Chinook Posted March 31, 2013 Share Posted March 31, 2013 This is my 1000th post. We have been doing the previous Mountain West thread since June 5th. That is 299 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 2, 2013 Author Share Posted April 2, 2013 Looks like a few areas of rain and snow are coming through the Front Range area. It felt a little chilly today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 4, 2013 Author Share Posted April 4, 2013 The GFS is showing heavy snow for our area for Tuesday. Looks like this upper level low will be pretty close to the Front Range area. Here's a 168 hour total 500mb vorticity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Back from vacation in Florida- really good to see some green and go in the ocean! Wow- quite a model depiction- have to say I am really ready for Spring- largely because all my weekends through May 6th are unavailable for skiing due to travel and other junk. Evans and Longs sure looked pretty today!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 5, 2013 Share Posted April 5, 2013 Haven't been following it closely, but today's 12Z ECMWF sure looked juicy for some heavy upslope snow along the foothills Mon / Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 6, 2013 Author Share Posted April 6, 2013 Wow. The ECMWF has 0.5" in 3 hours in Larimer County at 06z Tuesday. It shows QPF of 1.3" or more in 12 hours for the Larimer County mountains. The GFS runs have been hopping around. Some runs of the GFS have 1.0" of QPF for me, others have near zero to 0.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 6, 2013 Share Posted April 6, 2013 12Z models are disagreeing with one another a ton- in terms of precip anyway (why am I not surprised) with NAM shooting this thing way up north and giving us 9 mm of precip (at APA), and the GFS around 20 mm. Where do you find the ECMWF output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 6, 2013 Author Share Posted April 6, 2013 The GFS still has a large amount of snow for Laramie, Weld, Cheyenne and Laramie for this storm. I'm not sure I'm ready to see that much white. Bring it on if it busts some of the drought! The 12z NAM shows a major snowstorm for eastern Wyoming, all the way up to Montana. This seems to be out of touch with reality. I am looking at the ECMWF precip on http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap (switch to model data, choose ECMWF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 7, 2013 Author Share Posted April 7, 2013 The reason the GFS is showing so much snow for the Front Range cities is because the 500mb takes on a bit of an east-west orientation while it is in southern Colorado. Also, there seems to be a 700-850mb cold air damming feature predicted, such that our areas are below 32 some time around the onset of precipitation, and stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 The reason the GFS is showing so much snow for the Front Range cities is because the 500mb takes on a bit of an east-west orientation while it is in southern Colorado. Also, there seems to be a 700-850mb cold air damming feature predicted, such that our areas are below 32 some time around the onset of precipitation, and stay that way. It's always a tough call before the S/W gets onshore. Looks like a decent event at least for the front range cities with the potential for something bigger if that storm is less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Working today (Sunday) so that I can take Wednesday off. One last powder day at Eldora! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 7, 2013 Author Share Posted April 7, 2013 Working today (Sunday) so that I can take Wednesday off. One last powder day at Eldora! Who programmed the NAM model anyway? It says 48" for the Wyoming plains. I think the NAM has gone downhill since it was the Eta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Denver is under a Winter Storm Watch http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Denver&state=CO&site=BOU&textField1=39.75&textField2=-104.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 7, 2013 Share Posted April 7, 2013 Models trending farther north, so a lot drier for the metro area... but also colder. (??) Ick. Could really use the moisture regardless of what form. And the forecasts from BOU are running late, not a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 7, 2013 Author Share Posted April 7, 2013 The NAM, 4km NAM, and WPC (formerly HPC) are showing higher chances for over 12" of snow in eastern Wyoming now. It still could be a big one for my county. We would like as much snow as we can get at RMNP and the Medicine Bow ranges, for summer water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWx Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Any thoughts for my area on the Wasatch Front in Provo? I see the NWS has a high wind watch for me but these downslope wind events almost never verify here. The only thing that may help is that normally springtime makes it easier for the winds to mix down convectively. So strong NW winds as the surface low passes to the south with mod-heavy rain followed by possibly snow depending on how quick the cold air can move in but before it dries things out too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 the No Accumulation Model strikes again... hope it's wrong... feeling like Bust-O-Rama #2 on the season. The trends have been pretty consistent the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 I guess I agree. Still 4" is pretty big for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 12Z NAM gives a bit more hope than the 6Z for the Front Range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 8, 2013 Author Share Posted April 8, 2013 The 4km NAM blasts Wyoming, around 4-6" around here, only 6-10" for high mountains: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 8, 2013 Share Posted April 8, 2013 Maybe I'm glad I don't have to forecast for a living. Seems like there must be 1 or 2 variables that are right on the hairy edge that must be leading to such divergent forecasts. Strength of jet stream and how much the upper low consequently digs south must be 1 of them. It looks like the most energetic part of the jet is still offshore in the Pacific. Do the models have trouble capturing data because of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 The north winds already came through here at 4:00. The winds are pretty gusty. All weather elements are colliding on Fort Collins now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 The north winds already came through here at 4:00. The winds are pretty gusty. All weather elements are colliding on Fort Collins now. Always amazing to watch the temp drop on the front range. I start out at 36f I can't get down to 32f, but in Ft Collins it goes from 60- 30 in 3 hrs. An incredible temp contrast sets up across Nebraska, have to see if that enhances snowfall there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Have to say this is very cool. Tornado and blizzard warnings within 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 I can't believe the amount of tornado warnings during that basketball game. They were all over the screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 Rock Springs, WY. Nearly a hurricane with snow KRKS 090429Z AUTO 06046G59KT 1/2SM FZFG BLSN VV010 M09/M12 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 06059/0429KRKS 090213Z AUTO 06046G60KT 1 1/4SM -SN OVC017 M07/M11 A2957 RMK AO2 PK WND 05060/0212 P0000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Some incredible April weather in WY and NE. Cheyenne WY is currently 9 degrees, and Alliance NE is 11 degrees with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 It hasn't snowed too much yet. It is snowing decently right now. This is sort of a bust compared to the winter storm warning for 6-11" issued yesterday. Garden City Kansas: freezing rain and wind gust to 39 knots. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Highs are 40 degrees off the average. Pretty incredible to see that kind of cold during the day in almost mid April. I know big April winter storms aren't that uncommon in the mountain west, but how unprecedented are these kind of daytime temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Highs are 40 degrees off the average. Pretty incredible to see that kind of cold during the day in almost mid April. I know big April winter storms aren't that uncommon in the mountain west, but how unprecedented are these kind of daytime temps? Welp, when you consider the old record low max was 27, and today the max was 24 (at midnight... max during the day at DIA was 16), that's pretty uncommon. Given the non-magnitude of the snow most places, the cold should be much bigger news. Then again, you don't have to plow cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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