newtownwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Quite an interesting discrepancy between the GFS/NAM and Euro. All three models handling the UL dynamics differently, especially that piece of energy off the CA coast. Euro overall more organized and thinking cyclogenesis occurs further north than the GFS/NAM. I'm up in Laramie, so I'm hoping we keep that NW flow throughout much of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Getting ready for some snorkel-deep pow! I assume the NAM tends to overpredict totals? Regardless, the GFS showing some big numbers too. 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Each model run indicates the possibility of west-to-east bands forming east of the mountains, but model runs have differed. The NWS seemingly doesn't want to make a call for a big storm. We have no advisories or watches. I suppose that is alright for now. The 12z GFS broad-brushes about 6-7" north of Denver. I guess then NAM and GFS are coming to some sort of agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Heading to snowmass on the tail end of this storm, arrive friday. Will ski sat-tues, then fly out wed. You guys see any chance of snow sun-wed? It looks like the systems in that time frame miss us to the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Sunday-Monday there will be a shortwave low in Arizona. I would normally think this would mean a chance of snow for the mountains. I don't see too much QPF on the models, so maybe the moisture is lacking by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 30, 2014 Author Share Posted January 30, 2014 Now the GFS shows moisture for Tuesday, there could be some heavy snow areas Tuesday, over 9000ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Now the GFS shows moisture for Tuesday, there could be some heavy snow areas Tuesday, over 9000ft. Sounds good, thanks Chinook! Something to keep an eye on. On a side note, been watching webcams all day at the resorts, they are getting pummelled! Can't wait to get out there tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 We just had some easterly gusts. It was 42 degrees with cloudy, and we had good visibility. Now the easterly surge has sent a batch of snow westward at several miles per hour. We have a few wet flakes. Looks like a heavy band has formed near Brighton and I-76. I wonder if this is heavy wet snow at more than 1" per hour. Not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The frotogenesis-forced bands seem to have taken over the plains since 4:00PM. In Fort Collins, we have seen flakes since my last post (5:40PM) A fine wet snow has been falling. We have about 2" and it is somewhat slushy. We started out with upper 30's when the first flakes fell. The local observation says 3/4 mile visibility. I think the visibility is less here. There is up to 4" at the Adams County/Morgan County line. (local storm report, Hoyt) We had 4" on Monday, and now at least 2" tonight. So this week has been quite snowy. By the end of the day tomorrow, it will be the snowiest week of this winter so far. Normally, the big storms stay away from us in January. This has been true in most Januaries since I have been here- the snow usually hits in small amounts in January. This snow season so far IMBY October: 3" November: 4" early December: 6.5" late December: a couple of traces, possibly 0.6" early January: 4.4" mid January: 2.4" estimated late January: 4.0" total before tonight 24.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 This could be quite the week for Colorado. As of now, a spotter report of 25" at Breckenridge (over 2 days) Monday-Tuesday may be another snowy period. The GFS has a number of areas over 0.3" of QPF with a cold 700mb low. This could bring up to 6" for the cities. 700mb temps are several degrees colder on Tuesday than today. It seems like the synoptics are about right for a decent storm for Denver, and of course mountain areas. I wonder if Fort Collins could get over 12" from now to Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 this storm report is most similar to what I measured. I had some measurements of 5.5" to 6" in my yard --- 0810 AM SNOW 1 SSW FORT COLLINS 40.55N 105.07W 01/31/2014 M5.1 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 This snow season so far IMBY October: 3" November: 4" early December: 6.5" late December: a couple of traces, possibly 0.6" early January: 4.4" mid January: 2.4" estimated late January: 4.0" total before tonight 24.9" from this storm, I will say that I had 5.8" in my yard from Thursday to Friday. We had another surge of upslope, starting at about midnight Friday to now. we got another 0.5" of snow, or perhaps more. season total: 31.2" radar image from Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 1, 2014 Author Share Posted February 1, 2014 On Monday to Tuesday, the GFS has 3-5" for the cities and 6-12" for the mountains. I will go a little conservative and say 1 to 5" for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Strange AFD for park city area today. No long range or medium range mentioned. I'm on the phone only for the week. Anyone have any thoughts regarding the potential system for Monday night or Tuesday? It looks pretty good trip me yesterday bit haven't looked yet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 On Saturday, a strong trough will track through Utah, near the favored 4-corners spot.