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April Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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We'll get back-doored to death after Sunday.

 

 

considering everyone seems to be jumping for it all verbatim, not a bad guess

 

 

hopefully we are backdoored and 55 while BWI is 49 and EZF is 73

 

The Euro and some of the GFS ens members give me an uneasy feeling about it.  Just seems primed to fail. 

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Just a hunch, but I'll bet next weeks warmup under performs current outlooks.

 

 

We'll get back-doored to death after Sunday.

When I suggested this a couple of days ago in one of DT's facebook posts, he thought I was nuts.  Anyone who has lived in the DC/Balt for at least a few years knows that it's hard to get a long period of warmth in April.  When you see heights building in eastern Canada, you worry about backdoor fronts.  It's just a fact of life for most springs here.  And almost always, backdoor fronts are stronger, and go further south than forecast.  Maybe we'll be lucky, but I don't know.

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Becoming 10-20 degrees warmer on 7-8 ahead of next rwt on 9 then warm ahead of another rwt expected to arrive April 11-12 with 10-15 degree cool down for the 13-14th which will be short lived. Then a 5-10 degree warm up again April 15-16 ahead of rwt for 16th and then around 5 degrees cooler for the 17 and then a 10-20 degree warm up again 18-19. I believe during and after the two short waves on the 9 and 11th temps will rise to above normal levels with warmth peaking around 18-19th and remain above normal but cooling slightly as we head through the 24th or so.

 

EDIT: I forgot to add that I think the SW-rwt for April 11-12 has potential for svr wx or late season snow storm for the northern regions east of the Mississippi. Same goes for the April 3-4 SW-rwt

Looks like SW for April 24 +-1 day with next major cold snap and best chance at a svr wx set up. I would say maybe even snow again in the northern tier of the US. Another SW arriving in eastern US for apr 27-30 window with brief cool down behind it. Then a sw for May 1-3 time frame with slight cool down for May 2-4 time frame behind sw depending on it's arrival. After that a decent torch will develop for May 4-7 time frame.
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Who cares about warmth. It's guaranteed and pedestrian from an enthusiast's point of view. What's there to discuss?

The board is crickets and echos this time of year all the way through Sept. ZZZzzzz

This weather is just not exciting. Get a new laser while you still have time before our gangbuster's winter coming up.

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Outlook for April... starting off cool but overall warm look especially by middle of the month. Warm March 31-April 3 as ext rwt arrives for the 3-4 then 10-15 degree drop in temps and colder April 4-6. Becoming 10-20 degrees warmer on 7-8 ahead of next rwt on 9 then warm ahead of another rwt expected to arrive April 11-12 with 10-15 degree cool down for the 13-14th which will be short lived. Then a 5-10 degree warm up again April 15-16 ahead of rwt for 16th and then around 5 degrees cooler for the 17 and then a 10-20 degree warm up again 18-19. I believe during and after the two short waves on the 9 and 11th temps will rise to above normal levels with warmth peaking around 18-19th and remain above normal but cooling slightly as we head through the 24th or so.

 

Sorry it's not pretty with pics to go along with it, some people were asking so I threw this together quickly since I have been short on time these past couple weeks.

EDIT: I forgot to add that I think the SW-rwt for April 11-12 has potential for svr wx or late season snow storm for the northern regions east of the Mississippi. Same goes for the April 3-4 SW-rwt

10 tornadoes for April 11...not too shabby.

post-3697-0-49339700-1365792069_thumb.jp

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Does anyone doubt 80s next week?

 

 

Hopefully after 4/20 we go E/NE winds for like 2 months straight...then I dont give a crap if July is +5

 

Looks pretty favorable for cooler weather in a week or so. Wed-Fri next week are poised for more 80ish stuff but there's some consensus beyond that to not allow such easy ridging in the east. LW pattern looks like it wants to get back to some cool continental airmasses dropping out of Canada. I'm sure rooting for it. 

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Looks pretty favorable for cooler weather in a week or so. Wed-Fri next week are poised for more 80ish stuff but there's some consensus beyond that to not allow such easy ridging in the east. LW pattern looks like it wants to get back to some cool continental airmasses dropping out of Canada. I'm sure rooting for it.

I just think if we can stay within normal it would be a victory.

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I was out of town for the heat - just got back. But it seems like you were saying that the people who like warmth may not like normal temps this time of year.

Actually, I was just being a clown in addressing Subtropic who seems to enjoy it if it's Africa hot.

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  • 2 weeks later...

now 12z Euro and GEFS backs it up...

 

no higher than low 70s (low to mid tomorrow) entire run and mostly colder...

 

I don't mind mid-60s if there's sun and not much wind.  I'd prefer mid-70s, but I won't be too picky in late April.  I'd just rather not feel like I live in Youngstown or Omaha or some other middling town in the heartland.

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now 12z Euro and GEFS backs it up...

 

no higher than low 70s (low to mid tomorrow) entire run and mostly colder...

 

 

Great news.  Every day that we have "coolish" temps is just one day closer to the "coolish" temps on the other side of summer.

 

Late spring, early fall, long winter.......that's how it's done.

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