Chinook Posted January 7, 2014 Author Share Posted January 7, 2014 Surprise warmups seem to happen a lot in Denver. It would seemingly depend a lot on wind, but obviously wind doesn't pick up every time it warms up. Fort Collins didn't get any warmup tonight (as of 10:05). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vandy Posted January 7, 2014 Share Posted January 7, 2014 Definitely a downslope event. Wind kicked up here in Boulder and we went from 14F to 40F in about ten minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 9, 2014 Author Share Posted January 9, 2014 Looks like the west Rockies could see 1-2 ft of snow soon, Cascades could get 3 to 5 ft of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 Looks like the west Rockies could see 1-2 ft of snow soon, Cascades could get 3 to 5 ft of snow. USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_120_2014_01_09_12z_GFS.gif And nothing for the snowless Sierra Nevada... Headline 6 months from now: "All Sierra Nevada forests burn in largest inferno in recorded history" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 9, 2014 Share Posted January 9, 2014 And the extended forecast for most of the West outside of the immediate Rockies and Cascades: Partly cloudy with a chance of severe boredom for the next 3 weeks. Highs around 5 degrees above normal. Rinse (but not with water), repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 We had temperatures up around freezing last night with downslope winds of 30-50mph next to the foothills here. I will call this a bora event since we were cooling down, and not jumping up to 50 degrees. I'm concerned about California too, although it doesn't directly affect me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 10, 2014 Author Share Posted January 10, 2014 61.7mph here, max wind gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 peak wind gusts: 53mph in the early morning, with a temperature of 51 degrees in the middle of the night. 52mph in the afternoon, with temps in the 30's. We got the cold front at 6:00AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 13, 2014 Author Share Posted January 13, 2014 max wind gust: 67.1mph at Fort Collins. wind is still howling here (3 out of the past 4 days!) NCAR Mesa wind plot (7 days) CSU-Foothills wind plot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 Just a little breezy for the after dinner stroll in the foothills: 0734 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 S EVERGREEN 39.59N 105.34W01/13/2014 M102 MPH JEFFERSON CO TRAINED SPOTTER Musta been some damage with that one. We're probably gusting into the low 40s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 according to my info on GRLevel3, this report was located on a ridge near Marshdale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 14, 2014 Share Posted January 14, 2014 If it's the area I'm thinking of, there are some open space parks on the ridges there that poke up around 8500 ft and are always windy. Still, nothing else reported over 90 mph makes me wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 Since the cold front came through, the winds have been less-than-howling, with wind gusts only 10-20mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 14, 2014 Author Share Posted January 14, 2014 I wonder if we will torch it up for Sunday, Broncos vs. Patriots. The NWS says 60 degrees for Denver. The GFS is showing pretty high 700mb temperatures then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 15, 2014 Share Posted January 15, 2014 Anyone know what the long range forecast looks like for Park City Utah / PCMR? The next week looks warm and dry per the NWS P&C, but how does the pattern look going forward? In broad strokes what sort of potential is there for winter weather enthusiasts outside of next week? I'll be spending a week at the base of PCMR in February and I'm hoping for some cold and snow. Thanks for any info! PS: What teleconnector changes should I be rooting for? As a NE guy we always wish for a -NAO. What do the mountain westies wish for? Thanks! PS: Go Pats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 15, 2014 Author Share Posted January 15, 2014 Answer to previous question Well, first of all, you have to look for that ridge to go down. Obviously the models are forecasting a strong ridge (as a strong positive PNA index) in the 8-10 day maps. So you may look for the PNA index to change to a lower value, but it doesn't have to be super negative. Overall, you look for a trough to form probably in Nevada or California, if you are trying to get snow in Utah. A look back to 2006 ( about 7 years ago). Blizzard In Action Colorado Christmas 2006 youtube video. This is not my video. snowfall plot http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/IMAGES/COOP/72HR/2006/20061222_072_total.png video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 16, 2014 Author Share Posted January 16, 2014 Fort Collins totals and anomalies for calendar year 2013 temperature: 0.3F below normal precipitation: 18.81", which is 117% of normal precipitation, mostly thanks to the days of flooding in September. We got out of the drought January 1 2013: we had D1 drought (moderate drought) right around the Front Range northern cities March - April 2013: D2 drought after the floods: no drought condition in the immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolMike Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Thanks Chinook! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Drought will be sneaking back up from the south and east here if the pattern doesn't change in the next couple months. And, Go Pats! (deflector shields up...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 told ya we would torch 50 degrees for the daily average is a +19 degrees. --------------..THE DENVER CO CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 19 2014 CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 65 159 PM MINIMUM 35 1152 PM AVERAGE 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 This is the total snow plume for Boulder (BJC-Jeffco) showing an amazing range of 0 to 7.5" possible. Now the actual NAM and GFS show 0.07" and 0.16" for Boulder (1" and 2.4", using 15-1 snow ratio.) So the SREF shows a higher average snowfall total and a higher range of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guru Of Reason Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 What do you think will happen in Aurora? This is the total snow plume for Boulder (BJC-Jeffco) showing an amazing range of 0 to 7.5" possible. Now the actual NAM and GFS show 0.07" and 0.16" for Boulder (1" and 2.4", using 15-1 snow ratio.) So the SREF shows a higher average snowfall total and a higher range of possibilities. Boulder_snow_plume.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Radar from about 9:00. The snow seemed to really show up on radar between 8:30 and 9:00, in this weird V pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 24, 2014 Share Posted January 24, 2014 we got 4" of the lightest possible fluff. I'm guessing the ratio was at least 25:1, maybe as much as 40:1. Made a hole all the way to the ground with one strong breath. Beautiful morning! Will be gone by tomorrow PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 24, 2014 Author Share Posted January 24, 2014 We got about 2.5" here. Maybe a little less 6.8 degrees at 12:10AM. 50.5 degrees at 12:40PM. difference: 43.7 perfect "banana belt" day with 52+ in the foothills and Denver, 32-40 in the plains below 4900ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 26, 2014 Author Share Posted January 26, 2014 The NAM has almost zero snow for us, but the GFS says 5-12 inches for Larimer County, Jackson County. Maybe we should get an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted January 27, 2014 Share Posted January 27, 2014 Busted. Not even a coating. Didn't get as cold as forecasted either. I was flying in to DIA last night around 10 PM and the moisture only extended up to around 9500 ft up by Fort Collins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 27, 2014 Author Share Posted January 27, 2014 We got about 1.5" of snow and the radar shows that Larimer County and Weld County are still getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 We had snow for a long time here- maybe 11:00PM Sunday to 4:00PM Monday, I got about 4". Some local storm reports show that there was 3-6" near Fort Collins, and 8" by the Poudre River and north Larimer County The NAM and GFS seem to be battling out the details with regard to the Rockies storm later this week. Yesterday's GFS had a lot of snow for Cheyenne-- now the GFS says Cheyenne gets almost none. The 4km NAM gives us no snow, and 22" for the Continental Divide (also 0 for Wyoming lowlands). I don't know which way this will trend, but we seem to get at least 1" from every recent snow event. The 0z ECMWF says there will be snow on Friday (this map is for 09z-Friday morning.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS and EC suggest 6 inches of snow in Elko is possible, though not quite the same way... do I dare believe that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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