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April Obs/Banter


WxUSAF

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0460 

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 

0134 PM CDT FRI APR 12 2013 

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...ERN NC AND SERN VA AND SRN MD 

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 121834Z - 122030Z 

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT 

SUMMARY...STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO ERN VA HAVE 

UNDERGONE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. A FEW STORMS 

MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...BUT 

ANY SEVERE EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO SPARSE FOR A WW. 

DISCUSSION...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 

HAVE UNDERGONE A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS 

INTO ERN VA IN RESPONSE TO A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY WITH 

TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE MOIST AXIS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS 

HAVE VEERED AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BUT STRONG SHEAR THROUGH 

THE 0-6 KM LAYER OF 35-45 KT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT IS THE MARGINAL 

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DRYING AND 

WARMING IN WAKE OF AN IMPULSE EJECTING THROUGH THE NERN STATES IS 

RESULTING IN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR DRY 

ENTRAINMENT WITHIN THE DEVELOPING UPDRAFTS. THESE FACTORS WILL 

PROBABLY CONTINUE TO LIMIT UPDRAFT VIGOR DESPITE A MOIST AND 

UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED 

STORMS. NEVERTHELESS A FEW OF THE STORMS MIGHT BECOME CAPABLE OF 

PRODUCING STRONG...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

..DIAL/KERR.. 04/12/2013 

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... 

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

 

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if you have a second, do you mind explaining what that map is and what it shows?  Those are cape values shown, obviously, but what about the nose tip near Winchester is important / noteable?  That bright sunshine is on tap?  What are the dashed blue lines?

 

a lot of times you'll get convection to fire near the nose of the moisture advection which pretty much lines up with the cape map.  im not exactly sure why to be honest but it works fairly often if you get storms to fire.

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