April Obs/Banter

[FrederickWX]

I had to flip the heat back on in the house this morning. It was a bit too chilly getting dressed.

Still nice wx coming up for the next couple days.

I also have had to flip our heat on the last three mornings.  Ridiculously cold in the mornings recently.  Average high is 70 degrees and more this week.  Looks below normal the rest of the month.

[FrederickWX]

Interesting how much cold air has been around this spring.  I see that Denver is getting another snow storm.  Not unusual for them this time of year, but the number of snowstorms and the amount of cold air has been remarkable.  I think they've shattered some record lows the last few weeks.

 

What do you guys think of May?  At least the first half for us seems at or a little below normal for temps.  Not seeing any sustained heat signals so far.

[Deck Pic]

Interesting how much cold air has been around this spring.  I see that Denver is getting another snow storm.  Not unusual for them this time of year, but the number of snowstorms and the amount of cold air has been remarkable.  I think they've shattered some record lows the last few weeks.

 

What do you guys think of May?  At least the first half for us seems at or a little below normal for temps.  Not seeing any sustained heat signals so far.

 

 

I'd probably go equal chances, though persistence says above based on the last 3 May's...we tend to cluster in 3's so this could be the flip year..we haven't had a super cold May since 2005....a lot depends on cloud cover and rain...I'd guess it is our cloudiest month of the year....but I don't know that...maybe someone has those stats...so...equal chances

[MN Transplant]

Interesting how much cold air has been around this spring.  I see that Denver is getting another snow storm.  Not unusual for them this time of year, but the number of snowstorms and the amount of cold air has been remarkable.  I think they've shattered some record lows the last few weeks.

 

What do you guys think of May?  At least the first half for us seems at or a little below normal for temps.  Not seeing any sustained heat signals so far.

 

Going to snow again in Minneapolis this evening.  The pattern up there is going to break by this weekend, but it has been nasty and locked in place.

 

[Deck Pic]

Going to snow again in Minneapolis this evening.  The pattern up there is going to break by this weekend, but it has been nasty and locked in place.

 

MonthTDeptUS.png

 

Chicago had their latest measurable since 1989 I believe...0.1 at ORD, but my friend sent me pics from Wicker Park near downtown and looked like about 0.5" on cartops

[Ellinwood]

I'd probably go equal chances, though persistence says above based on the last 3 May's...we tend to cluster in 3's so this could be the flip year..we haven't had a super cold May since 2005....a lot depends on cloud cover and rain...I'd guess it is our cloudiest month of the year....but I don't know that...maybe someone has those stats...so...equal chances

I would agree with equal chances, if not leaning towards the warm side. Our region is one of the few areas that are above normal for April and will probably finish that way. The start of May looks mostly variable in the eastern U.S. and could lean a little in either direction but probably not towards any extremes.

What concerns me with the warm risks is the upper-level ridge that is starting to show up in May over the central U.S. (on the European Ensemble). As we get deeper into May, the large scale wavelengths start to get longer again, which could allow the central U.S. ridging to expand eastward if it does indeed develop and sustain itself. However, with storm tracks as favorable as they have been recently, it would seem a more variable pattern across the central and eastern U.S. is more likely at this time. Teleconnections have been shaky and are giving off mixed signals in the medium to long range, so forecast confidence is meager at best.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Average last sub-32 is right around now, but the average last hard freeze (sub-28) is around April 7.  A freeze sucks for gardeners and can cause decent damage, but hard freezes are out to destroy all the hard work they put into getting their plants ready for the spring and summer.

 

I've never thought there was a real rush on planting, other than just the itch to do it.  Wait until early May and you won't likely have problems.  Plant early and you risk just what you mentioned.

[Ian]

The only thing that matters is that we get a EC ridge to lock in about the third week of May. Before that it can snow for all I care.

[FrederickWX]

I'd probably go equal chances, though persistence says above based on the last 3 May's...we tend to cluster in 3's so this could be the flip year..we haven't had a super cold May since 2005....a lot depends on cloud cover and rain...I'd guess it is our cloudiest month of the year....but I don't know that...maybe someone has those stats...so...equal chances

That's interesting.  I wouldn't have pegged May as being our cloudiest month of the year, but it's possible.  My guess would be April for the cloudiest month, what with cutoff lows and backdoor fronts during the early spring.

 

One thing I've noticed so far this spring (and I hope I'm not jinxing things) - to this point, we have not had cutoff lows meandering over us for days like we sometimes do in the spring.  One of those can easily give us a week of clouds and below normal temps in the spring.  We also haven't had too much in the way of fronts getting stuck over our area.  Even the backdoor fronts have come through (or pushed back north) pretty quickly.  One of the sunnier April's we have had, I think.

[Bob Chill]

Going to snow again in Minneapolis this evening.  The pattern up there is going to break by this weekend, but it has been nasty and locked in place.

 

 

 

April behaved pretty predictably once the intense blocking pattern finally broke down. Heat came on quicker than we thought but the lw pattern in the east was typical following a long duration strong blocking event. 

