Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 0z Euro is "cold" the entire run...GFS is too...never gets us above 75-80 the entire run, and not really even that warm until the end....sick sick runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 0z Euro is "cold" the entire run...GFS is too...never gets us above 75-80 the entire run, and not really even that warm until the end....sick sick runs Damn, I hate cold weather. I guess with temps like that, I'll need to split more wood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Prob going to take till like mid may to see real warm stuff. It's always warm by Memorial Day. Tho I'm sure well have a sneak day or two that ends up at least a bit warmer than expected. But when 'cold' is like today who cares I guess. As long as we don't run into 5 day of clouds and showers with cutoffs hanging around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Damn, I hate cold weather. I guess with temps like that, I'll need to split more wood. Join me, splitting for next year now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 But when 'cold' is like today who cares I guess. As long as we don't run into 5 day of clouds and showers with cutoffs hanging around. GFS has been showing various cutoff solutions for a few days. 6z wobbles this one around for at least 3-4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 GFS has been showing various cutoff solutions for a few days. 6z wobbles this one around for at least 3-4 days. may5.JPG what a nightmare. hopefully it ends in the next three weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 what a nightmare. hopefully it ends in the next three weeks. Time will tell of course but I wouldn't be too worried at this point. My main reason for saying I think it will be cool here in May is because of the potential for lower than normal heights directly to our north over se canada and NE. Basically, backdoor style stuff. On the flip side I think the uber cold pattern in the north central part of the country will give way to ridging on the back side of the lower heights to our north. And potentially troughing in the west as well. This works for the plains right? I don't know enough about "good patterns" for chasing but if my wag is right I would thing the middle of the country could be warmer than the coasts and have some nice boundaries setting up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Time will tell of course but I wouldn't be too worried at this point. My main reason for saying I think it will be cool here in May is because of the potential for lower than normal heights directly to our north over se canada and NE. Basically, backdoor style stuff. On the flip side I think the uber cold pattern in the north central part of the country will give way to ridging on the back side of the lower heights to our north. And potentially troughing in the west as well. This works for the plains right? I don't know enough about "good patterns" for chasing but if my wag is right I would thing the middle of the country could be warmer than the coasts and have some nice boundaries setting up as well. I'm not too worried yet, more obsessive than anything. Last year looked bad before we left too and it was fine if not incredible (tho it really only takes one). This type of pattern in early May has been common the last few years. Guess it's partly the long term blocking regime. 2009 wasn't a great year out there.. but there are worse. I think the very LR Euro ens etc is trending in the right direction at least.. I kinda doubt there will be a great full latitude trough in the right spot for a major outbreak but really just need some sort of jet over part of the Plains and moisture. I figure we'll be spending most of our time in high plains/upslope areas... if any bigger event happens probably I70 and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 I'm not too worried yet, more obsessive than anything. Last year looked bad before we left too and it was fine if not incredible (tho it really only takes one). This type of pattern in early May has been common the last few years. Guess it's partly the long term blocking regime. 2009 wasn't a great year out there.. but there are worse. I think the very LR Euro ens etc is trending in the right direction at least.. I kinda doubt there will be a great full latitude trough in the right spot for a major outbreak but really just need some sort of jet over part of the Plains and moisture. I figure we'll be spending most of our time in high plains/upslope areas... if any bigger event happens probably I70 and north. FWIW- I just check last nights h5 anoms towards the end of the run. This is hr 360 and it shows what I'm thinking. Different variations of course but I think the pattern will look something like this for an extended period in may. This would at least allow for strong sw's to exit the rockies and cut to the lakes. The gulf would be open at least. Lotsa guesses on my part but I would think there are at least some hedgable odds of a portion of May shaking out like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Time will tell of course but I wouldn't be too worried at this point. My main reason for saying I think it will be cool here in May is because of the potential for lower than normal heights directly to our north over se canada and NE. Basically, backdoor style stuff. On the flip side I think the uber cold pattern in the north central part of the country will give way to ridging on the back side of the lower heights to our north. And potentially troughing in the west as well. This works for the plains right? I don't know enough about "good patterns" for chasing but if my wag is right I would thing the middle of the country could be warmer than the coasts and have some nice boundaries setting up as well. Don't agree, but low confidence...my WAG is we'll see ridging west of the rockies for Ian's trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Yeah, that's prob still not fantastic but if you can get the anomaly far enough northeast it doesn't completely shut things down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Don't agree, but low confidence...my WAG is we'll see ridging west of the rockies for Ian's trip now i really hate you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 Don't agree, but low confidence...my WAG is we'll see ridging west of the rockies for Ian's trip I haven't put much if any thought out west. I'm a imby thinker for the most part. I do have ever so slight modest confidence in lower heights to our north with maritime flow at times. There are some signals at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 now i really hate you not sure it really matters...there will almost certainly be ULL's swinging through the 4-corners/lower plains, etc...you'll have a good trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 25, 2013 Share Posted April 25, 2013 12z Euro is legit cold wire to wire....mocks the idea that we get into the 70s monday-wednesday...damp NE flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 25, 2013 Author Share Posted April 25, 2013 12z Euro is legit cold wire to wire....mocks the idea that we get into the 70s monday-wednesday...damp NE flow Good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted April 26, 2013 Share Posted April 26, 2013 That cutoff needs to stay up this way the week after next and not down in the SE. Heading to Florida for vacation and low 70s with showers doesn't sound like good pool weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted April 27, 2013 Share Posted April 27, 2013 Damp amd cloudy sounds like an opportunity to put some new plants into the flower beds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.