Chinook Posted August 23, 2013 Author Share Posted August 23, 2013 The northern Front Range has moderate CAPE, a medium-high PW (precipitable water values) and some southerly flow today. I think some thunderstorms will be in the area. 0-6km shear of 20 knots is not too favorable for severe weather. Slow storm motions may be a cause for concern (again) with flash floods. DIA new record report: WET PRECIPITATION (IN) YESTERDAY 1.94R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 24, 2013 Author Share Posted August 24, 2013 Ridge of death, monsoonal moisture. The NAM and GFS say that very little precip will be east of the Front Range/Continental Divide but a lot will be west of it. The 7-day precip analysis shows a similar theme, but shows the rain around Denver that fell two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 25, 2013 Author Share Posted August 25, 2013 Southwest US precipitation in the past day or two. Some areas over 6" in the California desert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 26, 2013 Share Posted August 26, 2013 Some really heavy rain moving into the Las Vegas metro now. Doppler estimates over 6" in the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted August 27, 2013 Share Posted August 27, 2013 Warm night, lows in the low to mid 60s around the metro area. I feel another record coming on sometime this week. 94 at DEN on Wed would be vulnerable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 29, 2013 Author Share Posted August 29, 2013 For the Fort Collins official climate record, the last 11 months (Sep 2012-July 2013) have averaged out to just 0.05F above normal. In September, November and June, we had relative heat such that they were 3.0F or more above normal, but the cold anomalies balanced them out. Compare this to the time period September 2011 to June 2012. This time period averaged at a scorching 3.02F above normal. Actually 2012 as a whole was 3.2F above... the warmest year on record. I found an interesting fact. According to the NCDC "State of the Climate, 2012" web page, the USA was 3.2F above normal for 2012. The exact same number as Fort Collins. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 A tale of two Augusts... looking over the DEN climate summary for August, the month as a whole was +2.1 F but more remarkable was the second half- looking at the daily departures and averaging, the last 15 days were just over +7 on average. Wow. Sept does not look to change that much, so far. Will be nice to have some high temps around 80 some day soon, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 2, 2013 Author Share Posted September 2, 2013 Yesterday we had 79 or 80, with dew points above 50. I think Fort Collins will have some more 90 or 91s before the ridge breaks down. The ridge will break down slowly. Some CFS runs have us below normal for Sep 16-29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 4, 2013 Author Share Posted September 4, 2013 This is the GFS forecast meteogram (06z). There are several days with 32C with 15-16C at 700mb on the GFS 3-hourly temps. This is bad news, as it could be 34C (93F) or higher as the highs. As a side note, it was 97 in northern Montana yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 5, 2013 Author Share Posted September 5, 2013 There is a 70 dBz storm with radar-detected 3" hail near Boise. (1.5" hail report) There also was a tornado warning in Oregon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 Amazing weather for the NW. I was in Seattle in mid-July and experienced what would be a typical thunderstorm here- no hail, heavy rain, moderate C-G lightning and quite loud, for maybe an hour. The locals were all over it the next morning. Meanwhile, DEN has had 3 records in 3 days: record high today, record high minimum yesterday, and record high minimum the day before. MOre to come this weekend... I wish the pools hadn't closed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 Amazing weather for the NW. I was in Seattle in mid-July and experienced what would be a typical thunderstorm here- no hail, heavy rain, moderate C-G lightning and quite loud, for maybe an hour. The locals were all over it the next morning. Meanwhile, DEN has had 3 records in 3 days: record high today, record high minimum yesterday, and record high minimum the day before. MOre to come this weekend... I wish the pools hadn't closed! Two more records. Most points scored against the Ravens in team history, highest point differential loss by defending Super Bowl team on opening weekend. (I think that's what the article said.) Yesterday (Sep. 5) was 12 degrees above average here Today (Sep. 6) the low was 65, perhaps a record high minimum. Year to date precip: 10.37" Normal year to date precip: 12.57" Fort Collins temperature departures for this summer June +3.8F July +0.1F August +1.7F The last half of August must have been +4F or +5F or something like that. August precip: 0.57", which is 1.03" below normal. We are falling behind on precipitation, and it is looking more like a drought locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 +6F to +10F in the northern plains, WY, MT, MN, IA in the past 14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 I think today is the hottest day I've seen in September for any local area I've lived in. 95.6 at Fort Collins CSU. September of last year couldn't top that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 forecast discussion AT THIS TIME SO HIGHS OF 95-100 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SEEMREASONABLE. IF WE HIT THE 98 AT DENVER THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE INTHE FORECAST THAT WOULD MAKE IT THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURE EVERRECORDED IN SEPTEMBER AND THIS LATE IN THE SUMMER SINCE RECORDSBEGAN IN 1872. