Bob Chill Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Looks like the back of the prolonged -ao is going to break. A full 60 day period of negative readings and a crazy -5+ in there too. Impressive stretch for sure. 45-60 days is the norm for extreme blocking setups and looks like this one will push past 60 days by a few extra days. Don't buy into the big + spike too much yet. I've seen that countless times when coming out of a big neg departure and it almost never verifies. There were plenty ens guidance + spikes during Feb and Mar too and as you can see none of them verified. However, there's a pretty tight cluster of ens right now so maybe there's more merit to the outlook. Euro has some 70's next week but highly doubt we flip warm and stay there. Euro D10 @ 500 shows a fairly decent EC trough with -5 to -10 850's moving back in but the overall look is progressive. Looks like the warmest air in many months will be here next week and I'm sure there will be a lot of windows open and miniskirts walking around. It's going to wake up and kick start the plants and trees. IMO- the remainder of the month will likely be a mixed bag. Periods of above and below norm temps with fairly progressive flow. Neither aoa or aob will dominate. No signs of a dominant -pna or big se ridge that I can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Looks like the back of the prolonged -ao is going to break. A full 60 day period of negative readings and a crazy -5+ in there too. ao.GIF Impressive stretch for sure. 45-60 days is the norm for extreme blocking setups and looks like this one will push past 60 days by a few extra days. Don't buy into the big + spike too much yet. I've seen that countless times when coming out of a big neg departure and it almost never verifies. There were plenty ens guidance + spikes during Feb and Mar too and as you can see none of them verified. However, there's a pretty tight cluster of ens right now so maybe there's more merit to the outlook. Euro has some 70's next week but highly doubt we flip warm and stay there. Euro D10 @ 500 shows a fairly decent EC trough with -5 to -10 850's moving back in but the overall look is progressive. Looks like the warmest air in many months will be here next week and I'm sure there will be a lot of windows open and miniskirts walking around. It's going to wake up and kick start the plants and trees. IMO- the remainder of the month will likely be a mixed bag. Periods of above and below norm temps with fairly progressive flow. Neither aoa or aob will dominate. No signs of a dominant -pna or big se ridge that I can see. Good post, and I especially agree with the bolded part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 3, 2013 Author Share Posted April 3, 2013 Just a hunch, but I'll bet next weeks warmup under performs current outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Just a hunch, but I'll bet next weeks warmup under performs current outlooks. We'll get back-doored to death after Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Just a hunch, but I'll bet next weeks warmup under performs current outlooks. considering everyone seems to be jumping for it all verbatim, not a bad guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Just a hunch, but I'll bet next weeks warmup under performs current outlooks. We'll get back-doored to death after Sunday. considering everyone seems to be jumping for it all verbatim, not a bad guess hopefully we are backdoored and 55 while BWI is 49 and EZF is 73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 3, 2013 Author Share Posted April 3, 2013 We'll get back-doored to death after Sunday. considering everyone seems to be jumping for it all verbatim, not a bad guess hopefully we are backdoored and 55 while BWI is 49 and EZF is 73 The Euro and some of the GFS ens members give me an uneasy feeling about it. Just seems primed to fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted April 3, 2013 Share Posted April 3, 2013 Just a hunch, but I'll bet next weeks warmup under performs current outlooks. We'll get back-doored to death after Sunday. When I suggested this a couple of days ago in one of DT's facebook posts, he thought I was nuts. Anyone who has lived in the DC/Balt for at least a few years knows that it's hard to get a long period of warmth in April. When you see heights building in eastern Canada, you worry about backdoor fronts. It's just a fact of life for most springs here. And almost always, backdoor fronts are stronger, and go further south than forecast. Maybe we'll be lucky, but I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 Becoming 10-20 degrees warmer on 7-8 ahead of next rwt on 9 then warm ahead of another rwt expected to arrive April 11-12 with 10-15 degree cool down for the 13-14th which will be short lived. Then a 5-10 degree warm up again April 15-16 ahead of rwt for 16th and then around 5 degrees cooler for the 17 and then a 10-20 degree warm up again 18-19. I believe during and after the two short waves on the 9 and 11th temps will rise to above normal levels with warmth peaking around 18-19th and remain above normal but cooling slightly as we head through the 24th or so. EDIT: I forgot to add that I think the SW-rwt for April 11-12 has potential for svr wx or late season snow storm for the northern regions east of the Mississippi. Same goes for the April 3-4 SW-rwt Looks like SW for April 24 +-1 day with next major cold snap and best chance at a svr wx set up. I would say maybe even snow again in the northern tier of the US. Another SW arriving in eastern US for apr 27-30 window with brief cool down behind it. Then a sw for May 1-3 time frame with slight cool down for May 2-4 time frame behind sw depending on it's arrival. After that a decent torch will develop for May 4-7 time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 11, 2013 Author Share Posted April 11, 2013 LOL, the March long range thread had 65 pages. This one has two, over a third of the way through the month. Can we get 7? Over/under? