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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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Once again the 12Z NAM has less than half the QPF than the GFS for APA: 13 mm vs around 32. This is amazingly consistent the last 4-5 storms. Go figure. I don't even care about snow, but it would be great to water in the fertilizer... and part of me is happy that I procrastinated and haven't turned the sprinklers on yet!

 

Thinking that a good rule of thumb might be "one good snowfall after the first lawn mowing". :0

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NWS also mentioned that the all-time record low for May in Denver (19) has an outside shot at falling Thursday morning. That's not just for DEN, but the whole Denver climate record. The record for DEN is 22.

 

In addition, decent shot at getting the first sub-freezing May high in Denver history tomorrow as well, if the snow keeps up all day. 

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The midnight reading is going to come in too warm.

 

Indeed. Timing was just a bit off. Looks like Fort Collins might pull off a high of 33 today, which just misses their all-time record low max for May by a degree. 

 

3" at my house when I left this morning. About 5" now at work in Boulder.

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Very cold April for the region...

 

DEN had a monthly temperature of 41.7, which is the 6th coldest April of all-time (records back to 1873). If it hadn't been for the two really warm days near the end of the month, 2013 would have been in the top 3.

 

Cheyenne had a monthly temperature of 35.7, making 2013 the coldest April since 1983 and 5th coldest on record. The 37.5" of snow at Cheyenne made 2013 the second snowiest April on record.

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Good 8"+ on the grass at my place in central Fort Collins.  Steady snow with finer flakes than last night when it was snowing potato chip flakes.  I get the feeling FOCO really took the brunt of this storm for cities along the Front Range..

It snowed a lot. I think I have 9" on objects that are elevated. The aggregate snowflakes were really 1" wide last night.

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Absolutely dumping again in Boulder. Probably about 7" on the ground now.

 

I fully expect a bunch of May temperature records to fall tonight/tomorrow morning throughout the region. With deep snow cover in place and clearing likely after midnight, the ingredients seem to be in place for optimal cooling.

 

Some of the May records to watch for (bolded ones are most likely to fall):

 

16 in Casper

13 in Cheyenne

19 in Denver (22 since airport records began)

9 in Laramie

18 in Greeley

20 in Boulder

21 in Colorado Springs

23 in Pueblo

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What an unbelievable season this has been. With this coming storm, 2013 will almost certainly be cemented as the snowiest spring (Mar-May) on record for most of the region.

I wonder what that March-May snow total record is for various cities.  I think I just broke my personal March-May snow record. It is continuing to snow here. I measured 11" in my yard. Most of the streets were in good condition.

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I wonder what that March-May snow total record is for various cities.  I think I just broke my personal March-May snow record. It is continuing to snow here. I measured 11" in my yard. Most of the streets were in good condition.

 

Well, I know that Denver's was 49" from 1983. They may fall just short of that with this storm, but they should be at least 46"+.

 

Boulder's previous record was 71" from 1944, but they should be at 75"+ after this storm.

 

Looks like Fort Collin's record was 45" from 1983...pretty sure they have handily beat that with this storm.

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Well, this one overperformed for a change... about 6" at our house (streets only wet throughout) and we are lower than the LSRs around. Will be insane to see the mountain obs tomorrow AM. Just crazy. Boulder is now the non-mountain snow capital of the world. The moisture gods are smiling on us... YAY!

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Well, I know that Denver's was 49" from 1983. They may fall just short of that with this storm, but they should be at least 46"+.

 

Boulder's previous record was 71" from 1944, but they should be at 75"+ after this storm.

 

Looks like Fort Collin's record was 45" from 1983...pretty sure they have handily beat that with this storm.

 

Fort Collins March to May snow total is 54.9 unbelievable inches. That breaks the spring March to May season record.

 

Today, Fort Collins-CSU got 12.8" of snow.

 

The seasonal total is 79.1" of snow. Apparently the 1981-2010 climatology is 55.2" of snow per season (plus a bit, since early May averages more than zero.)

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Absolutely dumping again in Boulder. Probably about 7" on the ground now.

 

I fully expect a bunch of May temperature records to fall tonight/tomorrow morning throughout the region. With deep snow cover in place and clearing likely after midnight, the ingredients seem to be in place for optimal cooling.

 

Some of the May records to watch for (bolded ones are most likely to fall):

 

16 in Casper

13 in Cheyenne

19 in Denver (22 since airport records began)

9 in Laramie

18 in Greeley

20 in Boulder

21 in Colorado Springs

23 in Pueblo

 

These are not final numbers, but here are the apparent lows from this morning (all locations fell to at least these temps):

 

 

21 in Casper

9 in Cheyenne (new May record) 

22 in Denver (ties DEN May record, records to 1948)

19 in Aurora, the closest major station to the old airport location

7 in Laramie (new May record)

17 in Fort Collins (coldest May temp since 1917)

19 in Greeley (coldest May temp since 1907)

21 in Boulder

23 in Colorado Springs (Air Force Academy fell to 19)

28 in Pueblo

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These are not final numbers, but here are the apparent lows from this morning (all locations fell to at least these temps):

 

 

21 in Casper

9 in Cheyenne (new May record) 

22 in Denver (ties DEN May record, records to 1948)

19 in Aurora, the closest major station to the old airport location

7 in Laramie (new May record)

17 in Fort Collins (coldest May temp since 1917)

19 in Greeley (coldest May temp since 1907)

21 in Boulder

23 in Colorado Springs (Air Force Academy fell to 19)

28 in Pueblo

 

Turns out DEN actually fell to 19:

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO

805 AM MDT THU MAY 02 2013

...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT DENVER CO...

AT 641 AM MDT...THE TEMPERATURE AT DENVER INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

DROPPED TO 19 DEGREES. THIS SETS A NEW LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR

MAY 2ND. THIS EXCEEDS THE OLD RECORD LOW OF 22 DEGREES SET BACK IN

1954.

IN ADDITION...THIS MORNINGS LOW OF 19 DEGREES ALSO TIES FOR THE

COLDEST TEMPERATURE IN MAY FOR DENVER SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1872.

THE LAST OCCURRENCE WITH A LOW OF 19 DEGREES WAS MAY 3RD...1907.

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Looks like a low pressure center drifting W over Pueblo right now. Just heard thunder in the Springs, and some strong storms popping up on the N side of the Palmer Divide. 

 

radar image from toay, 11:40am MT:

 

post-804-0-53198100-1368121348_thumb.gif

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The Front Range cities will see a slight chance of a thunderstorm in the next few days-- today through Saturday. Each of these days, deep layer wind shear will be 25 to 40 knots, so there may be some severe storm development.

 

I'll edit this a little bit. I think instability looks best tomorrow, but it's still under 1000 J/kg. We may have a few thunderstorms tomorrow. For Friday and Saturday, models have the best CAPE values in eastern Colorado, so I don't think we will have much coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Front Range corridor on those days.

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