Jon Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Sup all. I'm new at the whole scientific aspect of meteorology, know what I'm looking for in the winter for winter storms in the SE but for severe season....am I basically just looking for the same thing on the models? A strong low pressure system? How can you tell which one is going to be severe etc? What maps do you look at, just the regular 500mb heights, 850 temps, and i'm assuming looking at the RH is helpful...anything else? There are multiple types of storms for severe weather but large tornadic outbreaks are somewhat similar I would say. Yes, it's a LP system and there's usually a shortwave involved...the difference here is moisture WITH heat...with heat comes instability. You basically need high instability, moisture, lift, shear, etc.... Most storms form as multicells, a squall line (which the main threat there is straight line winds) or a supercell. That's what we want. It would take me forever to explain every little aspect, but this site is good (and does a much better job): http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe when using models, http://www.twisterdata.com/ is very helpful due to the instability tab. http://www.theweatherprediction.com/severe/indices/ will guide you for what you're looking at for those measurements under the tab, it can also help with soundings that spit out SVR values or if you extract text from a model site with SVR values. Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Wilkes said Denver doesn't get tornadoes. Actually I never specifically said that. I said tornados limited to eastern CO unspecifically. Which was mostly the case this time around too for any chasing purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Actually I never specifically said that. I said tornados limited to eastern CO unspecifically. Which was mostly the case this time around too for any chasing purposes. I see you are working on the DT model of backtracking and denial when you say something that doesn't pan out.Tornadoes confined to far eastern CO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 The IQ level of this forum has dropped substancially since last year. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Indeed I feel bad for america if this is what the youth has to offer as the best and the brightest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 From DenverGov: Tornadoes: Tornadoes are the most widely feared and publicized natural hazards in Colorado. During 1996, a total of 96 tornadoes occurred in Colorado, heightening concerns that these powerful phenomenons may be increasing to cataclysmic frequencies. The metro area, in particular, serves as a site for the development of severe thunderstorms. Due to the "Denver Cyclone" effect, severe spring weather is a major concern for Denver. These storms create cloud to ground lightning strikes, heavy rain with flooding potential, severe hail, and tornadoes. On June 15, 1988, a group of tornadoes passed over the metro area. Two areas of the city suffered heavy damage due to tornado touch downs. On June 2, 1993, an F-1 rated tornado struck Denver. According to the National Weather Service, there have been 11 tornado touch downs in Denver between 1950 and 1989. The Fujita scale rates intensity of tornadoes with F0 for weak storms with wind rotation below 73 mph, and F5 for violent storms with rotation speeds of 261 to 318 mph. Fortunately, the tornadoes in the Denver area are usually rated F0 to F1 (with rotation speeds of 73 to 112 mph). While the tornadoes that occur in Denver are relatively weak compared to those in the Mid-West, the potential for injury, loss of life and property damage remains high. Most injuries that occur in these events are the result of flying debris, especially broken glass. The tornado threat is with us every spring, and is extremely high during the months of May, June and July. The intensity of these events and the potential for damages and injury should not be underestimated. It only takes one to ruin a life. I remember here in the town of Lexington, we finally got our tornados on August 16, 1994. They came in a series of 4. One being F-3 (before the EF scale). I happened to be too young, but remember being in the local Kroger where it crossed the parking lot. This was the F-3 taken next to K-Mart and Food Lion as it crossed in front of Kroger. Kroger is now a state office next to Lizards Thicket and Blockbuster for those familiar with this area. To this day, there are still signs of it's damage path on back roads next to wooded areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 What the ****? Severe thunderstorm warnings with temps in the 10s and 20s. Incredible. Never seen severe thunderstorm warnings with all pink in the box. Thats where all the severe thunderstorm warnings have been. Damn whats falling out the sky? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 What the ****? Severe thunderstorm warnings with temps in the 10s and 20s. Incredible. Never seen severe thunderstorm warnings with all pink in the box. Thats where all the severe thunderstorm warnings have been. Damn whats falling out the sky? In Nova Scotia today, the ocean rose by 25 feet. What we have feared the last few days has indeed happened. The cold front moving down from the Arctic has created an enormous storm system, which incredible as it sounds, looks more like a tropical hurricane. If this system moves south, we could see a wind-driven storm surge that could threaten the entire eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 In Nova Scotia today, the ocean rose by 25 feet. What we have feared the last few days has indeed happened. The cold front moving down from the Arctic has created an enormous storm system, which incredible as it sounds, looks more like a tropical hurricane. If this system moves south, we could see a wind-driven storm surge that could threaten the entire eastern seaboard. What do the GFS and Euro show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 In Nova Scotia today, the ocean rose by 25 feet. What we have feared the last few days has indeed happened. The cold front