WinterWxLuvr Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 New month, new season, new thread. Go get em severe guys/gals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 We don't need your luck, who the hell wants severe. Save your mojo for December, don't waste it on Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 We don't need your luck, who the hell wants severe. Save your mojo for December, don't waste it on Ian. I hope the next EF4 in the area misses you and hits me. Oh wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 I hope the next EF4 in the area misses you and hits me. Oh wait. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 I hope the next EF4 in the area misses you and hits me. Oh wait. Has there ever even been an EF4 in our area?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Has there ever even been an EF4 in our area?. La Plata 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 La Plata 2002 Oh right thanks, I did not realize it was that high. La Plata has actually had two F4's in it's history. Has there ever been an F5 in our area?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 La Plata 2002 One near Culpeper too in 2001 and one near RIC in 1993. Plus the W MD one in 1998. Probably some others pre 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Oh right thanks, I did not realize it was that high. La Plata has actually had two F4's in it's history. Has there ever been an F5 in our area?. there havent been any east of western PA / east of the apps in the modern record at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 there havent been any east of western PA / east of the apps in the modern record at least. Thanks, with the crazy weather extremes these days it may actually happen around here some day. With your luck it will be during one of your 3 week chases . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 31, 2013 Author Share Posted March 31, 2013 there havent been any east of western PA / east of the apps in the modern record at least. That's interesting. You'd think eastern Ga, SC, or NC would have produced at least one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Thanks, with the crazy weather extremes these days it may actually happen around here some day. With your luck it will be during one of your 3 week chases . If we can get a 4 we can probably get a 5 tho it's likely like a 1 in 100+ yr event and we may be a bit too far north (Carolinas seem more likely)... plus getting those highest ratings is harder these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 That's interesting. You'd think eastern Ga, SC, or NC would have produced at least one. I think it's partly that our best period of dynamics east of the Apps doesn't tend to overlap the best period of dew points etc. Ratings are a bit up for debate.. possible there's been a 5 not rated that way etc. There are definitely a good bit more 4s Carolinas to Georgia.. not many in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 31, 2013 Author Share Posted March 31, 2013 Looks like a good period of milder weather coming. Nothing out of the ordinary warm, but not winter like temps either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Today turned out much colder than forecast by a lot of people. After yesterday's sunshine and low-60s, today's mid-40s are a real slap in the face. Right now, it seems like it's easier for the atmosphere to be 15 degrees colder than normal, than it is for it to just hit average temperatures. I think it stays colder than normal this week into the weekend, but by the middle of next week, it finally looks more like spring. Interestingly, a week ago, this week was looking warmer in the models, but it looks like it's going to verify quite a bit cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Temps prob weren't as far off as they felt at least right around DC but it was a cool day compared to forecast for sure. I went too high with my forecast yesterday. In retrospect not sure why I thought we'd near 60 with showers approaching in the morning. I'll blame MOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Temps prob weren't as far off as they felt at least right around DC but it was a cool day compared to forecast for sure. I went too high with my forecast yesterday. In retrospect not sure why I thought we'd near 60 with showers approaching in the morning. I'll blame MOS. This week is obviously going to be pretty cold, compared to averages. And next weekend isn't looking nearly as good as it was a few days ago. KA may turn out to be correct with his thinking that we don't warm up till mid-April. The return to at least average temperatures keeps getting pushed back. I'm going to remain skeptical on modeled warmth until it starts showing up in convincing form on short-range models. We just don't seem to be able to get out of this cold crap. Looks like the northern half of Europe is also dealing with the same miserable lack of spring, and even some snows in places where it rarely snows in April. Winter won't die this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Today turned out much colder than forecast by a lot of people. After yesterday's sunshine and low-60s, today's mid-40s are a real slap in the face. Right now, it seems like it's easier for the atmosphere to be 15 degrees colder than normal, than it is for it to just hit average temperatures. I think it stays colder than normal this week into the weekend, but by the middle of next week, it finally looks more like spring. Interestingly, a week ago, this week was looking warmer in the models, but it looks like it's going to verify quite a bit cooler. Our max was 4-5 degrees below normal here which is pretty standard in a seasonal air mass when it isn't sunny. Not calling you out, but people in general are pretty dumb when it comes to climo. March is our 4th coldest month. Spring in DC doesn't mean it should be 10-15 degrees above normal. This weekend couldn't have been more typical of late march if it tried. It was quintessential DC late march. The complaining about a -3 march is getting tiresome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Our max was 4-5 degrees below normal here which is pretty standard in a seasonal air mass when it isn't sunny. Not calling you out, but people in general are pretty dumb when it comes to climo. March is our 4th coldest month. Spring in DC doesn't mean it should be 10-15 degrees above normal. This weekend couldn't have been more typical of late march if it tried. It was quintessential DC late march. The complaining about a -3 march is getting tiresome. 