 

March broke the record for the AO since coming in @ -3.176. The previous was set in 1962 @ -2.848. 

 

My wag would be a good mix going forward into mid may with the averages coming in close to normal. There are some indications on it actually being cooler than normal but it's awful tough to hedge that way in May in DC. 

[mattie g]

I'd probably go equal chances, though persistence says above based on the last 3 May's...we tend to cluster in 3's so this could be the flip year..we haven't had a super cold May since 2005....a lot depends on cloud cover and rain...I'd guess it is our cloudiest month of the year....but I don't know that...maybe someone has those stats...so...equal chances

 

Per http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/cldy.html (stats are only through 2002):

 

On average, May at National Airport has seven clear days, 10 partly cloudy days, and 14 cloudy days, which is tied with July for the most non-clear days.  In terms of months, here's the breakdown of non-clear days (total [PC, cloudy]):

 

Jan: 23 (7, 16)

Feb: 22 (7, 15)

Mar: 23 (8, 15)

Apr: 23 (9, 14)

May: 24 (10, 14)

Jun: 22 (11, 11)

Jul: 24 (12, 12)

Aug: 22 (10, 12)

Sep: 20 (8, 12)

Oct: 20 (8, 12)

Nov: 22 (8, 14)

Dec: 23 (7, 16)

 

There are a few months that don't add up to the correct number of days in the month, so I don't know how reliable these stats are.  And I'm also not sure exactly what constitutes clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy.  I wonder if Rodney would know...

[Deck Pic]

Per http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/cldy.html (stats are only through 2002):

 

On average, May at National Airport has seven clear days, 10 partly cloudy days, and 14 cloudy days, which is tied with July for the most non-clear days.  In terms of months, here's the breakdown of non-clear days (total [PC, cloudy]):

 

Jan: 23 (7, 16)

Feb: 22 (7, 15)

Mar: 23 (8, 15)

Apr: 23 (9, 14)

May: 24 (10, 14)

Jun: 22 (11, 11)

Jul: 24 (12, 12)

Aug: 22 (10, 12)

Sep: 20 (8, 12)

Oct: 20 (8, 12)

Nov: 22 (8, 14)

Dec: 23 (7, 16)

 

There are a few months that don't add up to the correct number of days in the month, so I don't know how reliable these stats are.  And I'm also not sure exactly what constitutes clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy.  I wonder if Rodney would know...

 

 

thx..looks like there is not much separation between months

[FrederickWX]

I would agree with equal chances, if not leaning towards the warm side. Our region is one of the few areas that are above normal for April and will probably finish that way. The start of May looks mostly variable in the eastern U.S. and could lean a little in either direction but probably not towards any extremes.

What concerns me with the warm risks is the upper-level ridge that is starting to show up in May over the central U.S. (on the European Ensemble). As we get deeper into May, the large scale wavelengths start to get longer again, which could allow the central U.S. ridging to expand eastward if it does indeed develop and sustain itself. However, with storm tracks as favorable as they have been recently, it would seem a more variable pattern across the central and eastern U.S. is more likely at this time. Teleconnections have been shaky and are giving off mixed signals in the medium to long range, so forecast confidence is meager at best.

"Variable" has been the story for April so far, but that's pretty typical.  We've had fewer above-normal days than below, but the above normal days have had a much larger deviation from average than the below days.

 

It'll be interesting to see if modeled central US ridging comes to pass, and if it becomes persistent.  That would certainly be a pattern change from what it has been the last several weeks for that part of the country.  If that is what sets up for summer, that would probably argue for some warmer than average here at times, but also some cooler shots.

[Deck Pic]

I don't really need to see  the sun at this point...my brain chemistry is adjusted to the sun angle...I am fine with epic cloud cover once our averages are mid 70s

[Deck Pic]

I would agree with equal chances, if not leaning towards the warm side. Our region is one of the few areas that are above normal for April and will probably finish that way. The start of May looks mostly variable in the eastern U.S. and could lean a little in either direction but probably not towards any extremes.

What concerns me with the warm risks is the upper-level ridge that is starting to show up in May over the central U.S. (on the European Ensemble). As we get deeper into May, the large scale wavelengths start to get longer again, which could allow the central U.S. ridging to expand eastward if it does indeed develop and sustain itself. However, with storm tracks as favorable as they have been recently, it would seem a more variable pattern across the central and eastern U.S. is more likely at this time. Teleconnections have been shaky and are giving off mixed signals in the medium to long range, so forecast confidence is meager at best.

 

 

It is extremely hard for us to go below in the summer as long as there is a drought in the plains

[Ian]

"Variable" has been the story for April so far, but that's pretty typical.  We've had fewer above-normal days than below, but the above normal days have had a much larger deviation from average than the below days.

 

It'll be interesting to see if modeled central US ridging comes to pass, and if it becomes persistent.  That would certainly be a pattern change from what it has been the last several weeks for that part of the country.  If that is what sets up for summer, that would probably argue for some warmer than average here at times, but also some cooler shots.