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 6, 2013 Author Share Posted September 6, 2013 A supercell went over a mountain range near Helena and keeps on going towards Great Falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I think today is the hottest day I've seen in September for any local area I've lived in. 95.6 at Fort Collins CSU. September of last year couldn't top that. Sounds about right. I would have to check Sept 1985 when I was in college in Providence in a dorm with no air conditioning. I remember some records were set then. This afternoon's high and not-quite all time Sept record in DEN: in the words of the immortal Maxwell Smart, "Missed it by THAT much!" EDIT: Easier to find than I thought. Not even close. High on 9/5/85 in Providence was only 88, though with humidity it probably felt like 120. EDIT #2: actually, no record for today for me. I lived in Durham NC in 1990 where it was 98.1 F on 9/8/90. Climatespy.com is a cool site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Sounds about right. I would have to check Sept 1985 when I was in college in Providence in a dorm with no air conditioning. I remember some records were set then. This afternoon's high and not-quite all time Sept record in DEN: in the words of the immortal Maxwell Smart, "Missed it by THAT much!" EDIT: Easier to find than I thought. Not even close. High on 9/5/85 in Providence was only 88, though with humidity it probably felt like 120. EDIT #2: actually, no record for today for me. I lived in Durham NC in 1990 where it was 98.1 F on 9/10/90. Climatespy.com is a cool site. Sure you aren't thinking of 1983? That year was a torch in PVD, with high 90s and even a 100 on 9/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 7, 2013 Author Share Posted September 7, 2013 KFNL 062015Z 20003KT 3SM CLR 37/09 37C (99F) with a thunderstorm and a flash flood warning in my county today, over the burn area. The FFW text said that mud washed over the road. The outflow breezes we got cooled us to 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 I think today is the hottest day I've seen in September for any local area I've lived in. 95.6 at Fort Collins CSU. September of last year couldn't top that. High of 94 at my house yesterday, hottest Sep high that I can remember experiencing anywhere. However, it seems the cooldown has begun. Had a low of 56 this morning, DEN hit 57 which is their first sub-60 low of the month. Running a few degrees cooler than yesterday at this time. Highs in the 70s next week! Looks like the September record for Fort Collins is 97 from 1990. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 8, 2013 Author Share Posted September 8, 2013 Yes, both Denver and Fort Collins both had a record high of 97, two days ago. For Denver, it ties the highest ever temperature in the month of September (as far as I can figure, based on the NWS web site.) From what you said, I guess that 97 also ties the Sep. record for Fort Collins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Sure you aren't thinking of 1983? That year was a torch in PVD, with high 90s and even a 100 on 9/11. My dorm in 1983 had air conditioning, so I didn't remember it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 9, 2013 Author Share Posted September 9, 2013 I think the models have a pretty good chance of rain for the Front Range cities tomorrow. QPF looks decent, probabilities look decent on the SREF, CAPE should be under 1000 J/kg. Normally the convective rain forecasts for our area are not too good, but this time at least there is a front to focus the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 You guys up north (Chinook, tacoman25) must be getting pretty soggy. We have not had a single drop of rain here. Hopefully as the high weakens and continues to move east we'll get in on the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 I heard several nice rumbles of thunder, maybe 20 minutes worth this afternoon. The rain was barely coming down at that time. Now after 7:00, it has picked up, that is, light rain, maybe 0.05". Sometimes 40dbz on radar means a lot of rain, sometimes it means a little. Kind of like 25dbz for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 10, 2013 Author Share Posted September 10, 2013 It rained more overnight. 0.52" to 1.04" in Fort Collins. Our average September precipitation is just 1.38" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Pretty amazing rain last 24 hrs here, about 1.3" at our house with some decent street flooding just north around rush hour yesterday. Lots of pea gravel and some larger stones in the streets. Starting to pour again. Feels downright tropical- small fine heavy heavy drops. No wind at all though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Tons of rain here the past 48 hours as well. Up to 1.50" or so in that time frame. A few heavy downpours, but mostly just steady light rain off and on. I've seen bigger rain events here, for sure. But the unusual aspect of this one is the steady nature of the precip, along with little temp variation. Between 8 pm Monday and now, my temps have only ranged between 57 and 63. Pretty unusual, and it looks like that will continue today. Currently 59 with light rain/heavy drizzle and fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 Welcome to Seattle. From 7 PM through 11 AM, the ASOS at APA had a choice of two temperatures: 59 or 60. Saves on cooling bills for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted September 11, 2013 Share Posted September 11, 2013 The steady light rain just won't stop here in Boulder. This is like one of those winter events that just keep going along the foothills and Boulder ends up with like a foot of snow, while DEN gets 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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