it's all rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 April showers y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 The euro is not that wound up and just brushes the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 I hope we get some good rain. With the warmth that will follow, Spring should really explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Until the euro has this, it's not a threat, IMO. Euro has always been weak and sheared with a brush of about .25"-.50" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 The end of the 12z NAM run is very amped up as well. Looks to be in the GFS/GGEM camp. No idea what the 00z JMA showed since I only have it out to 72 hours but the 12z run yesterday was pretty amped up. 2"+ line right over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Until the euro has this, it's not a threat, IMO. Euro has always been weak and sheared with a brush of about .25"-.50" of precip. I have to agree with this. The Euro was spot on with most of the recent storms we've had, and it really never caved to the American models when they were amped for the march 8th and 25th systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 The end of the 12z NAM run is very amped up as well. Looks to be in the GFS/GGEM camp. No idea what the 00z JMA showed since I only have it out to 72 hours but the 12z run yesterday was pretty amped up. 2"+ line right over NYC. There really is no reason to look at the nam, until something is done to it. Esp at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 There really is no reason to look at the nam, until something is done to it. Esp at 84 hrs Whatever, I realize that a lot of folks are going to bash this threat because it's not going to be a snow maker, but to me a really wrapped up windy rainer is rather exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 The 12z GFS is coming in even more amped up through hr 75. Low pressure forming near New Orleans. It's to bad their is no northern stream involement at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Unless the euro gets exited about this, no reason for me to more than.mildly interested. Maybe ive fi nally learned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 Monster run incoming on the 12z GFS in terms of wind and rain. Sitting right over Willmington, NC at hr 99, rain moving into our area by hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Whatever, I realize that a lot of folks are going to bash this threat because it's not going to be a snow maker, but to me a really wrapped up windy rainer is rather exciting. I'm not bashing anything. All I'm saying is the nam should not be look at, until something is fix with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 It would be a big time early spring snow maker if we could get some northern stream interaction for interior areas with elevation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Monster run incoming on the 12z GFS in terms of wind and rain. Sitting right over Willmington, NC at hr 99, rain moving into our area by hr 96. It's a tick west away from being a big rainmaker for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 It would be a big time early spring snow maker if we could get some northern stream interaction for interior areas with elevation Yeah it's pretty amazing that their is a total lack of northern stream vorts. It's not like a case of missing the phase, their is no vort to phase in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 It's a tick west away from being a big rainmaker for the area You're right, the heaviest rain stays just offshore. This run was more amped up down south though, it just moves off the NC coast a bit to far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Whatever, I realize that a lot of folks are going to bash this threat because it's not going to be a snow maker, but to me a really wrapped up windy rainer is rather exciting. What? nobody's bashing it. We're saying we've been burned many times going with the GFS/NAM over the euro and that wouldn't be a wise move. Btw nobodys even talking about yesterdays huge bust because it was just a boring rain maker. Most models had at least .3" or more and we got less than 1/3 that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 What? nobody's bashing it. We're saying we've been burned many times going with the GFS/NAM over the euro and that wouldn't be a wise move. Btw nobodys even talking about yesterdays huge bust because it was just a boring rain maker. Most models had at least .3" or more and we got less than 1/3 that. I didn't measure but in my backyard it rained steadily from about 3:30 till well after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 I didn't measure but in my backyard it rained steadily from about 3:30 till well after dark. NB managed .14, EWR .09, NYC .08, Sussex .07, CDW .17, SMQ .16. Generally what would have been a 3 to 5 forecasted event would have been an inch to 2 in spots. Not a huge bust but shouldn't be dismissed just because it wasn't a snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 NB managed .14, EWR .09, NYC .08, Sussex .07, CDW .17, SMQ .16. Generally what would have been a 3 to 5 forecasted event would have been an inch to 2 in spots. Not a huge bust but shouldn't be dismissed just because it wasn't a snow event. What did blm get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 What did blm get? Not sure where to find that, but Lakehurst did get .32, substantially higher. Of course their temps have been running warm too so any measurement coming out there is suspect at this point. TTN had .22 and ACY .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Not sure where to find that, but Lakehurst did get .32, substantially higher. Of course their temps have been running warm too so any measurement coming out there is suspect at this point. TTN had .22 and ACY .25 I was down that way to visit family, it seemed to rain pretty good in the afternoon. I would not be surprise if that was correct. I wonder what isotherms received in the bucket Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Mild ahead of the front, up to 62F in old bridge. Some chilly days coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 I was down that way to visit family, it seemed to rain pretty good in the afternoon. I would not be surprise if that was correct. I wonder what isotherms received in the bucket I thought so too. I was surprised to see such low totals out of ewr and nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Yeah it's pretty amazing that their is a total lack of northern stream vorts. It's not like a case of missing the phase, their is no vort to phase in. GFS phases the northern vort on this run between hours 108 and 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 New 12z GGEM shifted a tad east, looks like the 12z GFS FWIW but a tad further west. The heavy precip makes it about as far west as extreme NE NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 12z GEFS mean is in good agreement with the 12z op. Still quite a large spread in terms of timing but a track towards the benchmark is pretty well agreed upon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 1, 2013 Author Share Posted April 1, 2013 12z Euro still wants nothing to do with this threat. Despite being quite amplified and having the storm down south it remains a mess up the coast. We do get brushed by some precip overnight on Friday but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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