famartin Posted September 27, 2013 Share Posted September 27, 2013 Winter's here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 Pac Northwest storm with some hi-res models showing 9" of rain in 48 hours. Rain is already pounding the coast. Monday we should see some gale force winds in Montana and Wyoming (maybe for me too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 28, 2013 Share Posted September 28, 2013 Pac Northwest storm with some hi-res models showing 9" of rain in 48 hours. Rain is already pounding the coast. Monday we should see some gale force winds in Montana and Wyoming (maybe for me too.) 2013_09_28_hrw-arw_wus_048_precip_p48.gif Going to be our first more significant wind storm of the year. Just a straight downpour right now. If the 18z NAM is on the right track for tomorrow with regards to the track of the secondary low, this could be quite the event, with divergence in the left exit region of a ~160 kt upper jet streak providing support for rapid deepening/evolution of this low, could be some substantial damaging winds with this feature. A lot of this moisture is associated with the remnants of Typhoon Pabuk. Edit: 18z GFS has a sub-976 mb low just off the coast of Vancouver Island valid 03z Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 28, 2013 Author Share Posted September 28, 2013 The NWS analysis already had a 968mb in the ocean WSW of Juneau this morning. That's pretty deep for September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Wind warning for Metro Vancouver continued Damaging winds are forecast for Sunday evening when gusts could approach 100 km/h. This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..listen for updated statements. A strong early season cold front crossed the South Coast late this afternoon accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds. In its wake heavy showers and gusty winds will gradually ease later this evening. A second storm is expected to impact the South Coast Sunday evening. The associated low pressure centre is forecast to make landfall along Central Vancouver Island in the evening. While there remains some uncertainty in the precise track, storms with this trajectory have resulted in significant wind damage in the past. The current forecast indicates that strong southeast winds of 60 to 80 km/h ahead of the low will shift to damaging westerly winds with gusts approaching 100 km/h in its wake. Additionally in Howe Sound and the Fraser Valley east region near Hope further rainfall totals of 60 to 90 mm are expected by early Monday morning. They are bang on with the bolded regarding the second low making landfall tomorrow. Regional 4km GFS showed gusts in excess of hurricane force over the Strait of Georgia tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 29, 2013 Share Posted September 29, 2013 Stern warning from SEW for tonight...the 12z NAM was pretty phenomenal. URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA1107 AM PDT SUN SEP 29 2013...POWERFUL AND DAMAGING WINDSTORM TO AFFECT PARTS OF WESTERNWASHINGTON TONIGHT....EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTERTHAT WILL MAKE LANDFALL THIS EVENING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE FARNORTH WASHINGTON COAST AND CENTRAL VANCOUVER ISLAND THIS EVENING.THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE ONE OF THE STRONGEST SEPTEMBERWINDSTORMS ON RECORD. NORTHWEST WASHINGTON...FROM THE NORTH COASTTHROUGH THE STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND THE NORTH INTERIOR...WILLBE AT THE GREATEST RISK FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 So was there a wind event? I can't tell from the brief look at the UCAR/RAP surface page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 Tornado confirmed near Seattle today. http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Possible-tornado-damages-buildings-in-Frederickson-225810071.html?abc=x5KdkIO Am am impressed by 85mph wind. It must be called Hurricane Ridge for a reason! 0728 PM NON-TSTM WND GST HURRICANE RIDGE 48.00N 123.48W 09/29/2013 M85.00 MPH CLALLAM WA PARK/FOREST SRVC 0755 PM NON-TSTM WND DMG DOWNTOWN PORTLAND 45.52N 122.68W 09/29/2013 MULTNOMAH OR UTILITY COMPANY ABOUT 22000 PGE CUSTOMERS WITHOUT POWER ACROSS PORTLAND METRO AREA...MOSTLY IN MULTNOMAH COUNTY. 0756 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE TILLAMOOK 45.45N 123.83W 09/29/2013 M71.00 MPH TILLAMOOK OR TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 The 108-hour GFS shows some snow for lower elevations of Wyoming, cold gale force winds, 998mb low in Nebraska. ECMWF also shows about the same low pressure area, (sub-1000 in Minneapolis later), heavy precipitation for Friday, in Wyoming and Colorado, Temps and thicknesses suggest snow in Wyoming, higher elevations of Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Cut Bank Montana 0354 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW CUT BANK 48.61N 112.38W 09/30/2013 M68 MPH GLACIER MT ASOS 68 MPH WIND GUST AT THE CUT BANK AIRPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Some snow up at pass level in the Bitterroot Mountains south of Hamilton, MT. Pretty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Very heavy rainfall and snowfall totals being shown on