Deck Pic Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 April is a tricky warmth month. Cool air is always lurking close by from several sources. Get good easterly fetch and 850's don't even matter anymore. Get a cloudy day and it cancels a torch. A modest but subtle push of lower heights out of canada and everything changes. I kind of alluded to this in my post in the disco thread. Unless there's a solid trough out west or some sort of stable se ridge then it's really hard to get 4+ days of solid + departures this month. I love 50's and low 60's. You'll never hear me complain. yes..i think today is a good portend what happens without large scale features in our favor...and pretty much every factor is adverse right now...this isn't summer when we can hit low 90s under the most adverse conditions....I'll go ahead and take the under on MOS next week for all 5 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 April is a tricky warmth month. Cool air is always lurking close by from several sources. Get good easterly fetch and 850's don't even matter anymore. Get a cloudy day and it cancels a torch. A modest but subtle push of lower heights out of canada and everything changes. I kind of alluded to this in my post in the disco thread. Unless there's a solid trough out west or some sort of stable se ridge then it's really hard to get 4+ days of solid + departures this month. I love 50's and low 60's. You'll never hear me complain. A western trough and SE ridge looks exactly like what's setting up for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randy Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 the ground is white here. 31 degrees. giant snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 A western trough and SE ridge looks exactly like what's setting up for next week. Euro says no to the se ridge part. It's all convoluted. Euro has a big nasty ULL up north between the maritimes and greeland towards the end of the run and a big strong surface HP in central canada and really cold pool of 850's se of hudson bay in the middle of next week. If I had to pick sides on which features are going to win between the gfs/euro, I'm thinking just like zwyts. We may have a warm day or 2 but it will be bookended by aob. April temp battleground is looking fierce next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 yeah...saw pics from blacksburg....any stickage? Sticking to dirt patches/grass and elevated surfaces. Some sleet mixing in too and it's trying to get icy on some of the sidewalks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Euro says no to the se ridge part. It's all convoluted. Euro has a big nasty ULL up north between the maritimes and greeland towards the end of the run and a big strong surface HP in central canada and really cold pool of 850's se of hudson bay in the middle of next week. If I had to pick sides on which features are going to win between the gfs/euro, I'm thinking just like zwyts. We may have a warm day or 2 but it will be bookended by aob. April temp battleground is looking fierce next week. Just looked at the extended euro...its solution will indeed put the MA in the battleground. Tough forecast week if that works out, temp wise. Ukie is warm like the gfs, canadian leaning towards the EC, on the cooler side. As usual, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Pretty cool pics on 81 south of Roanoke towards Pulaski, even interstate starting to cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randy Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 heavy snow now with an inch on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Pretty cool pics on 81 south of Roanoke towards Pulaski, even interstate starting to cover yes...total pummeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 SN+ It's just ripping right now. Completely unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Everyone gonna melt You sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 SN+ It's just ripping right now. Completely unexpected. Both the NAM and the GFS had some snow for Roanoke over the past several model runs. Looks like Blacksburg was playing catch-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Both the NAM and the GFS had some snow for Roanoke over the past several model runs. Looks like Blacksburg was playing catch-up. Shows you how much I've looked at the models the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 euro had nada.. terrible model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Baro way up there Temps. went from 52 at 5:30 to 32 at 11:30. Too bad precip couldn't get in tonight. Even with a miracle cloud up at exactly the right time we will still get to 45F at the coolest for a high. Won't work but man it feels mid Jan cold out there right now. I'll be darn about my snow musings. It's not snowing right in DC but two hours away it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 NWS goes 1-3 entire CWA except easter. 12z models did have the snows-- both GFS and NAM. Stupid HRR is slow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 euro had nada.. terrible model It seems to be at odds with what it thinks will happen next week. One warm, next, not so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Shows you how much I've looked at the models the past few days. Model data has been shakey at best. If I snag 3 inches I'm at climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 I'll be darn about my snow musings. It's not snowing right in DC but two hours away it is. Seems to me if the atmosphere will support snow down there, it would support it here as well. Of course, most of those places are 2000+ feet elevation. I suppose if one were to drive up into the mountains tonight, you'd probably see some snow, if any precip makes it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 It seems to be at odds with what it thinks will happen next week. One warm, next, not so warm. Prob be a teaser week. We'll get that really really awesome warm day, crave more like it, and then chew on a big bag of cloudy 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 This is time of year where get huge high temp busts. Models have idea high anchors Bermuda like and we get 70's. Instead a east-ene flow develops and it's tough to crack 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 NWS goes 1-3 entire CWA except easter. 12z models did have the snows-- both GFS and NAM. Stupid HRR is slow today. Already seeing reports of 2-3" in the New River Valley/Blacksburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 45 here-- few sleet pellets and now it's snowing. Temp rapid drop to 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Already seeing reports of 2-3" in the New River Valley/Blacksburg area. I was in Roanoke when the sleet started and a co worker was in NRV.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Model data has been shakey at best. If I snag 3 inches I'm at climo. Just started falling in last 15 minutes here, same if I get 3.0 at seasonal average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Just heavy sleet now.. Soundings are a smidge colder WEST of me, we may be mainly sleet. HUGE sleet bouncing off cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 that area is winter heaven lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted April 4, 2013 Share Posted April 4, 2013 Several WSW issued for counties in the NRV. Seen some 4" amounts already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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