 

DCA has had 6 belows and IAD 7 thru yesterday. I think the last few springs have tainted people's thoughts about spring. When we get a random +20 people think that's what March/April is supposed to be. 

[FrederickWX]

DCA has had 6 belows and IAD 7 thru yesterday. I think the last few springs have tainted people's thoughts about spring. When we get a random +20 people think that's what March/April is supposed to be. 

I've had 9 up here (not counting days that were within a couple of degrees of average -  I count those as normal).  Outside of the first few days of April, what really stands out for me in April is that the above average days have had some pretty large deviations.  The 90 degree day on April 10 had a max 24 degrees above normal.  The three other days that week with "cooler" mid-80s each had maxes of 16-20 degrees above normal.  Even with the cooler days we have had, we're still well above normal for the month.  Even with the last few days of cooler weather and decent negative departures, and this weeks upcoming coolness, those large maxes a couple of weeks ago are going to make it hard to get back to average for the month.

[WxUSAF]

Sun is not far away, but we're still barely locked under the stratocu blanket.  I'd like it to warm up a bit before the Sun starts setting.  I'm going to the O's game tonight...going to be chilly.  

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Bob Chill]

12gfs says no to sustained heat through the entire run. If anything, it looks like the next couple weeks may be pretty nice overall (at least by my definition). 

 

There some periods of pronounced ne-e surfacce flow though. Some may not like that but I do. Anything except 80+ and humidity is great this time of year. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Per http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/cldy.html (stats are only through 2002):

 

On average, May at National Airport has seven clear days, 10 partly cloudy days, and 14 cloudy days, which is tied with July for the most non-clear days.  In terms of months, here's the breakdown of non-clear days (total [PC, cloudy]):

 

Jan: 23 (7, 16)

Feb: 22 (7, 15)

Mar: 23 (8, 15)

Apr: 23 (9, 14)

May: 24 (10, 14)

Jun: 22 (11, 11)

Jul: 24 (12, 12)

Aug: 22 (10, 12)

Sep: 20 (8, 12)

Oct: 20 (8, 12)

Nov: 22 (8, 14)

Dec: 23 (7, 16)

 

There are a few months that don't add up to the correct number of days in the month, so I don't know how reliable these stats are.  And I'm also not sure exactly what constitutes clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy.  I wonder if Rodney would know...

They shouldn't add up to the days in the month.  The pc and cloudy days should add up to the total of non-clear days.  According to the stats at the bottom, May would be 10 pc, 14 cloudy, 7 clear, just like you said, and just like the chart shows.

 

Edit:  I see what you mean.  I opened your link.  There's no issue on the Dulles stats, but the DCA numbers don't add up.  I guess that is par for the course on obs down there, huh?

[wxdude64]

DCA has had 6 belows and IAD 7 thru yesterday. I think the last few springs have tainted people's thoughts about spring. When we get a random +20 people think that's what March/April is supposed to be. 

Yep.

OK, here are NWS offices through 21st.

Office, departure, number days below, number days above, 'normal'*

DCA, +4.1, 6, 14, 1

IAD, +4.0, 6, 11, 4

CHO, +4.2, 6, 12, 3

LYN, +4.2, 6, 12, 3

ROA, +3.3, 7, 11, 3

BCB, +2.5, 7, 11, 3

As you can see, twice the number of aboves as compared to belows

for the month so far at all offices.

* I consider anything within 2 degrees of average + or - a 'normal' day.

[Avdave]

I had to flip the heat back on in the house this morning. It was a bit too chilly getting dressed.

Still nice wx coming up for the next couple days.

 

Shrinkage a problem huh?

[mappy]

I had to flip the heat back on in the house this morning. It was a bit too chilly getting dressed.

Still nice wx coming up for the next couple days.

Shrinkage a problem huh?

Perv

[Avdave]

Perv

   The door was left wide open on that one

[clueless]

12gfs says no to sustained heat through the entire run. If anything, it looks like the next couple weeks may be pretty nice overall (at least by my definition). 

 

There some periods of pronounced ne-e surfacce flow though. Some may not like that but I do. Anything except 80+ and humidity is great this time of year.

If we could have a stretch of 70s, that would be great.

[H2O]

 

Shrinkage a problem huh?

eyes were getting poked out

[wxdude64]

Almost 10 degrees warmer this am, 36.6 was the low, currently 38.1.

More cloud cover helped hold temps up.

[Deck Pic]

Kansas getting some 1/2 mi viz snow right now...I thought this might be one of the latest on record for my friend at KSU, but they had 7" on 5/26/1903...lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

Kansas getting some 1/2 mi viz snow right now...I thought this might be one of the latest on record for my friend at KSU, but they had 7" on 5/26/1903...lol

You should check out the traffic cameras around Denver.

[WxUSAF]

 I'm going to the O's game tonight...going to be chilly.  

 

Was quite cold at the O's last night.  Constant breeze and temps in the upper 40s.