ALhurricane Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 How will you get to Estes Park? US 36? I think US 34 is still closed for rebuilding. It's a shame that US 34 had damage. They designed it nicely after the 1976 flood. The contiguous US was a little bit below normal for October, with much of the western states around 2 to 4 degrees F below normal. Yeah we will take US 36 since they just reopened it. We thought we may have to cancel our trip after the devastating floods but we're glad we are able to go and support the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 12, 2013 Author Share Posted November 12, 2013 Both the 0z ECMWF and 12z ECMWF have some chills for us. 12z shows -12C in my area in 168 hours. 00z shows about -6C for the early evening, that is, 00z in 168 hours. Both runs bring a deep trough to Wyoming and Idaho in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 No moisture though... another glancing blow of cold to freeze whatever hoses were left out, before the whole thing gets shunted east and makes headlines in the upper Midwest and Texas? Kind of boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 14, 2013 Share Posted November 14, 2013 I got >12 dings and crack in the windshield and both driver's side windows of my truck on the way to work that morning when I drove through what I'm calling a "rocknado" near the bottom of Boulder Canyon. It looked like I was about to drive through a big dust devil, but then it sounded like a group of people all flung a handful of rocks at me at once. A Boulder windstorm happened, with peak gusts to 70mph at NCAR Mesa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 15, 2013 Author Share Posted November 15, 2013 The big mountain is not white enough! We gotta get some more snow up there. RMNP web cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 16, 2013 Author Share Posted November 16, 2013 this morning, there was a calm wind, then 30mph+ gusts just a few minutes later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 We gusted 60+ yesterday near Ned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 18, 2013 Author Share Posted November 18, 2013 The latest GFS gives us very cold and snowy conditions late this week. I wonder if this will verify. Seems like the previous runs of the GFS had us at about 30 with very light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 18, 2013 Share Posted November 18, 2013 The latest GFS gives us very cold and snowy conditions late this week. I wonder if this will verify. Seems like the previous runs of the GFS had us at about 30 with very light snow. 18Z still on board, though showing slightly lesser amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 19, 2013 Author Share Posted November 19, 2013 18Z still on board, though showing slightly lesser amounts. Yes, this has about 3" for us and 6" for SD/Nebraska border. That's pretty impressive for the flatlands considering it seems to be mostly at the 700mb front, with little surface convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted November 19, 2013 Share Posted November 19, 2013 Neither the NWS nor Joel (opensnow.com) are buying the modeled precip amounts. They're both saying the models are overdoing it due to the abundance of moisture forecast, and that the lack of sufficient wind and upper-level cold will likely limit the actual snow production. I'm rooting for the models this time. Yes, this has about 3" for us and 6" for SD/Nebraska border. That's pretty impressive for the flatlands considering it seems to be mostly at the 700mb front, with little surface convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 20, 2013 Author Share Posted November 20, 2013 I might as well post the 4km and 12km NAM images for this storm. The 4km NAM doesn't seem to excited about amounts over 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 San Juans look to be where it's at. But things seem to be trending colder so maybe we'll get a lot of fluff. In any case tomorrow morning's commute could really s**k. Drained the hoses and brought 'em in this afternoon. Last flowers will probably bite the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 we have snow covering the grass. At midnight, some snow bands were traveling south, some traveling north. Loop of radar at midnight MST http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KFTG∏=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20131121&endTime=7&duration=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 we have snow covering the grass. At midnight, some snow bands were traveling south, some traveling north. Loop of radar at midnight MST http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KFTG∏=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20131121&endTime=7&duration=1 Interesting... based on that radar it looks like a nice convergence zone right around the Arapahoe/Douglas county line, perhaps 3-4 miles from us. But no enhanced snow cover to go with it really, at 8 AM there was no more than 2" at my house and that is generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 23, 2013 Author Share Posted November 23, 2013 In October, I got about 4" in my backyard. On Thursday, I had about 3" which fell in the morning and late afternoon. November normal snowfall for Denver is 7.7", and 8.6" for Fort Collins Fort Collins October 2013 2.9 degrees F below normal. Total monthly precipitation was 1.68". Total monthly snowfall was 3.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 25, 2013 Author Share Posted November 25, 2013 We got a 4-corners low. Where's the blizzard? I guess things just didn't line up in the lower troposphere. Of course, the models didn't predict any precip up here in north Colorado today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 30, 2013 Author Share Posted November 30, 2013 The 12z GFS predicts temperatures well below 0 on Thursday- Friday. In fact it might be the greatest arctic outbreak here since 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 images I grabbed from Ryan Maue twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 1, 2013 Author Share Posted December 1, 2013 12z GFS snow totals (84 hours) CFS forecast for 6-10 days, 8-14 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 now this looks exciting for many areas of the USA Front Range Urban Corridor: THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORMWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE...HEAVIEST NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I have placed a topic in the general forum regarding the revised NWS snow measurement guide... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41853-new-nws-snow-measurement-guide/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 GFS MOS extended for me GFSX MOS (MEX) KFNL GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/02/2013 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 TUE 03| WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09|TUE CLIMO N/X 32 51| 14 19| -3 11|-14 17| -3 27| 5 29| 12 37| 12 17 45 TMP 41 35| 19 10| 0 4|-12 11| 2 22| 9 22| 19 29| 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newtownwx Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 I'm not too far up the road from you, Chinook - currently living in Laramie. Should be an interesting (and chilly!) week. GFSX has us getting down to -32 Thursday morning. NAM is a bit warmer at -23 ! At least we should get a solid dumping out of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Thinking I should go buy two Lithium AA batteries today for my indoor/outdoor thermometer. In the past, it stopped recording at around -5F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 3, 2013 Author Share Posted December 3, 2013 It is still 46 degrees and mostly sunny here GFSX MOS (MEX) KFNL GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/03/2013 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10|WED CLIMO N/X 16 17| -9 8|-15 14| -6 15| 1 20| 1 15| 1 28| 10 17 44 TMP 20 7| -6 1|-12 9| -2 9| 4 15| 6 10| 6 21| 15 DPT 9 3|-13 -7|-13 -1| -7 5| 0 6| -1 2| 0 9| 6 CLD OV OV| OV PC| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| OV OV| PC CL| PC WND 21 16| 16 3| 5 5| 5 5| 6 5| 4 9| 6 4| 4 P12 78 66| 13 3| 6 5| 3 9| 24 19| 5 6| 5 1| 0999999 P24 86| 13| 9| 9| 26| 9| 8| 999 Q12 2 1| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| 0 0| | Q24 2| 0| 0| 0| 0| 0| | SNW 8| 0| 0| 0| 1| 0| | Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 3, 2013 Share Posted December 3, 2013 Ours... wouldn't be surprised if the lows are 5-10 degrees too warm on one or more mornings... GFSX MOS (MEX) KEKO GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/03/2013 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 WED 04| THU 05| FRI 06| SAT 07| SUN 08| MON 09| TUE 10|WED CLIMO N/X 6 20| -4 18| 3 27| 13 26| -5 17| -5 23| -1 32| 7 16 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 We have about an inch of snow. The temperature dropped from 46 to 17 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted December 4, 2013 Share Posted December 4, 2013 Half an inch here, 20 F after a high of 56. Dropped about 25 degrees in 2 hours this afternoon. I'm a bit skeptical we'll get that much snow, doesn't seem like there are a lot of ingredients in place, but there's plenty of time. Seems like we always get less than most of the models indicate a day in advance. NAM sez 9 mm, GFS 17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 4, 2013 Author Share Posted December 4, 2013 Things got very white here. 5 to 6.5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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