(favored for Denver) Looks like Utah and many parts of Colorado will get some snow. Maybe over 1 ft for the Wasatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Tuesday-Wednesday: The NAM and GFS have 6-12" for the mountains (as discussed before). Now both models are showing an area of 6" or more southeast of Denver. I would suppose that these areas need a winter storm watch, as they probably have lower thresholds for a winter storm watch/warning. The SREF max 24hr precip shows 0.5" to 1.25" in southeast Colorado, which would lead to 5 to 18" of snow. (0.5" with 10-1 ratio, up to 1.25" , with 15-1 snow ratio). Of course, the precip rarely gets to the max displayed on the SREF, usually only about 50-75% of the max. Areas around the cities seem to be 2.5 to 6". SREF plumes QPF has about 0.3" (average) for my area. That probably means at least 3" of snow for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 models tonight: NAM says 12 mm precip, GFS 10, RAP has a whopping 1.6 mm by nighttime tomorrow at APA. We'll see who's right! I don't know enough to tell but I have a feeling tomorrow will be pretty cold and dry around these parts. Radar has nothing at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 It seems like we have had maybe 1.2" to 1.5". The snow was very light for a while. On radar, it went from nothing detected, to 10dbz. So now it is accumulating maybe 0.3" per hour (again.) even though 10dbz sounds very low. In southeast Colorado, it appears that the heavier snow fell at nighttime, 3am to 5am. My guess is that 3" to 7" has already affected the Burlington, Lamar, La Junta, Springfield area. (based on LSRs from Pueblo and Goodland.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 4, 2014 Author Share Posted February 4, 2014 running total October: 3" November: 4" December: 7.1" early January: 4.4" mid January: 2.4" estimated late January: 4.0" Jan 30-31: 5.8" [Jan total: 16.6"] Feb 1: 2" total 32.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Death by a thousand single snowflakes: So far since 11/1 Denver has 18 days with measurable snowfall. Only 2 have over 3 inches, max 3.6 inches. Seems like the roads are slippery as often as not, but no plows ever needed, really. When will we get something substantial?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Looking favorable for steady snow some heavy in the mountains at least next 5 days and probably beyond Sent from my XT1058 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 It got to -13.9 here (-21.7 outside of town at Christman Field) -11 at Fort Collins-Loveland airport. I believe this is the coldest temp here since Dec. 9 2009. -27 at Greeley KGXY 051235Z AUTO 31004KT 10SM CLR M33/ A3036 RMK AO1 -18 at Denver KDEN 051225Z 13005KT 10SM OVC010 M28/M31 A3025 RMK AO2 T12781306 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 The models show the weekend system going north of us, with upslope snow for western Colorado. The NAM shows 10-30" for the mountains west of the divide. It also shows heavy snow for the Utah Wasatch and for California (up to 48", Sierra Nevada). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 this difference from normal map shows that Cheyenne was 44 degrees below average, for 6AM today. Fort Collins was about 33 degrees below the normal low temperature of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Looking good for big snow next 5 days Sent from my XT1058 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 This reminds me of 1994 in the east ------------ ..THE DENVER CO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 5 2014 CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1872 TO 2014 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL .............................................................. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM -1 223 PM 76 1963 45 -46 59 MINIMUM -19 520 AM -24 1989 17 -36 21 AVERAGE -10 31 -41 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 6, 2014 Author Share Posted February 6, 2014 high precipitation and snowfall amounts for the western mountains in the next 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 You know what's funny, this seems cold but not completely weird. However a departure of +41 (so a high of 85 and a low of 57 for example) would seem very much completely weird. I guess I just like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Impressive moisture coming in, snow and more snow Sent from my XT1058 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Holy inversions Batman. Temps 1000 feet higher are 25 degrees warmer this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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