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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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Quite an interesting discrepancy between the GFS/NAM and Euro.  All three models handling the UL dynamics differently, especially that piece of energy off the CA coast.  Euro overall more organized and thinking cyclogenesis occurs further north than the GFS/NAM.  I'm up in Laramie, so I'm hoping we keep that NW flow throughout much of the event ;)

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Each model run indicates the possibility of west-to-east bands forming east of the mountains, but model runs have differed. The NWS seemingly doesn't want to make a call for a big storm. We have no advisories or watches. I suppose that is alright for now.

 

The 12z GFS broad-brushes about 6-7" north of Denver. I guess then NAM and GFS are coming to some sort of agreement.

 

post-1182-0-97217300-1391017619_thumb.gi

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Now the GFS shows moisture for Tuesday, there could be some heavy snow areas Tuesday, over 9000ft.

Sounds good, thanks Chinook!  Something to keep an eye on.

 

On a side note, been watching webcams all day at the resorts, they are getting pummelled!  Can't wait to get out there tomorrow!

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We just had some easterly gusts. It was 42 degrees with cloudy, and we had good visibility. Now the easterly surge has sent a batch of snow westward at several miles per hour. We have a few wet flakes. Looks like a heavy band has formed near Brighton and I-76. I wonder if this is heavy wet snow at more than 1" per hour. Not sure.

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The frotogenesis-forced bands seem to have taken over the plains since 4:00PM. In Fort Collins, we have seen flakes since my last post (5:40PM)

 

A fine wet snow has been falling. We have about 2" and it is somewhat slushy. We started out with upper 30's when the first flakes fell.  The local observation says 3/4 mile visibility. I think the visibility is less here.  There is up to 4" at the Adams County/Morgan County line.  (local storm report, Hoyt)

 

 

We had 4" on Monday, and now at least 2" tonight. So this week has been quite snowy. By the end of the day tomorrow, it will be the snowiest week of this winter so far. Normally, the big storms stay away from us in January. This has been true in most Januaries since I have been here- the snow usually hits in small amounts in January.

 

This snow season so far IMBY

October: 3"

November: 4"

early December: 6.5"

late December: a couple of traces, possibly 0.6"

early January: 4.4"

mid January: 2.4" estimated

late January: 4.0"

 

total before tonight

24.9"

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This could be quite the week for Colorado. As of now, a spotter report of 25" at Breckenridge (over 2 days)

 

Monday-Tuesday may be another snowy period. The GFS has a number of areas over 0.3" of QPF with a cold 700mb low. This could bring up to 6" for the cities. 700mb temps are several degrees colder on Tuesday than today.  It seems like the synoptics are about right for a decent storm for Denver, and of course mountain areas. I wonder if Fort Collins could get over 12" from now to Wednesday.

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This snow season so far IMBY

October: 3"

November: 4"

early December: 6.5"

late December: a couple of traces, possibly 0.6"

early January: 4.4"

mid January: 2.4" estimated

late January: 4.0"

 

total before tonight

24.9"

from this storm, I will say that I had 5.8" in my yard from Thursday to Friday. We had another surge of upslope, starting at about midnight Friday to now. we got another 0.5" of snow, or perhaps more.

season total: 31.2"

 

radar image from Thursday

 

post-1182-0-60866800-1391282036_thumb.pn

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Strange AFD for park city area today. No long range or medium range mentioned. I'm on the phone only for the week. Anyone have any thoughts regarding the potential system for Monday night or Tuesday? It looks pretty good trip me yesterday bit haven't looked yet today.

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Tuesday-Wednesday:

 

The NAM and GFS have 6-12" for the mountains (as discussed before).

 

Now both models are showing an area of 6" or more southeast of Denver. I would suppose that these areas need a winter storm watch, as they probably have lower thresholds for a winter storm watch/warning. The SREF max 24hr precip shows 0.5" to 1.25" in southeast Colorado, which would lead to 5 to 18" of snow. (0.5" with 10-1 ratio, up to 1.25" , with 15-1 snow ratio). Of course, the precip rarely gets to the max displayed on the SREF, usually only about 50-75% of the max.

 

Areas around the cities seem to be 2.5 to 6".  SREF plumes QPF has about 0.3" (average) for my area. That probably means at least 3" of snow for me.

 

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post-1182-0-31805800-1391453561_thumb.gi

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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It seems like we have had maybe 1.2" to 1.5". The snow was very light for a while. On radar, it went from nothing detected, to 10dbz. So now it is accumulating maybe 0.3" per hour (again.) even though 10dbz sounds very low.

 

In southeast Colorado, it appears that the heavier snow fell at nighttime, 3am to 5am. My guess is that 3" to 7" has already affected the Burlington, Lamar, La Junta, Springfield area. (based on LSRs from Pueblo and Goodland.)

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It got to -13.9 here (-21.7 outside of town at Christman Field) -11 at Fort Collins-Loveland airport. I believe this is the coldest temp here since Dec. 9 2009.

 

-27 at Greeley

 

KGXY 051235Z AUTO 31004KT 10SM CLR M33/ A3036 RMK AO1

 

-18 at Denver

 

KDEN 051225Z 13005KT 10SM OVC010 M28/M31 A3025 RMK AO2 T12781306

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This reminds me of 1994 in the east

 

------------

..THE DENVER CO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 5 2014    CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010  CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1872 TO 2014    WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST                       VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR                                                         NORMAL                ..............................................................    TEMPERATURE (F)                                                        YESTERDAY                                                               MAXIMUM         -1    223 PM  76    1963  45    -46       59           MINIMUM        -19    520 AM -24    1989  17    -36       21           AVERAGE        -10                        31    -41       40   
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