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 The naysayers to the warmth got awfully quite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 The naysayers to the warmth got awfully quite We never bust low on warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 Who cares about warmth. It's guaranteed and pedestrian from an enthusiast's point of view. What's there to discuss? The board is crickets and echos this time of year all the way through Sept. ZZZzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 If you say above abverage for any month based on the last 3 years you'll be right about 80% of the time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 My hunch is the LR expected cool down will underperform. We just know how to torch around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 11, 2013 Author Share Posted April 11, 2013 The naysayers to the warmth got awfully quite Quiet. I wouldn't have done that to you if you hadn't been a warminista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 11, 2013 Author Share Posted April 11, 2013 Take that heat lovers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 11, 2013 Share Posted April 11, 2013 GFS had a whacked pattern late a few days ago, guess cpc agrees. Hopefully it holds till about may 15 then flips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 Who cares about warmth. It's guaranteed and pedestrian from an enthusiast's point of view. What's there to discuss? The board is crickets and echos this time of year all the way through Sept. ZZZzzzz This weather is just not exciting. Get a new laser while you still have time before our gangbuster's winter coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 I think I just had a wind chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 Take that heat lovers! I'm a warm lover, and I think normal in mid to late April is great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 I'm a warm lover, and I think normal in mid to late April is great. yeah.... oh no 60s to near 70! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 Outlook for April... starting off cool but overall warm look especially by middle of the month. Warm March 31-April 3 as ext rwt arrives for the 3-4 then 10-15 degree drop in temps and colder April 4-6. Becoming 10-20 degrees warmer on 7-8 ahead of next rwt on 9 then warm ahead of another rwt expected to arrive April 11-12 with 10-15 degree cool down for the 13-14th which will be short lived. Then a 5-10 degree warm up again April 15-16 ahead of rwt for 16th and then around 5 degrees cooler for the 17 and then a 10-20 degree warm up again 18-19. I believe during and after the two short waves on the 9 and 11th temps will rise to above normal levels with warmth peaking around 18-19th and remain above normal but cooling slightly as we head through the 24th or so. Sorry it's not pretty with pics to go along with it, some people were asking so I threw this together quickly since I have been short on time these past couple weeks. EDIT: I forgot to add that I think the SW-rwt for April 11-12 has potential for svr wx or late season snow storm for the northern regions east of the Mississippi. Same goes for the April 3-4 SW-rwt 10 tornadoes for April 11...not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 Does anyone doubt 80s next week? Hopefully after 4/20 we go E/NE winds for like 2 months straight...then I dont give a crap if July is +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted April 12, 2013 Share Posted April 12, 2013 Does anyone doubt 80s next week? Hopefully after 4/20 we go E/NE winds for like 2 months straight...then I dont give a crap if July is +5 Looks pretty favorable for cooler weather in a week or so. Wed-Fri next week are poised for more 80ish stuff but there's some consensus beyond that to not allow such easy ridging in the east. LW pattern looks like it wants to get back to some cool continental airmasses dropping out of Canada. I'm sure rooting for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Looks pretty favorable for cooler weather in a week or so. Wed-Fri next week are poised for more 80ish stuff but there's some consensus beyond that to not allow such easy ridging in the east. LW pattern looks like it wants to get back to some cool continental airmasses dropping out of Canada. I'm sure rooting for it. I just think if we can stay within normal it would be a victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 13, 2013 Author Share Posted April 13, 2013 I'm a warm lover, and I think normal in mid to late April is great. Yeah, normal would be great, but in case you haven't noticed we have been nowhere near normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted April 13, 2013 Share Posted April 13, 2013 Yeah, normal would be great, but in case you haven't noticed we have been nowhere near normal. I was out of town for the heat - just got back. But it seems like you were saying that the people who like warmth may not like normal temps this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted April 13, 2013 Author Share Posted April 13, 2013 I was out of town for the heat - just got back. But it seems like you were saying that the people who like warmth may not like normal temps this time of year. Actually, I was just being a clown in addressing Subtropic who seems to enjoy it if it's Africa hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted April 14, 2013 Share Posted April 14, 2013 Im debating middle or upper at this point...its different than last week with the southerly flow, better moisture potential. Does anyone doubt 80s next week? Hopefully after 4/20 we go E/NE winds for like 2 months straight...then I dont give a crap if July is +5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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