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April Obs/Banter

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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FrederickWX

FrederickWX

Posted
Posted

DCA has had 6 belows and IAD 7 thru yesterday. I think the last few springs have tainted people's thoughts about spring. When we get a random +20 people think that's what March/April is supposed to be. 

I've had 9 up here (not counting days that were within a couple of degrees of average -  I count those as normal).  Outside of the first few days of April, what really stands out for me in April is that the above average days have had some pretty large deviations.  The 90 degree day on April 10 had a max 24 degrees above normal.  The three other days that week with "cooler" mid-80s each had maxes of 16-20 degrees above normal.  Even with the cooler days we have had, we're still well above normal for the month.  Even with the last few days of cooler weather and decent negative departures, and this weeks upcoming coolness, those large maxes a couple of weeks ago are going to make it hard to get back to average for the month.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

12gfs says no to sustained heat through the entire run. If anything, it looks like the next couple weeks may be pretty nice overall (at least by my definition). 

 

There some periods of pronounced ne-e surfacce flow though. Some may not like that but I do. Anything except 80+ and humidity is great this time of year. 

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

Per http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/online/ccd/cldy.html (stats are only through 2002):

 

On average, May at National Airport has seven clear days, 10 partly cloudy days, and 14 cloudy days, which is tied with July for the most non-clear days.  In terms of months, here's the breakdown of non-clear days (total [PC, cloudy]):

 

Jan: 23 (7, 16)

Feb: 22 (7, 15)

Mar: 23 (8, 15)

Apr: 23 (9, 14)

May: 24 (10, 14)

Jun: 22 (11, 11)

Jul: 24 (12, 12)

Aug: 22 (10, 12)

Sep: 20 (8, 12)

Oct: 20 (8, 12)

Nov: 22 (8, 14)

Dec: 23 (7, 16)

 

There are a few months that don't add up to the correct number of days in the month, so I don't know how reliable these stats are.  And I'm also not sure exactly what constitutes clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy.  I wonder if Rodney would know...

They shouldn't add up to the days in the month.  The pc and cloudy days should add up to the total of non-clear days.  According to the stats at the bottom, May would be 10 pc, 14 cloudy, 7 clear, just like you said, and just like the chart shows.

 

Edit:  I see what you mean.  I opened your link.  There's no issue on the Dulles stats, but the DCA numbers don't add up.  I guess that is par for the course on obs down there, huh?

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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted

DCA has had 6 belows and IAD 7 thru yesterday. I think the last few springs have tainted people's thoughts about spring. When we get a random +20 people think that's what March/April is supposed to be. 

Yep.

OK, here are NWS offices through 21st.

Office, departure, number days below, number days above, 'normal'*

DCA, +4.1, 6, 14, 1

IAD, +4.0, 6, 11, 4

CHO, +4.2, 6, 12, 3

LYN, +4.2, 6, 12, 3

ROA, +3.3, 7, 11, 3

BCB, +2.5, 7, 11, 3

As you can see, twice the number of aboves as compared to belows

for the month so far at all offices.

* I consider anything within 2 degrees of average + or - a 'normal' day.

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clueless

clueless

Posted
Posted

12gfs says no to sustained heat through the entire run. If anything, it looks like the next couple weeks may be pretty nice overall (at least by my definition). 

 

There some periods of pronounced ne-e surfacce flow though. Some may not like that but I do. Anything except 80+ and humidity is great this time of year.

If we could have a stretch of 70s, that would be great.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Always fun when these are in the zones

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC130 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2013VAZ053-232100-FAIRFAX-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIRFAX130 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2013.THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EAST WINDSAROUND 5 MPH. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLYCLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLVALUES AS LOW AS 103 BELOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OFTHUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTERMIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMINGNORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILLVALUES AS LOW AS 102 BELOW. .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO10 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 103 BELOW.
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wxdude64

wxdude64

Posted
Posted

 

Always fun when these are in the zones

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC130 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2013VAZ053-232100-FAIRFAX-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIRFAX130 PM EDT TUE APR 23 2013.THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. EAST WINDSAROUND 5 MPH. .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLYCLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO10 MPH...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND CHILLVALUES AS LOW AS 103 BELOW. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OFTHUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTERMIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMINGNORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. WIND CHILLVALUES AS LOW AS 102 BELOW. .THURSDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO10 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 103 BELOW.

Sounds like a delightful spring day and evening!

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Ellinwood

Ellinwood

Posted
Posted

IAD average high today - 70

DCA average high today - 69

That is interesting... a similar thing happens on 4/6. It could be very small rounding errors in the normalization, or maybe there's more years where the marine layer will kill DCA highs whereas Dulles evades it. In the long run though I agree DCA could/should probably be the warmer of the two.

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted

Matt is it possible at this time of year the cold water has something to do with it?  No water to help "hold down" temps at Dulles?

 

That is likely the reason why the temps in April probably (haven't verified) run the closest between the two sites.  But that doesn't explain why on April 6th and April 24th the average high at IAD bumps ahead of DCA despite no real indication that it should have.

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted

Just looked at IAD won in a few recent Aprils....maybe I am off base

 

No, DCA's highs for 81-10 were slightly warmer than IAD's (using daily data from both sites), but you wouldn't know that by looking at the official norms.  It is almost certainly something to do with how they homogenize the numbers.

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Bodhi Cove

Bodhi Cove

Posted
Posted

Beautiful day!

 

And the biopsies came back BENIGN!!! I don't have to wave goodbye to Thelma and Louise! 

I'd do a happy dance, but it would hurt too much right now. So instead I'm shouting out the happiness.

 

:thumbsup:               :D              :thumbsup:                        :D

 

*virtual happy dance*

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