2011 had fewer days 60+ in Mar by 1 at DC. I think the max temp for the month and the high of 39 are quite notable any way you slice it but the month want abysmal by any stretch. Of course coming off last year is going to skew people's ideas of march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 2011 had fewer days 60+ in Mar by 1 at DC. I think the max temp for the month and the high of 39 are quite notable any way you slice it but the month want abysmal by any stretch. Of course coming off last year is going to skew people's ideas of march. It was a cold march. There is no question. Still, -3 is not that noteworthy. Plus this weekend was as standard as it gets for late march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 Our max was 4-5 degrees below normal here which is pretty standard in a seasonal air mass when it isn't sunny. Not calling you out, but people in general are pretty dumb when it comes to climo. March is our 4th coldest month. Spring in DC doesn't mean it should be 10-15 degrees above normal. This weekend couldn't have been more typical of late march if it tried. It was quintessential DC late march. The complaining about a -3 march is getting tiresome. Maybe it was milder in DC today, but in northern MD where I live, we've been hovering around 45 or 46 degrees all afternoon. Our average high is 62 degrees. I certainly understand that March is our 4th coldest month, and I understand DC climo, but our afternoon temperature being 15 degrees below normal is a pretty big negative departure. Yesterday's temperature hit 59 degrees here - a few degrees below normal, but still great. With the sunshine, and clear blue skies, I rate yesterday a 10. I give today a 1. Entirely subjective of course, as any rating is going to be, but that's my rating. Looking at the max temperatures for March here, I've had 4 days with max temps above average, 1 day at average, and the max every other day in March below average, some as much as 15 or 20 degrees below average. The last day with a max above average was March 12. No doubt that DCA has a smaller -3 departure for the month, but out here, the negative departure is quite a bit greater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 2011 had fewer days 60+ in Mar by 1 at DC. I think the max temp for the month and the high of 39 are quite notable any way you slice it but the month want abysmal by any stretch. Of course coming off last year is going to skew people's ideas of march. Yeah, last March was nuts. And I agree with you that for many people, it probably has skewed people's idea of what March is supposed to be. However, personally, I'm going strictly by what our daily max averages are, and comparing this March's max temps to those numbers. I also think that for this March, the western and northern 'burbs have had more of a negative departure from DC than one might normally expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Maybe it was milder in DC today, but in northern MD where I live, we've been hovering around 45 or 46 degrees all afternoon. Our average high is 62 degrees. I certainly understand that March is our 4th coldest month, and I understand DC climo, but our afternoon temperature being 15 degrees below normal is a pretty big negative departure. Yesterday's temperature hit 59 degrees here - a few degrees below normal, but still great. With the sunshine, and clear blue skies, I rate yesterday a 10. I give today a 1. Entirely subjective of course, as any rating is going to be, but that's my rating. Looking at the max temperatures for March here, I've had 4 days with max temps above average, 1 day at average, and the max every other day in March below average, some as much as 15 or 20 degrees below average. The last day with a max above average was March 12. No doubt that DCA has a smaller -3 departure for the month, but out here, the negative departure is quite a bit greater. point taken though 62 is probably a tad high....it is probably ~59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Yeah, last March was nuts. And I agree with you that for many people, it probably has skewed people's idea of what March is supposed to be. However, personally, I'm going strictly by what our daily max averages are, and comparing this March's max temps to those numbers. I also think that for this March, the western and northern 'burbs have had more of a negative departure from DC than one might normally expect. no....the departure has been pretty uniform across the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 no....the departure has been pretty uniform across the area Fair enough. When I looked at the numbers for here, it seemed like a bigger negative departure than -3, but I was only looking at daily maxes for the month, not daily averages, which are perhaps closer. Getting back to April - this week, another week of solid negative departures. Since around January 20, this has been a pretty long stretch of generally below normal... it's a shame we weren't able to get more snow out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 I don't know if this is a big deal but to me "normal" and "average" get mixed up all too often, especially in mainstream media. "Average" is just that, the average high/low temp, the average precipitation, etc. "Normal" can mean 10 degrees below average for a spell, or 10 degrees above average for a period of time. That is normal weather for around here. When I here a reporter say" we are 10 degrees below normal" it makes me want to slap them in the face. It might be 10 degrees below average but that type of swing in our weather is perfectly normal. Okay, there has to be a line where too many degrees or inches of precipitation does depart from "normal", but I don't think in most cases we are there when we hear we are "not normal". Just my 2 cents and I believe we are having perfectly normal weather at the moment, just a little cooler than average. But I am hoping for closer to average weather soon. I like highs in the low 60's and lows in the 40's/50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Well dailies are normalized so its not a straight avg there. But yeah swings in temps are fairly common particularly this time of year. Mar is perhaps one of the easier months to get big departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 7251_524064004307068_1496981871_n.jpg Me likey!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted April 1, 2013 Share Posted April 1, 2013 Well dailies are normalized so its not a straight avg there. But yeah swings in temps are fairly common particularly this time of year. Mar is perhaps one of the easier months to get big departures.A normal is just a smoothed average, but judgment is required as to the normalization process, so normals in some cases can be misleading. As I noted here -- http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38960-recent-january-dca-temperatures-appear-inconsistent-with-1981-2010-normals/#entry2029342 -- "If the 1981-2010 temperature normals for Reagan National Airport are taken at face value, DCA temperatures on average bottom out during January 12th-17th (at a mean of 35.7 degrees), then rise gradually (to 35.9 degrees on January 21st, 37.2 degrees on February 5th, and peak between July 12th-21st at 80.0 degrees). However, January daily temperatures during this period -- and even more so during the most recent 30 years, 1984-2013 -- appear inconsistent with those normals." But, anyone you look at it, winter temperatures in DC are far more variable than summer temperatures. For example, the historical average daily change in the March maximum temperature is almost eight degrees, as compared to just over four degrees in July and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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