the 18z GFS, for the weekend storm here in WY/CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 Looks like a classic setup for an early season upsloping event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 1, 2013 Author Share Posted October 1, 2013 Looks like a classic setup for an early season upsloping event. I think I can reasonably say that it's a bombogenesis in mountainous areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 From the State Climatologist office, CSU weather station September total monthly precipitation was 6.09” and was 4.76” above the normal for the month (458% of normal). It was the 3rd wettest September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 I am hearing thunder here. It is the first time I have heard thunder in the month of October in Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 1/2 to 1 inch on cars and grassy surfaces even way down in our neighborhood! 5700 vs 5300 ft seemed to make a difference this AM. And the flowers had been looking so nice after the rain... go figure. Any reports from foothills, especially north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 some areas in Larimer and Weld County got over 2" 1015 AM SNOW 13 ENE NUNN 40.78N 104.55W 10/04/2013 M2.5 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER 0745 AM SNOW 7 E VIRGINIA DALE 40.97N 105.22W 10/04/2013 M2.1 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER 0715 AM SNOW 3 WNW PINGREE PARK 40.58N 105.63W 10/04/2013 M3.0 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER 0644 AM SNOW HEREFORD 40.97N 104.30W 10/04/2013 M1.0 INCH WELD CO TRAINED SPOTTER 0639 AM SNOW 8 NE FOUR CORNERS 40.94N 105.80W 10/04/2013 M3.5 INCH LARIMER CO TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 6, 2013 Author Share Posted October 6, 2013 Weather models are showing a closed 500mb low in NV/UT on Thursday, with dry/warm in front of it. Perhaps some more wet weather for NV UT and WY around Thursday and Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2013 Author Share Posted October 8, 2013 news story about Tim Samaras in the Denver Post Young was out in the field with his storm-chasing partner of 11 years, Tim Sa- maras, and Tim’s 24-year-old son, Paul, who handled much of the photography for the Colorado-based research team dubbed TWISTEX. Like many others who expect- ed tornadoes that day, they converged on the Oklahoma City area — http://extras.mnginteractive.com/live/media/site36/2013/1006/20131006_112358_MDA-1-20131007-REGIONAL.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 8, 2013 Share Posted October 8, 2013 I've been following this series, that ran Sunday to today. Tragic for sure. Really interesting and makes me wonder if I ever really do want to go chase tornadoes (never done it before but thought about it a lot). It sounds a lot more complicated than one would think! Find supercell, point car at supercell, look for tornado, follow tornado, eat fast food. Not exactly. Well, maybe the fast food part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 8, 2013 Author Share Posted October 8, 2013 only time you'll see a snow water content map with all sections at 200%+ of normal http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/snotelanom/basinswe.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 Copper Mountain AWOS (KCCU) seems to be down. That's the highest AWOS that I know of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Copper Mountain AWOS (KCCU) seems to be down. That's the highest AWOS that I know of. K0CO (Berthoud Pass) is a bit higher, around 12,400 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted October 9, 2013 Share Posted October 9, 2013 Since the pass itself is almost 1,000 feet lower, where is the AWOS? Is it by one of those buildings up high just east of the pass (Google maps calls it "Colorado Mines Peak")? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 9, 2013 Author Share Posted October 9, 2013 there are two stations. One is an AWOS, one is a mesonet (See Mesowest for details if needed) not located on the same mountain, nor at the same elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 10, 2013 Author Share Posted October 10, 2013 Big drought improvement. As recently as July 9th, 100% of Colorado was in D1-D4 drought categories. Now, only 38% of Colorado is in drought (D1-D4) http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DataArchive/Tables.aspx?CO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Looks like a respectable windstorm is on tap for the foothills tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 11, 2013 Author Share Posted October 11, 2013 Looks like a respectable windstorm is on tap for the foothills tonight. There go the trash cans! We got a little bit of rain tonight. I was impressed by the severe squall line out in east Colorado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 There go the trash cans! We got a little bit of rain tonight. I was impressed by the severe squall line out in east Colorado. Mesa lab officially gusted to 79.4 mph, although peak sustained wind speed was only 39.6 mph. Maybe not a significant event but nonetheless notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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