moving down from the Arctic has created an enormous storm system, which incredible as it sounds, looks more like a tropical hurricane. If this system moves south, we could see a wind-driven storm surge that could threaten the entire eastern seaboard. I thought that was going to happen Thursday, the day after tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Texas, one of the few states in the US that can have sites reporting 107 degrees and winter weather advisories at other sites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 In Nova Scotia today, the ocean rose by 25 feet. What we have feared the last few days has indeed happened. The cold front moving down from the Arctic has created an enormous storm system, which incredible as it sounds, looks more like a tropical hurricane. If this system moves south, we could see a wind-driven storm surge that could threaten the entire eastern seaboard. It's amazing how it does that every day, twice a day, and it's even worse at the height of spring. I bet it would be a fun day trip to witness this freak occurrence (that isn't really freak since it happens with such regularity). I thought that was going to happen Thursday, the day after tomorrow. Nice. I see what you did there, jburns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 What do the GFS and Euro show? All our grid models are worthless. I don't think grid models are going to be a lot of help here. The Canadians are reporting tremendous circulation moving in from the Arctic. In Siberia, there's a low-pressure system unlike anything we've seen and Austraila just saw the strongest typhoon ever recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Texas, one of the few states in the US that can have sites reporting 107 degrees and winter weather advisories at other sites. They say if lightning is going to strike you should grab your ankles and stick your ass in the air. If you're going to be struck by lightning, it's the safest orifice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 Rofl do you not laugh when you are typing that stuff? Lol you are crazy! Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 All our grid models are worthless. I don't think grid models are going to be a lot of help here. The Canadians are reporting tremendous circulation moving in from the Arctic. In Siberia, there's a low-pressure system unlike anything we've seen and Austraila just saw the strongest typhoon ever recorded. The NAM just dropped 250" of rain here over the next 84 hours, but it's probably overdone. Cut it in half and go with it. 125" is nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Rofl do you not laugh when you are typing that stuff? Lol you are crazy! Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using Tapatalk 2 Who's ROFL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 It's amazing how it does that every day, twice a day, and it's even worse at the height of spring. I bet it would be a fun day trip to witness this freak occurrence (that isn't really freak since it happens with such regularity). Nice. I see what you did there, jburns. Well, his post was an exact quote from the movie, so I don't think I did very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 Rofl do you not laugh when you are typing that stuff? Lol you are crazy! Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using Tapatalk 2 You need to get out more. From official lightning survival info. "If there is no shelter, crouch down, grab your ankles and bend forward, so that your head is not the highest part of your body and your head does not touch the ground. Do not lie flat on the ground." http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/weather_thunder.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 9, 2013 Author Share Posted April 9, 2013 Rofl do you not laugh when you are typing that stuff? Lol you are crazy! Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using Tapatalk 2 You need to get out more. From official lightning survival info. "If there is no shelter, crouch down, grab your ankles and bend forward, so that your head is not the highest part of your body and your head does not touch the ground. Do not lie flat on the ground." http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/weather_thunder.shtml :huh: Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted April 9, 2013 Share Posted April 9, 2013 You need to get out more. From official lightning survival info. "If there is no shelter, crouch down, grab your ankles and bend forward, so that your head is not the highest part of your body and your head does not touch the ground. Do not lie flat on the ground." http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/html/hazards/weather_thunder.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Rofl, was Liesl's boyfriend in the Sound of Music. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Turns out some here actually have a crush on me not just my forecasts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Amarillo, TX set a record high of 89 today now under a winter weather advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 Amarillo, TX set a record high of 89 today now under a winter weather advisory. Pshht not more amazing then the severe thunderstorm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 Pshht not more amazing then the severe thunderstorm warnings. what's amazing is 90 degrees in DC tomorrow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 what's amazing is 90 degrees in DC tomorrow!! Wow really? We have 86 here in the forecast. You guys are warmer than us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted April 10, 2013 Share Posted April 10, 2013 TWC has forecast of 90, For DC .Avg high for the date is 65. Hotter than my area for tomorrow . Hopefully that keeps up all summer. They can have all the heat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 10, 2013 Author Share Posted April 10, 2013 SPC ****ed up with the FL tornado threat and today. So much for strong tornadoes today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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