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April Obs/Banter


WxUSAF

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I'm curious.. Where did this graph come from? I'd like to graph my solar radiation (and others) on something more visually appealing than the Cumulus graphs.

 

So, I run a php script (I didn't make it) on my website that pulls my data off of weather underground (which is uploaded via cumulus) and plots it. Send me a PM if you want you want more info. :)

http://www.wxmeddler.com/wxstation/

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Spoke too soon about the lack of cutoff lows this spring... maybe one stalled out over the area next week?  If so, cooler and cloudy, dreary.  Meh. 

 

Really thinking May is going to be below normal, maybe significantly so.  Seems to be a repeating pattern, so I wouldn't be shocked to see summer cooler than normal here, but that can be tough to do in our area.

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Spoke too soon about the lack of cutoff lows this spring... maybe one stalled out over the area next week?  If so, cooler and cloudy, dreary.  Meh. 

 

Really thinking May is going to be below normal, maybe significantly so.  Seems to be a repeating pattern, so I wouldn't be shocked to see summer cooler than normal here, but that can be tough to do in our area.

 

I don't mind dreary days so much if I'm at work.  But I want nice weather on the weekends.

 

Summers can't be hotter than normal all the time, so that pattern has to break sometime.

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Is it meteorologically impossible to get a -10 month?  How about getting one in July, Dec, and Jan?  Would I be asking too much?

In July...pretty much impossible.  Probably not impossible in December and January, but so unlikely it might as well be, especially in the new climate regime.  

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Spoke too soon about the lack of cutoff lows this spring... maybe one stalled out over the area next week?  If so, cooler and cloudy, dreary.  Meh. 

 

Really thinking May is going to be below normal, maybe significantly so.  Seems to be a repeating pattern, so I wouldn't be shocked to see summer cooler than normal here, but that can be tough to do in our area.

This correlation also applies to the Washington DC area, a cold May favors above average temperatures during the summer. However the April departures are not significantly above normal.

 

30dTDeptUS.png

 

This coincides with the temp departure inverse correlation for the Northeast, that is, cooler than normal May's tend to precede hot summers in our area, and vice versa. Generally the tendency is warm April --> warm summer, cool May --> warm summer, cool April --> cool summer. April tends to be positively correlated and May negatively correlated w/ summer temps.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39654-the-amount-of-may-blocking-and-summer-temperatures-in-nyc/

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december 1989 was the last one

 

The standard dev of DCA temps in December is about 4F. The 1971-2000 (I chose this base period since '89 falls very close to the center of it) mean December temp at DCA was 39.5F. 1989 was 27.9F which means it was nearly a 3 sigma event at -11.6F departure. That is sick.

For 1981-2010 normals, its actually quite similar...just under a 3 sigma event with the mean Dec temp 39.7F vs 39.5F.

A January -10F should be easier to get than a December -10 as January would require about a -2.2 sigma event since it has a higher standard dev than December. Shows just how obscene that December 1989 was.

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The standard dev of DCA temps in December is about 4F. The 1971-2000 (I chose this base period since '89 falls very close to the center of it) mean December temp at DCA was 39.5F. 1989 was 27.9F which means it was nearly a 3 sigma event at -11.6F departure. That is sick.

For 1981-2010 normals, its actually quite similar...just under a 3 sigma event with the mean Dec temp 39.7F vs 39.5F.

A January -10F should be easier to get than a December -10 as January would require about a -2.2 sigma event since it has a higher standard dev than December. Shows just how obscene that December 1989 was.

 

Jan/Feb of 1990 weren't a lot of fun IIRC.

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What an absolutely fantastic spring day.

Yes sir, that it is.  What an awesome spring so far.  A cold and snowy March (relatively), a mostly sunny and mild April.  Now all we need is a cooler than average May, with plenty of precip but lots of sunny days and we are set.

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I have to work on this paper but I have the window open and I'm trying to absorb as much sunshine as I can. Next week (and most likely the week after as well) is going to suck... badly.

A few days of rain here and there always appreciated especially when you consider what July is like.

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